This week saw 10 new polls from four different polling companies, testing five distinct political scenarios.

News Recap:
The Haredi parties have not rejoined the government, and as a result, the Knesset enters its recess after failing to vote on most of its spring session agenda. In a bid to bring the Haredim back, the Likud faction elected MK Boaz Bismuth to replace Yuli Edelstein as Chairman of the Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee. The internal vote broke down as follows:

  • 29 votes (70.73%) for Bismuth
  • 4 votes (9.76%) for Edelstein
  • 8 members (19.51%) abstained, did not vote, or were absent

Meanwhile, Likud MK Hanoch Milwidsky, who abstained in the Bismuth vote, was tapped to replace UTJ MK Moshe Gafni as Chairman of the Appropriations Committee.

How It Played Out in the Polls:
Did Edelstein’s ouster shift public opinion? Netanyahu and Bennett remain neck and neck in the Prime Minister suitability polls. Likud and Bennett 2026 continue to battle for first place. Notably, Bennett now has a path to forming a coalition without the Arab parties in both the Maariv and Maagar Mochot polls.

Golan and Lieberman are neck and neck for third place. Smotrich clears the electoral threshold in 7 of the 10 polls, edging out Gantz, who passes it in 6. Meanwhile, the new Miluim Party is polling strongly—at 7 to 10 seats.

The Eisenkot effect appears to be fading. A party led by Gadi Eisenkot would earn 6 seats according to Panels and 4 seats according to Maagar Mochot. Direct Polls and Filber didn’t even test the scenario. (It’s also worth noting that Filber has split from his previous polling partner at Direct Polls and now operates independently.)

What to Expect Next:
In the coming week, expect the House Committee to approve the appointments of Bismuth and Milwidsky. There’s also chatter about a special plenum session to pass select legislation.

As I predicted, the government survived the Spring Session and is now safe from automatic dissolution until October 20, 2025—effectively ensuring elections will be held in 2026. By law elections must be held by October 27, 2026. If a 2026 budget is not passed by March 31, 2026, elections must be held by June 30, 2026. If the Knesset votes for early elections, Israeli law requires Election Day to occur 3 to 5 months after the law is passed.

Key to understanding the polls below:
Poll #1: The i24NEWS survey was conducted by Direct Polls on July 23, 2025, with 633 respondents. The statistical sampling error is ±3.8%.
Poll #2: The Filber poll for Channel 14 was conducted on July 24, 2025, contacting 568 adults. No margin of error was reported.
Poll #3: The Panels poll for Maariv was conducted between July 23-24, 2025, involving 501 respondents. The maximum sampling error is ±4.4%.
Poll #4: The Maagar Mochot poll for Channel 13 was conducted on July 23, 2025, with a sample of 504 respondents and a statistical margin of error of ±4.4%. Refer to the previous post on Wednesday for additional questions.

Knesset Mandate Distribution (Weekly Polls Comparison)

PartyPoll 1APoll 1BPoll 2APoll 2BPoll 3APoll 3BPoll 3CPoll 4APoll 4BPoll 4C
Likud27253433252424242525
Bennett 20262624—16242222243125
The Democrats11101613111010111010
Yisrael Beitenu129158121110101010
Shas991011101010101010
United Torah Judaism8888777777
Otzma7666777776
Yesh Atid549699896—
Ra’am5566556444
Hadash–Ta’al4455555666
Religious Zionism665400—2.8%44
Blue and White2.3%—4454442%2.2%
Balad2.8%—2.6%2.5%———2.3%2.3%2.3%
New Miluimnikim Party—10————7———
New Eisenkot Party—————6—4——
Yesh Atid (Eisenkot + Lapid)—————————13

Prime Minister Suitability + Additional Question

MatchupBennettNetanyahuEisenkotDon’t Know
Bennett vs Netanyahu (Poll 1C)44%43%—13%
Eisenkot vs Netanyahu (Poll 1C)—47%37%16%
Netanyahu vs Bennett (Poll 3D)43%45%—12%

Maariv Poll Question: Was the replacement of Yuli Edelstein with Boaz Bismuth as Chair of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee appropriate or inappropriate?

  • 52% Inappropriate.
  • 24% Appropriate.
  • 24% Don’t Know.