It is impossible to calculate an average of 11 different polls from five polling companies covering five different types of scenarios, and that is without pointing out the week’s political developments that changed on a daily basis.

News recap: The coalition did not vote on a bill to regulate the recruitment of Haredim. United Torah Judaism resigned from its position in the government and coalition. Shas resigned from most of its positions in the government but retained its positions in the coalition. Both Smotrich and Ben-Gvir are threatening to leave the government if they do not like the ceasefire agreement being formed with Hamas. On the opposition side, Eisenkot took a cheap shot at Bennett during the Calcalist conference. In addition, Hadash-Taal leader Odeh managed to survive the attempt to oust him from the Knesset.

How it played out in the polls: Continuing the trend since Eisenkot’s split from Gantz, in most polls neither Netanyahu nor Bennett manage to reach 61 seats for a stable coalition without an Arab party. Likud remains the largest party in all polls, except for a scenario poll in which Eisenkot is running as Bennett’s number 2. There is no poll or scenario poll that would oust Bennett from the leadership of the opposition bloc. In a head-to-head poll conducted by Kantar, Bennett leads Netanyahu by 39%-35%.

In scenarios where Eisenkot does not run, there is a race for third place between Golan and Lieberman. Both Smotrich and Gantz pass the threshold in most of the six polls. Smotrich does not pass in the Kantar and Gantz in two Direct Polls.

In scenarios where Eisenkot does run, the gap between Likud and Bennett widens (unless Eisenkot runs with Bennett). In four out of the five polls, Gantz does not pass the threshold, he passes in the Maariv poll. Lapid falls below the threshold in the Direct Polls. Smotrich does not pass the threshold in the three Midgam polls.

What to expect: Although the coalition no longer has a majority heading into the last week before the recess, the government is not expected to fall. The no-confidence motions on Monday are the last chance to bring down the government before October 20, and they are expected to be defeated. The voting this week on various bills will be interesting to follow. In addition, we will see whether Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Yuli Edelstein will submit a bill to regulate the recruitment of Haredim before the recess or whether he will be fired by the Prime Minister.

Possible developments during the recess include a ceasefire agreement with Hamas, the Haredi parties joining the coalition following a new draft law that was agreed upon, Eisenkot’s decision on his political future, the Arab parties agreeing to unite under the Joint List, Likud’s final approval or rejection of a merger with New Hope, and Bennett officially announcing his candidacy for prime minister.

Key to understanding the polls below:
Poll #1: i24NEWS / Direct Polls, 525 people and 4.2% margin of error. Two scenarios – Eisenkot doesn’t run vs Eisenkot runs with Bennett + question on support for dismissing the Attorney General.
Poll #2: Channel 12/Midgam, sample size and margin of error not listed. Three scenarios – Eisenkot runs alone, Eisenkot and Lapid, Eisenkot and Bennett.
Poll #3: Zman Yisrael/TOI/Takiata, 404 people and 4.8% margin of error. One scenario – Eisenkot doesn’t run + question on most influential issue for voters.
Poll #4: Channel 14/Direct Polls, 531 people, margin of error not listed. Two scenarios, neither with Eisenkot, one with Bennett and one without Bennett.
Poll #5: Maariv/Panels, 506 people and 4.4% margin of error. Two scenarios, with Eisenkot and without Eisenkot + 4 questions.
Poll #6: Kantar/Attila Somfalvi, sample size and margin of error not listed. One scenario – Eisenkot doesn’t run + questions on national inquiry commission and suitability for Prime Minister.

Table #1: Polls without Eisenkot

Party1A3A4A4B5A6A
Likud323034352626
Bennett222618—2223
The Democrats13913161011
Yesh Atid4768811
Yisrael Beiteinu10109161111
Shas118101099
United Torah Judaism878878
Otzma Yehudit656676
Ra’am555655
Hadash-Ta’al455555
Blue and White3%42.9%565
Religious Zionism545540
Balad3%02.4%2.3%1.8%0

Table #2: Polls with Eisenkot

Party / Scenario1B (Bennett + Eisenkot)2A (Eisenkot Solo)2B (Eisenkot + Lapid)2C (Bennett + Eisenkot)5B (Eisenkot Solo)
Likud3327282826
Bennett 20262519202918
Eisenkot (Solo)—11——9
Yesh Atid2.8%91997
The Democrats121212129
Yisrael Beiteinu910101010
Shas118888
United Torah Judaism87887
Otzma Yehudit76667
Ra’am65555
Hadash-Ta’al45555
Religious Zionism52.9%2.8%2.9%4
Blue and White2.7%2.6%1.7%2.8%5
Balad3%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.8%

Table 3: Additional Questions

PollQuestionResults
1CSupport for Dismissing the Attorney GeneralYes: 49% / No: 50% / Don’t Know: 1%
3BMost Influential Issue for VotersGaza War: 33.42%, Haredi Draft Exemption: 22.03%, Cost of Living: 19.31%, Governance: 12.13%, Iranian Threat: 9.9%, Not Voting: 3.22%
5CDoes exemption from army harm national security?Yes: 57% / No: 32% / Don’t Know: 11%
5DWill the Gaza war achieve its goals?Won’t: 44% / Will: 42%
— Among coalition voters: 73% think it will succeed
— Among opposition voters: 70% think it won’t succeed
5ESupport for early electionsSupport: 48% / Oppose: 33% / Don’t Know: 19%
5FSupport intervention in Syria to protect DruzeSupport: 47% / Oppose: 27% / Don’t Know: 25%
6BShould there be a National Inquiry Commission after 7/10?Yes: 77% / No: 13% / Don’t Know: 10%
6CSuitability for Prime MinisterBennett: 39% / Netanyahu: 35% / Don’t Know: 26%