Jeremy's Knesset Insider

This post will present and analyze the various polls released over the weekend.

The Knesset went through an eventless week. With a Haredi boycott that extended from preliminary votes to all coalition votes, the coalition was forced to remove all of its bills from the agenda. The Knesset’s Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee published its agenda for next week without the draft bill, so the boycott could expand to other options such as voting in favor of opposition bills this week and perhaps supporting a no-confidence motion in the final week of the session. The Knesset enters recess on July 27.

Netanyahu, who spent the week in Washington working on the hostage deal, will have to address and resolve the issues with his coalition partners. Shas and United Torah Judaism are both pushing for a vote on a version of a draft bill that they approve will pass before the recess. RZ and Otzma are both pushing against various proposals that would end the war in Gaza while Hamas is still in power in the Strip. For now, both Gur’s representation in UTJ and Noam remain outside the coalition. Finally, Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope party is still awaiting approval of the Likud merger deal in the Likud Central Committee.

In the opposition, two former Blue and White MKs returned to the Knesset in place of Gadi Eisenkot and Matan Kahana, who resigned to seek other opportunities ahead of the next elections. Eisenkot remains uncertain about his next move. Polls indicate whatever scenario Eisenkot chooses, he will fail to attract votes from the Netanyahu bloc. For the first time, a potential Eisenkot-Lapid-Golan list has been polled, with the main conclusion being that it would take Gantz below the threshold. Bennett remains Netanyahu’s main rival, as illustrated by a Panels poll, in which Bennett 2026 leads Likud by two seats.

Four polls have been published in the past 24 hours. Panels conducted a poll for Maariv among 501 people with a margin of error of 4.4%. Tatika conducted a poll for Zman Yisrael/Times of Israel among 404 people with a margin of error of 4.8%. Direct Polls conducted a poll for Channel 14 among 531 people without publishing a margin of error. Ipanel Poll conducted a poll for Yedioth Ahronoth and Ynet among 997 people without publishing a margin of error.

Poll #1: Panels/Maariv Poll

Bennett 2026 returns to the largest party and opens a two-seat lead over Likud. Smotrich, who threatened to leave the coalition if his demands are not met, now passes the threshold. This is significant because Bennett’s bloc drops to 59 seats when Smotrich passes the threshold and Netanyahu’s bloc increases to 51.

Party	Current Seats	Panels Poll (Seats)
Bennett 2026	(new)	26
Likud	36	24
Yisrael Beiteinu	6	10
Democrats	4	10
Shas	11	9
UTJ	7	7
Otzma	6	7
Yesh Atid	24	7
Blue & White	8	7
Raam	5	6
Hadash–Ta’al	5	4
RZ	7	4
Balad	0	2.2% (below threshold)

Poll #2: Tatika/TOI Poll

If Eisenkot runs alone, the Bennett bloc will receive 58 seats, compared to 57 seats if Eisenkot joins Lieberman, Golan, or Lapid+Golan. In a scenario where Eisenkot runs alone, there are many parties in danger of falling below the threshold – Eisenkot will receive 5 seats, Lapid will receive 5 seats, and Gantz will receive 4 seats.

The Lieberman+Eizenkot list would give the party an additional seat beyond what they would each receive separately; Bennett would lose two seats. The Eisenkot+Golan list would also gain an additional seat beyond what they would each receive separately, with Bennett and Lieberman each losing a seat. In the new Eisenkot+Lapid+Golan “big bang” scenario, this would give them nine additional seats beyond what each would receive separately, Gantz falling below the electoral threshold, Bennett losing four seats, Lieberman losing two, and Shas gaining a seat at the expense of Likud.

Party	Current Seats	TOI Poll	E+Lieberman	E+Golan	E+Lapid +Golan
Likud	36	32	32	32	31
Bennett 2026	(new)	26	24	25	22
Yisrael Beitenu	6	10	16	9	8
Shas	11	9	9	9	10
Democrats	4	8	8	14	N/A
UTJ	7	7	7	7	7
Otzma	6	5	5	5	5
Yesh Atid	24	5	5	5	27
Raam	5	5	5	5	5
Eisenkot Party	—	5	N/A	N/A	N/A
Hadash–Ta’al	5	4	5	5	5
Blue & White	8	4	4	4	0
RZ	7	0	0	0	0
Balad	0	0	0	0	0

Poll #3: Direct Polls/Channel 14

Direct Polls show that Bennett 2026 will receive two seats from the coalition, one from Likud and one from Smotrich. In addition, Bennett will receive five seats from Golan, three from Lieberman, three from Lapid and two from Gantz.

Party	Current Seats	Direct Polls (W/Bennett)	Direct Polls (W/O Bennett)
Likud	36	33	34
Bennett 2026	(new)	15	—
Yisrael Beiteinu	6	11	14
Shas	11	11	11
Democrats	4	11	16
UTJ	7	8	8
Otzma	6	6	6
Yesh Atid	24	5	8
Raam	5	5	5
Hadash–Ta’al	5	5	5
Blue & White	8	5	7
RZ	7	5	6
Balad	0	2.40%	2.30%

Poll #4: Ipanel/Yedioth Ahronoth & Ynet Poll

Most Israelis support ending the war, oppose Trump’s comments about cancelling Netanyahu’s trial, and remain divided in their opinions about the overall state of the country.

Question	Response
Do you agree with the demand to return all hostages even at the cost of stopping the fighting?	Agree – 74% Disagree – 19% Don’t know – 7%
Do Trump’s remarks about canceling Netanyahu’s trial represent a legitimate opinion or improper interference?	Improper interference – 59% Legitimate opinion – 31% Don’t know – 10%
What is your opinion on the general state of Israel?	Not good – 36.3% So-so – 32.7% Good – 30.7% Don’t know – 0.3%

Additional Questions to Panels/Maariv Poll (Poll #1):

Israelis are unsure what Eisenkot should do, about half of them are optimistic about a hostage deal in the coming days and more Israelis believe that Netanyahu is more committed to returning the hostages than Trump.

Question	Response
Who do you think Gadi Eizenkot should join forces with for the upcoming elections?	Don’t know – 34% Bennett – 27% Run separately – 21% Liberman – 9% Lapid – 9%
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the implementation of the hostage deal in the coming days?	Optimistic – 47% Pessimistic – 37% Don’t know – 16%
Who do you think is more committed to bringing back the hostages from Gaza, Netanyahu or Trump?	Netanyahu – 51% Trump – 34% Don’t know – 15%