Wow. There’s a lot to unpack. Let’s start with the news from Monday that Gadi Eisenkot announced his resignation from the National Unity Party, which is returning to the previous Blue and White brand. Eisenkot did not immediately decide where he would go next. Also, on Monday, the Knesset House Committee advanced the possibility of dismissing Hadash MK Ayman Odeh. There are reports that Hadash, Taal, Raam and Balad are negotiating the return of the Joint List
We have three different polling companies that released polls on Tuesday. Zman Yisrael (Times of Israel) posted a Tatika poll of 404 people with a 4.8% margin of error. Channel 12 broadcast a Midgam poll of 502 people and a 4.4% margin of error. Channel 13 broadcast a Maagar Mochot poll without publishing the sample size or margin of error.
The three polls provided several scenarios. The first scenario is if Eisenkot runs alone. The second scenario is if Eisenkot agrees to be Bennett’s number 2. The third scenario is if Eisenkot agrees to lead Yesh Atid with Lapid as his number 2. In addition, Channel 12 asked questions on the Prime Minister suitability and Channel 13 asked questions that are at the top of the agenda. I have provided an average for each table to illustrate a more balanced picture, rather than allowing a single poll to dominate the others.
There will be more polls in the coming days, but the main conclusion, unless the data changes, is that Eisenkot is not bringing votes from the coalition bloc and must choose to join an existing party to prevent the split of his bloc that could lead Gantz to fall below the threshold.
Scenario #1: Eisenkot leads new party
The main result of Eisenkot’s departure is that Likud now has a four-seat lead over Bennett. This weekend Bennett had just narrowed the post-war gap. It is important to note that Eisenkot’s party holds an average of eight seats and Blue and White is falling to the threshold (falling below the threshold in the Channel 13 poll).
| Party | TOI | Ch12 | Ch13 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 29 | 26 | 25 | 26.7 |
| Bennett 2026 | 25 | 22 | 21 | 22.7 |
| Shas | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9.7 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 8 | 9 | 11 | 9.3 |
| Democrats | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9.0 |
| Eisenkot Party | 7 | 8 | 9 | 8.0 |
| UTJ | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7.3 |
| Yesh Atid | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6.7 |
| Otzma | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6.3 |
| Raam | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.0 |
| Hadash-Taal | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.0 |
| Blue & White | 4 | 5 | 2.4% | 4.0 |
| Religious Zionist | 0 | 2% | 4 | — |
| Balad | 0 | 2% | 0 | — |
Scenario #2: Eisenkot #2 in Bennett 2026
In this scenario, the average indicates that Bennett wins over Likud by 3.7 seats. Blue and White falls to the threshold (falling below the threshold in the Channel 12 poll).
| Party | TOI | Ch12 | Ch13 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett 2026 + Eisenkot at #2 | 29 | 32 | 31 | 30.7 |
| Likud | 30 | 27 | 24 | 27.0 |
| Shas | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9.7 |
| Democrats | 9 | 11 | 9 | 9.7 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 8 | 9 | 11 | 9.3 |
| UTJ | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7.3 |
| Yesh Atid | 6 | 8 | 7 | 7.0 |
| Otzma | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6.3 |
| Raam | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.0 |
| Hadash-Taal | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.0 |
| Blue & White | 5 | 2.6% | 4 | 4.0 |
| Religious Zionist | 0 | 1.9% | 1.9% | — |
| Balad | 0 | 2.0% | 0 | — |
Scenario #3: Eisenkot leads Yesh Atid, Lapid is #2
In this scenario, Likud leads Bennett by an average of five seats. Eisenkot and Lapid come in third. Blue and White falls to the threshold (below the threshold in the Channel 13 poll).
| Party | TOI | Ch12 | Ch13 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 29 | 26 | 26 | 27.0 |
| Bennett 2026 | 22 | 21 | 23 | 22.0 |
| Yesh Atid (led by Eisenkot) | 15 | 18 | 14 | 15.7 |
| Shas | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9.7 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 8 | 9 | 11 | 9.3 |
| Democrats | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8.3 |
| UTJ | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7.3 |
| Otzma | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6.0 |
| Raam | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.0 |
| Hadash-Taal | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.0 |
| Blue & White | 6 | 4 | 3.2% | 4.0 |
| Religious Zionist | 0 | 0 | 4 | — |
| Balad | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
Scenario #4: Eisenkot doesn’t run
This is the only scenario not covered by all three companies. Likud leads Bennett by two seats. Lieberman and Golan are tied for third place.
| Party | Ch12 | Ch13 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 26 | 25 | 25.5 |
| Bennett 2026 | 24 | 23 | 23.5 |
| Yisrael Beitenu | 10 | 12 | 11.0 |
| Democrats | 12 | 10 | 11.0 |
| Shas | 9 | 10 | 9.5 |
| Yesh Atid | 9 | 8 | 8.5 |
| UTJ | 8 | 7 | 7.5 |
| Otzma | 6 | 7 | 6.5 |
| Raam | 5 | 5 | 5.0 |
| Hadash-Taal | 5 | 5 | 5.0 |
| Blue & White | 6 | 4 | 5.0 |
| Religious Zionist | 0 | 4 | — |
| Balad | 0 | 3.1% | — |
Additional Questions:
Prime Minister Suitability Polls
Channel 12 polls show that Bennett remains Netanyahu’s closest one-on-one opponent. Eisenkot is doing better than Lapid, but not by much.
| Candidate | Poll 1 | Poll 2 | Poll 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu | 37% | 40% | 42% |
| Bennett | 37% | — | — |
| Eisenkot | — | 27% | — |
| Lapid | — | — | 23% |
| Neither | 22% | 27% | 32% |
| Don’t know | 4% | 6% | 3% |
Channel 13 polls show that most Israelis oppose Trump’s intervention in Netanyahu’s trial, oppose ending Netanyahu’s trial without his political departure, and support ending the war and returning the hostages. Public opinion is undecided about ending Netanyahu’s trial in exchange for his departure from politics.
| Question | Support (%) | Oppose (%) | Don’t Know (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump intervening in Netanyahu’s trial | 34% | 53% | 13% |
| End Netanyahu trial without political exit | 34% | 52% | 14% |
| End Netanyahu trial in return for exit from politics | 38% | 41% | 21% |
| End the war & return hostages vs. extend operation in Gaza | 64% (Ceasefire & Hostages) | 26% (Extend War) | 10% |
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 