Jeremy's Knesset Insider

This week saw 10 new polls from four different polling companies, testing five distinct political scenarios.

News Recap:
The Haredi parties have not rejoined the government, and as a result, the Knesset enters its recess after failing to vote on most of its spring session agenda. In a bid to bring the Haredim back, the Likud faction elected MK Boaz Bismuth to replace Yuli Edelstein as Chairman of the Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee. The internal vote broke down as follows:

• 29 votes (70.73%) for Bismuth
• 4 votes (9.76%) for Edelstein
• 8 members (19.51%) abstained, did not vote, or were absent

Meanwhile, Likud MK Hanoch Milwidsky, who abstained in the Bismuth vote, was tapped to replace UTJ MK Moshe Gafni as Chairman of the Appropriations Committee.

How It Played Out in the Polls:
Did Edelstein’s ouster shift public opinion? Netanyahu and Bennett remain neck and neck in the Prime Minister suitability polls. Likud and Bennett 2026 continue to battle for first place. Notably, Bennett now has a path to forming a coalition without the Arab parties in both the Maariv and Maagar Mochot polls.

Golan and Lieberman are neck and neck for third place. Smotrich clears the electoral threshold in 7 of the 10 polls, edging out Gantz, who passes it in 6. Meanwhile, the new Miluim Party is polling strongly—at 7 to 10 seats.

The Eisenkot effect appears to be fading. A party led by Gadi Eisenkot would earn 6 seats according to Panels and 4 seats according to Maagar Mochot. Direct Polls and Filber didn’t even test the scenario. (It’s also worth noting that Filber has split from his previous polling partner at Direct Polls and now operates independently.)

What to Expect Next:
In the coming week, expect the House Committee to approve the appointments of Bismuth and Milwidsky. There’s also chatter about a special plenum session to pass select legislation.

As I predicted, the government survived the Spring Session and is now safe from automatic dissolution until October 20, 2025—effectively ensuring elections will be held in 2026. By law elections must be held by October 27, 2026. If a 2026 budget is not passed by March 31, 2026, elections must be held by June 30, 2026. If the Knesset votes for early elections, Israeli law requires Election Day to occur 3 to 5 months after the law is passed.

Key to understanding the polls below:
Poll #1: The i24NEWS survey was conducted by Direct Polls on July 23, 2025, with 633 respondents. The statistical sampling error is ±3.8%.
Poll #2: The Filber poll for Channel 14 was conducted on July 24, 2025, contacting 568 adults. No margin of error was reported.
Poll #3: The Panels poll for Maariv was conducted between July 23-24, 2025, involving 501 respondents. The maximum sampling error is ±4.4%.
Poll #4: The Maagar Mochot poll for Channel 13 was conducted on July 23, 2025, with a sample of 504 respondents and a statistical margin of error of ±4.4%. Refer to the previous post on Wednesday for additional questions.

Knesset Mandate Distribution (Weekly Polls Comparison)

Prime Minister Suitability + Additional Question

Maariv Poll Question: Was the replacement of Yuli Edelstein with Boaz Bismuth as Chair of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee appropriate or inappropriate?

• 52% Inappropriate.
• 24% Appropriate.
• 24% Don’t Know.

It’s been a while since the last Maagar Mochot poll was released, so I’m sharing a special post. There are three scenarios: Eisenkot runs alone, Eisenkot runs with Bennett and Eisenkot runs with Lapid.

In the scenario where Eisenkot runs alone, Bennett 2026 and Likud are tied at 24 seats each. The contest for third place is tight between Golan, Lieberman, and Deri. Eisenkot secures four seats, passing the threshold, while Smotrich does not.

If Eisenkot joins Bennett, Lapid loses three seats, Golan drops one seat, Gantz falls below the threshold, and Smotrich crosses it. In the scenario where Eisenkot joins Lapid, their combined seat total remains the same as if they ran separately; however, Gantz falls below the threshold, and Smotrich passes it.

The Bennett Bloc holds 62 seats in the first scenario, compared to 57 and 58 seats in the other two scenarios.

More analysis and additional polls will be available this weekend.

The Maagar Mochot poll for Channel 13 was conducted on 23 July 2025 among a sample of 504 respondents and has a statistical margin of error of ±4.4%.

Additional Questions:

It is impossible to calculate an average of 11 different polls from five polling companies covering five different types of scenarios, and that is without pointing out the week’s political developments that changed on a daily basis.

News recap: The coalition did not vote on a bill to regulate the recruitment of Haredim. United Torah Judaism resigned from its position in the government and coalition. Shas resigned from most of its positions in the government but retained its positions in the coalition. Both Smotrich and Ben-Gvir are threatening to leave the government if they do not like the ceasefire agreement being formed with Hamas. On the opposition side, Eisenkot took a cheap shot at Bennett during the Calcalist conference. In addition, Hadash-Taal leader Odeh managed to survive the attempt to oust him from the Knesset.

How it played out in the polls: Continuing the trend since Eisenkot’s split from Gantz, in most polls neither Netanyahu nor Bennett manage to reach 61 seats for a stable coalition without an Arab party. Likud remains the largest party in all polls, except for a scenario poll in which Eisenkot is running as Bennett’s number 2. There is no poll or scenario poll that would oust Bennett from the leadership of the opposition bloc. In a head-to-head poll conducted by Kantar, Bennett leads Netanyahu by 39%-35%.

In scenarios where Eisenkot does not run, there is a race for third place between Golan and Lieberman. Both Smotrich and Gantz pass the threshold in most of the six polls. Smotrich does not pass in the Kantar and Gantz in two Direct Polls.

In scenarios where Eisenkot does run, the gap between Likud and Bennett widens (unless Eisenkot runs with Bennett). In four out of the five polls, Gantz does not pass the threshold, he passes in the Maariv poll. Lapid falls below the threshold in the Direct Polls. Smotrich does not pass the threshold in the three Midgam polls.

What to expect: Although the coalition no longer has a majority heading into the last week before the recess, the government is not expected to fall. The no-confidence motions on Monday are the last chance to bring down the government before October 20, and they are expected to be defeated. The voting this week on various bills will be interesting to follow. In addition, we will see whether Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Yuli Edelstein will submit a bill to regulate the recruitment of Haredim before the recess or whether he will be fired by the Prime Minister.

Possible developments during the recess include a ceasefire agreement with Hamas, the Haredi parties joining the coalition following a new draft law that was agreed upon, Eisenkot’s decision on his political future, the Arab parties agreeing to unite under the Joint List, Likud’s final approval or rejection of a merger with New Hope, and Bennett officially announcing his candidacy for prime minister.

Key to understanding the polls below:
Poll #1: i24NEWS / Direct Polls, 525 people and 4.2% margin of error. Two scenarios – Eisenkot doesn’t run vs Eisenkot runs with Bennett + question on support for dismissing the Attorney General.
Poll #2: Channel 12/Midgam, sample size and margin of error not listed. Three scenarios – Eisenkot runs alone, Eisenkot and Lapid, Eisenkot and Bennett.
Poll #3: Zman Yisrael/TOI/Takiata, 404 people and 4.8% margin of error. One scenario – Eisenkot doesn’t run + question on most influential issue for voters.
Poll #4: Channel 14/Direct Polls, 531 people, margin of error not listed. Two scenarios, neither with Eisenkot, one with Bennett and one without Bennett.
Poll #5: Maariv/Panels, 506 people and 4.4% margin of error. Two scenarios, with Eisenkot and without Eisenkot + 4 questions.
Poll #6: Kantar/Attila Somfalvi, sample size and margin of error not listed. One scenario – Eisenkot doesn’t run + questions on national inquiry commission and suitability for Prime Minister.

Table #1: Polls without Eisenkot

Table #2: Polls with Eisenkot

Table 3: Additional Questions

This post will present and analyze the various polls released over the weekend.

The Knesset went through an eventless week. With a Haredi boycott that extended from preliminary votes to all coalition votes, the coalition was forced to remove all of its bills from the agenda. The Knesset’s Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee published its agenda for next week without the draft bill, so the boycott could expand to other options such as voting in favor of opposition bills this week and perhaps supporting a no-confidence motion in the final week of the session. The Knesset enters recess on July 27.

Netanyahu, who spent the week in Washington working on the hostage deal, will have to address and resolve the issues with his coalition partners. Shas and United Torah Judaism are both pushing for a vote on a version of a draft bill that they approve will pass before the recess. RZ and Otzma are both pushing against various proposals that would end the war in Gaza while Hamas is still in power in the Strip. For now, both Gur’s representation in UTJ and Noam remain outside the coalition. Finally, Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope party is still awaiting approval of the Likud merger deal in the Likud Central Committee.

In the opposition, two former Blue and White MKs returned to the Knesset in place of Gadi Eisenkot and Matan Kahana, who resigned to seek other opportunities ahead of the next elections. Eisenkot remains uncertain about his next move. Polls indicate whatever scenario Eisenkot chooses, he will fail to attract votes from the Netanyahu bloc. For the first time, a potential Eisenkot-Lapid-Golan list has been polled, with the main conclusion being that it would take Gantz below the threshold. Bennett remains Netanyahu’s main rival, as illustrated by a Panels poll, in which Bennett 2026 leads Likud by two seats.

Four polls have been published in the past 24 hours. Panels conducted a poll for Maariv among 501 people with a margin of error of 4.4%. Tatika conducted a poll for Zman Yisrael/Times of Israel among 404 people with a margin of error of 4.8%. Direct Polls conducted a poll for Channel 14 among 531 people without publishing a margin of error. Ipanel Poll conducted a poll for Yedioth Ahronoth and Ynet among 997 people without publishing a margin of error.

Poll #1: Panels/Maariv Poll

Bennett 2026 returns to the largest party and opens a two-seat lead over Likud. Smotrich, who threatened to leave the coalition if his demands are not met, now passes the threshold. This is significant because Bennett’s bloc drops to 59 seats when Smotrich passes the threshold and Netanyahu’s bloc increases to 51.

Poll #2: Tatika/TOI Poll

If Eisenkot runs alone, the Bennett bloc will receive 58 seats, compared to 57 seats if Eisenkot joins Lieberman, Golan, or Lapid+Golan. In a scenario where Eisenkot runs alone, there are many parties in danger of falling below the threshold – Eisenkot will receive 5 seats, Lapid will receive 5 seats, and Gantz will receive 4 seats.

The Lieberman+Eizenkot list would give the party an additional seat beyond what they would each receive separately; Bennett would lose two seats. The Eisenkot+Golan list would also gain an additional seat beyond what they would each receive separately, with Bennett and Lieberman each losing a seat. In the new Eisenkot+Lapid+Golan “big bang” scenario, this would give them nine additional seats beyond what each would receive separately, Gantz falling below the electoral threshold, Bennett losing four seats, Lieberman losing two, and Shas gaining a seat at the expense of Likud.

Poll #3: Direct Polls/Channel 14

Direct Polls show that Bennett 2026 will receive two seats from the coalition, one from Likud and one from Smotrich. In addition, Bennett will receive five seats from Golan, three from Lieberman, three from Lapid and two from Gantz.

Poll #4: Ipanel/Yedioth Ahronoth & Ynet Poll

Most Israelis support ending the war, oppose Trump’s comments about cancelling Netanyahu’s trial, and remain divided in their opinions about the overall state of the country.

Additional Questions to Panels/Maariv Poll (Poll #1):

Israelis are unsure what Eisenkot should do, about half of them are optimistic about a hostage deal in the coming days and more Israelis believe that Netanyahu is more committed to returning the hostages than Trump.

This post will present the updated Knesset Jeremy average, the various polls published over the weekend, and analyses.

Three weeks from Sunday, the Knesset will enter its summer recess. If during those three weeks, Prime Minister Netanyahu manages to resolve the coalition crisis surrounding the Haredi Draft and the potential ceasefire in Gaza, he will be able to comfortably head out to the opening session after the recess on October 20, 2025. If he succeeds in doing so, this will ensure that elections will be held in 2026, and the main question will be when the elections will be held and what will be the reasoning? If the Knesset votes for early elections in October so the elections can be held as early as January, the elections must be held by October 27, 2026.

Before we get ahead of ourselves and mark three years into the current Knesset term, it’s worth discussing this week’s news, the main electoral development since Bennett registered his party for the next elections. With four polls, we can now better examine the impact of Eisenkot’s departure and the disintegration of what was the National Unity Party.

Although many expect Eisenkot to join an existing party, the anti-Netanyahu bloc currently consists of six parties. Bennett 2026 remains the clear leader of the group, but Eisenkot’s support numbers have eroded some of Bennett’s support and allowed Netanyahu’s Likud to become the largest party. Gantz is the clear loser, finding his Blue and White around the threshold in every poll, or in the case of Channel 13, below it.

The Channel 12 poll from my previous post illustrates that Bennett is not only the largest party in his bloc, he remains the only candidate who can go head-to-head with Netanyahu. Eisenkot’s debut, with an average of seven and a half seats, is disappointing and could put Gantz and perhaps even Lapid in danger of falling below the threshold. One way to unify the votes is the talk about trying to create a single center-left party that would include Eisenkot, Golan, Lapid and Gantz. This scenario has not yet been surveyed in public polls, but it seems unlikely that so many egos would find themselves under one party.

Below is a table of the updated average. Afterwards, I will then analyze the Panels poll.

Updated Knesset Jeremy Average

Panels conducted a poll on July 2-3 of 511 respondents and a 4.4% margin of error.

Panels examined five different scenarios. In the main scenario, Eisenkot’s party receives six seats, four from Bennett, one from Lieberman and one from Gantz. Perhaps most importantly, Eisenkot’s entry also pushes one seat from Bennett to Likud. In a scenario where Eisenkot joins Bennett as No. 2, the list gains a seat, but Bennett and Lieberman lose about a third of a seat to Smotrich, allowing him to pass the threshold. Gantz loses two seats while Golan, Lieberman and Ben-Gvir each lose a seat.

In the scenario where Eisenkot joins Lieberman, their list wins 17 seats and comes in third, Smotrich again passes the threshold. If Eisenkot joins Lapid in Yesh Atid so that the party receives 15 seats for third place, the same number of seats would exist if the two had run separately. In the final scenario where Eisenkot does not run, Bennett is only three seats behind Likud, Smotrich is below the threshold, and Gantz sits more comfortably with six seats.

Panels/Maariv Polling

The poll also found that half of Israelis support early elections while a third oppose them. The poll asking how the country should deal with Netanyahu’s trial is less clear-cut.

Additional Questions:

Channel 14 broadcast a poll by Direct Polls. The company did not conduct a poll that included Eisenkot, despite his split from Gantz, but presented Bennett as a scenario poll.

Direct Polls/Channel 14 Poll