15 years ago today, March 31st, 2010, I launched KnessetJeremy.com

For the past 15 years, Knesset Jeremy has been the leading source of Israeli polling data in English. That’s because of your readership. I want to take this opportunity to thank you. I also want to thank you for encouraging me to come back and post more frequently. I will do my best to remain your Knesset Insider.

This Week…

This week Kantar, Direct Polls and Panels have released polls. Kantar, Panels and Midgam have also released additional questions and/or scenario polls. The current poll average is being updated to reflect their latest polls along with polls from last week by Midgam and Mager Makot, which are also reflected in the previous average. Most poll companies assume that Bennett will indeed run.

Biggest Takeaway: Smotrich under the threshold

Finance Minister Smotrich’s party does not pass the election threshold in any poll or scenario poll this week, with the exception of Direct Polls, which some experts have linked the development directly to the budget passage.

Approval Ratings:

Panels examined Prime Minister Netanyahu’s approval rating:
66% Disapprove, 31% Approve and 3% Don’t know.

Midgam, which did not survey mandates this week, surveyed the approval rating for the Netanyahu Government and received similar results:
70% Disapprove, 27% Approve and 3% Don’t know.

Head-to-Head:

The Kantar poll has Netanyahu beating Gantz and narrowly losing to Eisenkot. Bennett leads Netanyahu by 10%.
41% Other answers, 33% Netanyahu, 26% Gantz
35% Eisenkot, 33% Other answers, 32% Netanyahu
41% Bennett, 31% Netanyahu, 28% Other answers

In the Midgam poll, Netanyahu defeated Golan, Gantz and Lapid. In addition, Netanyahu led Eisenkot by 5% and Bennett by 7%.
37% Netanyahu, 37% Neither, 21% Golan, 5% Don’t know
35% Neither, 34% Netanyahu, 26% Gantz, 5% Don’t know
35% Netanyahu, 33% Neither, 26% Lapid, 6% Don’t know
34% Netanyahu, 29% Eisenkot, 29% Neither, 8% Don’t know
38% Bennett, 31% Netanyahu, 24% Neither, 7% Don’t know

Scenario: Eisenkot replaces Gantz as head of the National Unity Party

The Kantar scenario poll showed no difference in the blocs if Eisenkot replaces Gantz. Eisenkot would win 16 seats compared to Gantz’s 9. With Eisenkot as leader – Bennett loses 3, Golan 2, Lieberman and Lapid lose 1 each.

This is another poll that shows that Eisenkot’s popularity remains within the opposition bloc. Another key factor is that in this poll Bennett leads Netanyahu 24-22 if he runs against Gantz, but Netanyahu leads Bennett 22-21 if Eisenkot runs. The poll was conducted on March 25, and surveyed 638 people with a margin of error of 4%.

A Tale of Two Polls

The latest Panels poll shows Naftali Bennett’s new party with a record 27 seats, compared to Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, which remains at 19 seats for the second week in a row. If Bennett does not run, then Liberman will receive 8 seats, Gantz 7, Lapid 4 and Golan 2 seats. In addition, Likud will receive 4 seats and one seat each for Shas and Otzma. Smotrich is approaching the threshold if Bennett doesn’t run. This is another poll that shows Bennett attracting support from the coalition parties.

Likud is still in the low 20s in other polling companies such as Kantar, Maagar Mochot and Midgam, where Bennett is generally receiving a more modest 24 seats.

On the other hand, Direct Polls have Likud at 31 seats this week. Although it is down from 34 seats in their previous poll, the company continues to present results that are completely different from the other companies. In their latest poll, Lieberman reaches 19 seats, compared to Gantz who drops to 7 seats and Lapid who drops to only 5 seats. Not only does Smotrich cross the threshold in this poll, but he also receives 5 seats.

The Average

Party Current Seats Projected Seats KJ AVG Previous
Naftali Bennett Party 0 24 24.3 24
Likud (Netanyahu & Saar)  36 21 21 20.7
Democrats (Golan) 4 11 11 10
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 24 10 10.3 9.5
Shas (Deri) 11 10 9.5 9.2
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman) 6 9 8.8 9
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir) 7 9 8.5 8.5
National Unity (Gantz & Eisenkot) 8 9 8.5 8.2
UTJ (Goldknopf & Gafni) 7 7 7.3 7.2
Hadash-Taal 5 5 5 5.5
Raam (Abbas) 5 5 5 4.7
Religious Zionism (Smotrich) 6 0 2.84% 4
Balad 0 0 1.90% Under

What’s Next?

Following the merger with New Hope, and with the budget and judicial reform behind them, the coalition will end the winter session with today’s final plenary session and go into recess. I expect there will be more polls this weekend that should reflect public opinion following the winter session. The Knesset will return from recess for the summer session on May 4.