Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Since my last average, we have had a number of political developments. First, Likud and New Hope agreed to a merger. Second, Otzma rejoined the government following the renewed war in Gaza. Third, the firing of the head of the Shin Bet. Fourth, the government is moving forward with the process of firing the Attorney General. Finally, the Knesset agenda has been settled – the vote on the budget will be held on Tuesday (less than a week before the date that will trigger automatic elections), the judicial reform will be decided on Wednesday, and the Haredi Draft Bill is expected to be advanced but not voted on before the Knesset goes into recess on April 2.

In short, Netanyahu’s main opposition will be either Avigdor Lieberman – or Naftali Bennett if he chooses to run. If Bennett does run, he will have the largest party and it will be easier for him to form a coalition.

Current Polls

Five polls have been conducted since the last average by Panels, Kantar, Midgam and Direct Polls. Four scenario polls have been conducted by Panels, Midgam and Mager Mohot. Kantar and Direct Polls did not poll any scenarios. Maager Mohot polled assuming Bennett is running and surveyed another scenario with Eisenkot at the top of the National Unity ticket.

The main conclusions from the regular polling are that Lieberman replaced Gantz as the second-largest party and would lead his bloc in the next Knesset, and that Ben-Gvir received a bump after rejoining the coalition at the expense of Smotrich, who also fell below the threshold in the Midgam poll.

Gantz’s trend of losing votes to Lieberman – or to Bennett if he runs – is not new, but for the first time in nearly two years, the National Unity Party has dropped back to third place in the polls. What is more interesting is that Smotrich, who was right that the government would renew the war, is the one losing votes to Ben-Gvir, who left the coalition.

Direct polls conducted head-to-head polls in which Netanyahu received 47% to 20% for Lapid and the same 47% to 17% for Gantz. There was no head-to-head between Netanyahu and potential candidates like Bennett or Eisenkot, who were more successful in other polling companies.

Scenario Polls:

If Bennett does run, he will have the largest party. In his best showing this week, Bennett has 25 seats in the latest Maariv panel poll compared to Likud falling to 19, the first time Likud has dropped below 20 seats in a while. There is no poll this week in which Bennett receives fewer seats than Likud or any opposition party receives more than 12 seats.

Bennett’s return would come at the cost of Lieberman losing 6.4 seats and Gantz losing 6.2 seats – but what makes his run interesting is his ability to cut into the coalition bloc’s support. Compared to the average polls without Bennett, the average polls with Bennett show Likud dropping 5.5 seats and Smotrich dropping to reach the threshold (he falls under in the Midgam poll).

In the Maagar Mochot scenario poll in which Eisenkot leads the National Unity Party instead of Gantz, the party receives 12 seats. In the scenario, Eisenkot gains two seats, but Otzma also gains two seats. Bennett, Lieberman, Lapid and Golan would each lose a seat. This is another poll that shows that an Eisenkot run would win more seats for his party, but it would come mainly at the expense of the opposition bloc.

What’s Next?

We’ll see how Israeli public opinion reacts in the next week and a half before the Knesset goes into recess. Now that the coalition is back to 68 seats, I expect the coalition to pass the budget and the judicial reform. The next coalition crisis will likely be over the Haredi Draft Bill, although a crisis could arise if there is another hostage exchange agreement that leads to a ceasefire and/or the release of more Hamas terrorists.

The Knesset will return from recess for the summer session on May 4th, and will be in session for less than 3 months until July 27th (with a Shevuot break in between). If the government survives this session, it will go into recess until October 19th – which will also likely ensure that elections will be held in 2026. Because of this, extreme pressure will likely be exerted on the coalition from May to July, from within and without. UTJ leader Goldknopf has set a deadline of May 31st for passing the Haredi Draft Bill.