This week we will be less than 600 days away from the next scheduled election. Based on your feedback, I will return to posting polls on a weekly basis and analyzing from time to time. As we get closer to the next election, my posts will become more frequent, especially if there is a snap election.
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Yes please!
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Greenberg Research, principal
Democracy Corps
Climate Policy & Strategy
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Yalla
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How are your polls showing a much bigger difference than the ones being used by Channel 14.
The reason that I am questioning your results is due to the fact that in the last elections their polls were pretty much the most accurate verses everyone else.
As someone who is very much involved in American politics, where all of the polls showed that the democrats and Kamala were going to win the 2024 elections. With the republican polls showing the results which ended up being closer to the final results.
The vast amount of the American media is very biased against the conservatives, this is my opinion seems to be quite widespread throughout the world.
This is my opinion…
I am not posting “my polls”. I haven’t conducted any polls in this cycle and generally when I do so they are private polls and not public. Channel 14 uses Direct Polls. If they had conducted a poll during the time period, I would have included them as I always do. In the United States so I would refer you to polling average sites such as Real Clear Polling that know how to take into account such parameters as sample size, margin of error and a general weighing of the various polling models across the various platforms (telephone, cellphone, text, etc). In Israel with so many parties across the spectrum it is pretty rare to see a specific polling company consistently “helping” a specific political party. I’ve found that during the election cycle, generally speaking, polling companies have more than one client because there are more parties than polling companies. We are not in an election season yet, so it is a bit early to see this sort of bias play out.
Thank you, I was mostly just curious on your methodology, and you are correct we are out a bit, but as we all know in Israeli politics expect the unexpected…
In my experience in Israeli politics polls are a bit more complex because of the dozens of parties participating, I use the example of in the US with the basic 2 party system with the rest of the fringe usually playing spoiler, although for the most part other than maybe the Bush / Clinton race where it could be said that Ross Perot pretty much handed the White House to Bill Clinton.
I believe that in 2016 Jill Stein really didn’t have much affect on the campaign, the margins were to big.
2024, all of the internal polls were pretty close to the final outcome…
Keep up the good work…