Midgam conducted a poll of 505 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on January 16 2020.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
32 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
13 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [07] Yamina (Bennett)
08 [11] Labor-Gesher-Meretz (A.Peretz)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
2.1% [00] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
0.0% [00] Others
Phase 2 Recommendations:
57 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
55 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
08 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)
*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.
Additional Questions:
Who is more qualified to serve as Prime Minister?
40% Netanyahu, 38% Gantz, 22% Don’t know
Should the Knesset open immunity proceedings on Netanyahu case before elections?
51% Yes, 33% No, 16% Don’t know
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
I have a hunch that Yitsrael Beitenou will now get 9 seats, Shas 9, UTJ 7, Yamina 5, snd Otzmah 4-5. Labor/Gesher/Meretz 7, Joint List 14. For Likud and Kahol/Lavan, it is a battle to win the most of the remaining ~ 64 seats. Likud now has a chance at being the biggest oarty.
This is only a hunch, it is unscientific, but by the end of the month I will have scientific assessments.
Likud now has a chance at being the Biggest Party. Yitzrael Beitenou will pull seats from Kahol/Lavan and Yamin Hadash. And Joint List will pull seats from Kahol/Lavan and Labor/Gesher/Meretz. While Otzmah will pull seats from Haredim and Yamina, not Likud.
Yeah, i bet many Religious Zionists will be annoyed with their parties for abandoning Oztma and/or joining with Bennet. It could be they have a chance now of passing…
I think the whole thing was a mistake. They should have had a religious Zionist party and a righty party (Bennet) separate. It was probably Likud/Netanyahu making sure to get all the non-religious votes for themselves so they could be the biggest party…
Otzma need to pull out and ask their voters to support Likud – this is the Key to this election.
never gonna happen… they are a bit crazy in that they will fight to the death, even if they know they have no chance… (can’t say i blame them this time, they were stabbed in the back…)
agreed they were stabbed in the back, I am not sure if Likud could make an offer behind the scenes to make it worthwhile for them to back Likud.
As things stand now, the only way Likud has even a sliver of a chance of putting together a right-wing government is for Otzma to pass the threshold running on its own. Otzma has never been able to do that. If Otzma truly cares about getting a right-wing government, they should drop out now and endorse the United Right. (And really, couldn’t Otzma voters feel sufficiently represented by the United Right? Is there that much difference between Otzma’s positions and those of Bezalel Smotrich or Orit Stroock?). If Otzma stays in, the right wing camp runs the real risk of seeing Lieberman finally teaming up with B&W and achieving a center-left government.
On the left, I would watch for some disaffected Meretz supporters to vote for the Joint List, because the Labor-Gesher-Meretz Party is not sufficiently against the so-called “Occupation” for them.
From an outsider perspective i would agree with you. On the other hand, to quote yourself, “If the righty parties truly cared about getting a right-wing government, they should have let Otzma join. (And really, couldn’t United Right voters feel sufficiently represented by the Otzma party? Is there that much difference between Bezalel Smotrich or Orit Stroock’s positions and those of Otzma?)
When a party is stabbed in the back 3 elections in a row, you shouldn’t blame them, even if they are doing more bad than good. Blame Bennet, blame Smotrich, blame Peretz, but down blame Otzma…
The infighting needs to end.
I think the situation is different. If Otzma were to drop out, its supporters would still have a satisfactory party to vote for and the right wing would not lose votes. By contrast, if Bennett were to have joined forces with Otzma, he would have lost a number of voters at the more moderate end of his coalition who, for various reasons, feel that they cannot vote for Otzma. If those voters went to Likud, then no harm, no foul. But if those voters went to Yisrael Beitenu, it would be a huge problem.
The whole is not always equal to the sum of its parts. For example, when Kulanu recombined with Likud, Likud did not get all the Kulanu votes. Some Kulanu voters were moderate-right types who did not like Netanyahu, and when Kulanu recombined with Likud, those voters went to B&W. Same thing would have happened if Yamina combined with Otzma, except the voters would go to Likud or YB.
The same thing may happen on the left. I suspect that some of the most leftist Meretz voters don’t feel comfortable with Labor (and, especially, Gesher) because those parties are too Zionistic and not sufficiently opposed to what they call “The Occupation”, and will vote for the Joint List. When you combine parties, you don’t necessarily keep all your voters.
I agreed with you before that in theory you are correct. I’m just taking human emotions into account. A normal human being cannot be back stabbed so many times and still think logically… It’s just not gonna happen. Gvir would have to be either an angel or autistic to act like you are suggesting (and to do what is right for the right…)
Have to agree with you Moe, say we all agree that he is extreme right but he is still a Patriot unlike those on the extreme left. So this is a great shame for the right.
So after all the moves many right- wing voters that are fed up with Netanyahu will find themselves without a party to vote for. I know that my vote will either be wasted on Alpers new party or go to Liebermann.
I believe you can actually see this in the polls. When polling the religious right and the libertarian / liberal right seperatly you get more votes. I could never vote for Peretz / Smotrich and I’m sure a lot of the religious right have simila issues with the more liberal views of Bennet’s faction.