Phase 1 Prediction Analysis
Yesterday, I posted the final Knesset Jeremy Polling Average for 2019.
Tonight, I am posting the Knesset Jeremy Model Prediction for 2019.
| Place | Party | Leader | KnessetJeremy Prediction Model | Change | Last KnessetJeremy AVG |
| 1st | Likud | Netanyahu | 30 | 1 | 29 |
| 2nd | Blue & White | Gantz | 29 | -1 | 30 |
| 3rd | Labor | Gabbai | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 4th | Hadash-Taal | Odeh | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 5th | United Torah Judaism | Litzman | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 6th | United Right List | Peretz | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 7th | HaYamin HeHadash | Bennett | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 8th | Meretz | Zandberg | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 9th | Shas | Deri | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 10th | Zehut | Feiglin | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 11th | Kulanu | Kahlon | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 12th | Yisrael Beitenu | Liberman | 4 | 4 | 0 (3) |
| 13th | Raam-Balad | Abbas | 4 | 4 | 0 (3) |
| 14th | Gesher | 27 Others | 0 | 0 | 0 (2) |
| Right-Religious Bloc | 66 | 0 | 66 | ||
| Center-Left-Arab Bloc | 54 | 0 | 54 |
Few quick notes:
*For those who are wondering, I am expecting a 2-seat margin of error for the larger parties, a 1-seat margin of error for the smaller parties and two “exceptions”. I am expecting there to be a major swing where one party receives a majority of undecided voters last minute at the expense of another party that will lose a significant number of votes.
Phase 1 Recap:
#1 Likud: 30 seats:
How we got here: It took Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu six elections as Likud’s leader (1996, 1999, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2015) to reach 30 seats. After a four-year term and an election season of ups and downs it appears that Netanyahu will be right back where he started – 30 seats and the largest party in Knesset.
Why they could get more: If Netanyahu’s decision to repeat his 2015 campaign strategy of a last-minute effort to attract right-wing voters from his bloc to Likud is a success. The danger of this approach is that if he succeeds too much, he might send some of his coalition partners under the electoral threshold, which could put his re-election as Prime Minister in jeopardy.
Why they could get less: If a significant number of Likud voters feel that Netanyahu has won and choose to skip the voting booth on their way to the beach.
#2 Blue & White: 29 seats:
How we got here: After years of scenario polls the “big four” of Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashekenazi joined up to create the latest mega-party that markets itself as an alternative to Netanyahu. Gantz hopes to succeed where Tzipi Livni’s Kadima in 2009 & Issac Herzog’s Zionist Union failed.
Why they could get more: If Gantz is able to convince more anti-Netanyahu voters that he is the only alternative to Netanyahu.
Why they could get less: If Labor & Meretz voters decide to bolt back to their previous parties because they believe Gantz might take their votes and sit in a coalition government with Netanyahu.
#3 Labor: 9 Seats:
How we got here: Avi Gabbai has brought his party back from polls that had his party within the margin of error of not crossing the threshold to what is now expected to be the third largest party in the next Knesset.
Why they could get more: If Blue & White stumble during the stretch run there are many undecided voters on the center-left bloc that name Labor as their second choice.
Why they could get less: If voters decide that they must flock to the largest party in the bloc.
#4 Hadash-Taal: 7 seats:
How we got here: Odeh & Tibi joined to form what is viewed as a more moderate political home for the non-Jewish population.
Why they could get more: If the turnout of the non-Jewish population is higher than expected.
Why they could get less: If Hadash-Taal voters vote for Raam-Balad because they fear that the latter might not pass the threshold.
#5-tie UTJ: 6 seats:
How we got here: Agudat Yisrael agreed to Degel HaTorah’s terms and for the first time the two Ashkenazi parties that make up the faction are running on a 50%-50% slate. Eli Yishai’s endorsement was also helpful.
Why they could get more: If the general turnout is lower than expected so UTJ is in a great spot to win a seventh seat.
Why they could get less: If a larger number of undecided Haredi voters choose to vote for non-Haredi parties.
#5-tie URP: 6 seats:
How we got here: Bayit Yehudi, Tekuma & Otzma agreed to run a joint faction. Likud gave Bayit Yehudi an additional slot on their list to make up for the voters that can’t stomach voting for Otzma.
Why they could get more: If the last-minute push to get Otzma candidate Itamar Ben Gvir in the Knesset is successful.
Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.
#5-tie HaYamin HeHadash: 6 seats:
How we got here: Naftali Bennett & Ayelet Shaked, the two most popular ministers in a series of polls before the elections, formed a new party 100 days before the election with a 50% religious – 50% secular slate.
Why they could get more: Early polls had the party in double digits and there are many undecided voters who list them as their second option.
Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.
#8-tie Meretz: 5 seats:
How we got here: Tamar Zandberg has made the case that Meretz is the only party in Israel that labels itself as a left-wing party and that she will only sit in a Gantz Government.
Why they could get more: If Meretz is able to convince undecided center-left voters that they are the only ones that can pull Gantz to the left.
Why they could get less: If voters decide that they must flock to the largest party in the bloc.
#8-tie Shas: 5 seats:
How we got here: Deri is the only coalition partner that has Netanyahu in his campaign posters. This time around most of the campaign has been devoted to bring-out-the-vote.
Why they could get more: If additional Sephardi voters decide that Aryeh Deri represents them best or that the late Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef still expects them to vote for Shas.
Why they could get less: If a significant number of voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.
#8-tie Zehut: 5 seats:
How we got here: In 2015 then MK Moshe Feiglin fared poorly in the primary and was placed #36 on the Likud list. Likud activist Shai Malka lost his bid for the #30 young slot to Oren Hazan. They left to establish Zehut.
Why they could get more: Although the great majority of their support is from the right, they have the potential to be the surprise of this election because they are pulling voters from across the spectrum.
Why they could get less: If Feiglin makes a gaffe in the final days.
#11-tie Kulanu: 4 seats:
How we got here: Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon won 10 seats in the 2015 election. He was not able to fulfill most of his campaign promises and is now fighting for his political life.
Why they could get more: If soft-right voters that have left him for Likud or Blue & White return home.
Why they could get less: If additional voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.
#11-tie Yisrael Beitenu: 4 seats:
How we got here: Avigdor Liberman quit as Defense Minister and exited the government the day after the second-round of municipal elections. After a few weeks with a slim 61-59 majority Netanyahu decided to call early elections. Liberman is now fighting for his political life.
Why they could get more: If FSU immigrants that have left him for Likud or Blue & White return home.
Why they could get less: If additional voters are convinced to leave for the Likud.
#11-tie Raam-Balad: 4 seats:
How we got here: Following the success of The Joint List in the previous election Raam & Balad took a hard line in negotiations in efforts to maximize the number of slots they would have on the next joint slate. Taal left first and Hadash followed. Raam & Balad hold 8 of the 13 Joint List’s current seats but are now fighting for their political survival.
Why they could get more: If efforts to convince non-Jewish voters that voting for them is necessary or else, they will fall under the threshold.
Why they could get less: If turnout among Raam’s Bedouin sector is lower than expected.
#14 Gesher and others: 0 seats:
How we got here: Orly Levy broke off from Yisrael Beitenu. Early on it appeared like she could be the surprise of the election, but Blue & White stole her thunder.
Why they could get more: In a lower turnout situation Gesher has a decent shot at passing.
Why they could get less: You can’t get less than zero seats. Gesher didn’t pass the electoral threshold in 13 of the last 14 polls.
Right-Religious Bloc: 66
Likud 30 – UTJ 6 – URP 6 – HaYamin HeHadash 6 – Shas 5 – Zehut 5 – Kulanu 4 – Yisrael Beitenu 4
How we got here: Instead of six there are now eight parties in the bloc. For the most part Netanyahu’s core base has remained in Likud and the rest of the bloc have rearranged themselves. Zehut’s support from center-left voters have replaced the voters from the right-religious bloc that have moved to Blue & White.
Why they could get more: If HaYamin HeHadash, Zehut, Kulanu & Yisrael Beitenu pick up undecided voters from Blue & White.
Why they could get less: If Kahlon and/or Liberman fall under the threshold.
Center-Left-Arab Bloc: 54
Blue & White 29 – Labor 9 – Hadash-Taal 7 – Meretz 5 – Raam Balad 4
How we got here: In 2015 there were four parties, but in 2019 there are now five parties that are ruling out joining a Netanyahu Government as part of their campaign. Blue & White has gained some votes from the right-religious bloc, although they have lost many of the soft right votes they had six weeks ago.
Why they could get more: If Center-left Zehut voters decide to move back to their bloc.
Why they could get less: If Raam-Balad falls under the threshold.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Jeremy, you’re doing a great job!
Thank you Jerrmy, you’re doing a great job. Nevertheless, I think Zehut won’t endorse Bibi, and one or two of the Moshe Cachlon Kulanu party/Liberman’s Israel Beitenu won’t pass the treshold. Therefore, my bet is that Rivlin will ask Gantz to form a coalition.
And even if Rivlin will ask Gantz. How exactly is Gantz going to form a coalition Zandberg, Feiglin, Balad and Litzman ??!!!!?? get real. If we like it or not the only person who will have a chance to form a coalition is Netanyahu. I do however agree that it wont last long and we will have new elections within the year unless Gantz agrees to join a Netanyahu led government.