Smith conducted a poll of 1097 people with a 3% margin of error that was published by the Jerusalem Post on April 5 2019.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
28 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
27 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
09 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
06 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
05 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
05 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
05 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
04 [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
Under 3.25% electoral threshold:
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch) and others
64 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
56 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B
So if likud wins by 1 does N get to form a government?
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The PM is chosen through a 3 phase process.
First phase is Tuesday in the Knesset election.
Second phase is the vote at the President’s Residence by the parties that pass threshold.
Third phase is when the Knesset votes in the new government in a confidence vote (most likely, the first week of June).
You can read more in this piece from before the Blue & White merger:
https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/
Don’t forget to add the latest Miskar poll (4,500 respondents. ZEHUT 8 seats!)
https://www.jewishpress.com/news/politics/latest-miskar-poll-4500-respondents-bibi-31-gantz-28-feiglin-8-bennett-7/2019/04/04/