KnessetJeremy Schedule:
Friday Afternoon: I posted the last Weekly Average which you can find below. Today is the last day that public polls can be published or broadcast. Internal/private polling will continue until Election Day but it will be illegal for parties to post the results.
Saturday Night: I will post my final prediction based on my model that takes into account invalid votes, disqualified votes from parties that are not expected to pass 3.25% threshold, voter exchange/surplus agreements, and perhaps most importantly my momentum model to resolve issues regarding undecided voters.
Sunday: I will post my Phase 1 (Knesset Election) Prediction Analysis.
Monday: I will post my Phase 2 (Nominations at President’s Residence) Prediction Analysis.
Tuesday Morning: Before Polls open I will post my Phase 3 (Confidence Vote in the Knesset) Prediction Analysis.
Tuesday – Election Day: No post activity during the voting from 7 AM-10 PM Israel time.
Tuesday Late Night: I will post exit polls and initial results through the night including analysis.
Wednesday: I will post the unofficial election results pending the double envelopes (soldiers, hospitals, diplomats, election staff, prisons, etc.).
Thursday: I will post the unofficial election results including the double envelopes.
April-May-June: I will cover the developments of Phase 2 & Phase 3 through the confidence vote of Israel’s new government which I predict will take place on the first week of June.
Note for Media: Please credit my work if you are going to use it. My time is limited, but I can provide exclusive quotes, and I still have a few windows of time available for TV appearances. Jeremy@KnessetJeremy.com
Knesset Jeremy’s Weekly Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls
Current update: Saturday April 6 2019.
- The original post went out Friday afternoon. This updated version includes the last poll which was aired on Friday night. There was no change to the seat count that was posted yesterday.
| Place | Party | Leader | Seats | KnessetJeremy AVG | Change | Week 14 AVG | Current |
| 1st | Blue & White | Gantz | 30 | 29.7 | -0.8 | 30.5 | 11 |
| 2nd | Likud | Netanyahu | 29 | 28.3 | -0.4 | 28.7 | 29 |
| 3rd | Labor | Gabbai | 10 | 9.7 | 0.6 | 9.1 | 18 |
| 4th | Hadash-Taal | Odeh | 8 | 7 | -0.2 | 7.2 | 6 |
| 5th | United Torah Judaism | Litzman | 7 | 6.5 | -0.1 | 6.6 | 6 |
| 6th | United Right List | Peretz | 7 | 6.1 | 0 | 6.1 | 5 |
| 7th | HaYamin HeHadash | Bennett | 6 | 5.7 | -0.2 | 5.9 | 3 |
| 8th | Meretz | Zandberg | 6 | 5.6 | 0.5 | 5.1 | 5 |
| 9th | Shas | Deri | 6 | 5.3 | -0.1 | 5.4 | 7 |
| 10th | Zehut | Feiglin | 6 | 5.3 | 0.2 | 5.1 | 0 |
| 11th | Kulanu | Kahlon | 5 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 10 |
| 12th | Yisrael Beitenu | Liberman | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 5 |
| 13th | Raam-Balad | Abbas | 0 | 2.9 | 0 | 2.9 | 7 |
| 14th | Other | 27 Others | 0 | 0.3 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 8 |
| Right-Religious Bloc | 66 | 64.8 | 0.4 | 64.4 | 66 | ||
| Center-Left-Arab Bloc | 54 | 55.2 | -0.4 | 55.6 | 54 |
Note #1: The electoral voting threshold is equivalent to 3.25 percent of total votes, equivalent to approximately four parliamentary seats. Parties currently polling below the threshold, including parties listed as “other” are weighted down to zero in the polling average to allow this polling model to maintain a simplified 120-seat framework.
Note #2: This average is based on the last 14 polls that were released from Friday afternoon March 30 to Friday evening April 5 (3 Midgam, 3 Maagar Mochot, 3 Dialog/Panel Project HaMidgam, 2 Panels, 2 Smith, 1 Teleseker & 0 Direct Polls).
Note #3: For a better understanding of how a Prime Minister is elected read – Israeli politics ‘101’: Electing a prime minister and forming a government coalition – at: https://www.jns.org/israeli-politics-101-electing-a-prime-minister-and-forming-a-coalition/
Note #4: Voter exchange/surplus agreements have been signed between A) Labor & Meretz, B) HaYamin HeHadash & Yisrael Beitenu, C) Likud & United Right List, D) Shas & UTJ & E) Hadash-Taal & Raam-Balad.
Note #5: Kulanu passed the electoral threshold in 13 of 14 polls this week. Raam Balad passed in 10 polls, Yisrael Beitenu passed in 10 polls and Gesher passed in 1 poll this week.
Note #6: The right-religious bloc of Likud-UTJ-URL-HaYamin HeHadash-Shas-Kulanu-Yisrael Beitenu-Zehut is polling at a high of 69 and a low of 62. The center-left-Arab bloc of Blue & White-Labor-Hadash-Taal-Meretz (including Raam-Balad & Gesher when they pass the threshold) is polling at a high of 58 and a low of 51.
Note #7: Blue & White is the largest party in 9 of the 14 polls this week, Likud leads Blue & White in 4 polls, and one poll has them both tied.
Note #8: 47 parties registered to participate in the April 9 Election. 6 parties have withdrawn to date.
Compiled for the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS.org)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Jeremy, thanks for all of your posts and analysis. It is by far the best place to follow polling trends. The amount of data here is very impressive.I truly appreciate what you’ve done!
I too appreciate your polling and analysis. I’m in Canada and I must say I am surprised at how close the election seems to be. I thought Trump’s support would put Likud higher in the polls. It is a fascinating election from here. Thanks
Question: Apologies if this has been asked before but… why doesn’t Israel follow the system of other parliamentary democracies whereby there can be a minority government and only falls if there is a majority non-confidence vote? In other words, if the center and left parties have 55 seats and could be protected from a non-confidence vote by 7 Arab party votes, why is this not feasible? Why is there always the need to get to 61?
You need 61 MKs for a confidence motion. You also need 61 MKs for a non-confidence motion. There was a stretch of time during the second Rabin government in the 90s where the Arab parties protected the government by not voting against it during no-confidence motions. That scenario is helpful in the middle of a term, but it isn’t helpful for the start of a government.
I mean that would be correct strictly, but if they supported the government they would in theory vote for confidence in the government in a confidence and supply arrangement. Also , and obviously you are more the expert, but I believe that I saw it said that the government needs a majority of MKs to vote for confidence in the government, not 61. So in theory, they could take office with under 61 if it was still more than the opposition (due to let’s say, Balad, abstaining). Not too realistic at this juncture but right post indictment the numbers would have been there for that when Center-left-arab had 63-57 and they could have had a minority government with Balad (4) simply abstaining as Likud and partners only had 57 (so would have been 59-57 in favor of the government being formed).
Are you that confident in your predictions that you don’t plan on updating your phase 2 and 3 predictions after the elections? 😀
Especially because of the threshold, things could change quite a bit..
Weekly Graph:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d49cWZJMC3-5ZcaNh6MeVVg-EMdEPdRuaMZS3cPygeI
And the weekly graph from the 2015 elections with trends and final count:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EHmKO_-Na9lctths72K6bRR4gqs8VKChkatvotcqdjc
In 2015 the last poll of polls was on the dot for most parties, but notice how the pollsters missed Likud Labor and Bayit Yehudi.
I just want to say “thank you” for your work and these emails – they have been very interesting and helpful to me. And good luck to us all next week!
Sent from Mail for Windows 10
Thank you for all you do. I would love it if, by some miracle, the New Right landed 26 seats. 🙂
Another voice of gratitude for the important information you provide and your obviously very diligent, hard work.