Direct Polls conducted a poll of 735 people with a 3.8% margin of error for Kan (Channel 11) that was broadcast on Feb 21 2019.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
35 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
11 [06] Hadash-Taal
08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
07 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ (Litzman)
06 [07] Shas (Deri)
06 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Ari)
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
04 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
Under 3.25% electoral threshold:
2.4% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
2.1% [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)
2.1% [06] Raam-Balad (with Hadash)
1.9% [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
0.6% [–] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan)
00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai), Achi Yisraeli (Adina Bar Shalom) and others
62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
I really wonder why Gesher and Lehut didn’t try a ‘shotgun marriage’ since Jewish Home and Jewish Power did it. What did they have to lose? They could have split the top four slots.
Because they have absolutely nothing in common.
Can someone explain how it would work to have the Arab List in a governing coalition? Is it a realistic possibility? How would it work?
Like with Rabin’s govt they likely won’t join the coalition formally, but just vote to prop them up from the outside. Rabin’s coalition had 62 mandates and 5 Arab buffer votes outside the coalition.
Maybe Jeremy knows more, but I don’t think there’s ever been a minority govt (less than 61 mandates) that’s been propped up by outside Arab parties.
I would imagine it wouldn’t be the best optics for Gantz especially if he seeks to exchange land for peace or uproots settlements.
Looks like Kulanu will be erased. I think it’s voters will mostly panic and vote likud on election day.
I agree. I think Bibi would be smart to target Kulanu voters (along with Yachad and Zehut voters) and play on their fears of a leftist govt. They’re natural fits for the Likud party.
Outside of the Haredim, all of Bibi’s allies are at or near the threshold. Unlike in 2015, Bibi cannot afford to cannibalize the right wing vote. At the same time, there’s a very realistic scenario where the right gets around 62 seats but BW is ahead of Likud 5 or even more seats.
Dan, Hayamin Hehadash and the United Right are both polling well above the threshold, so I have to disagree that all of Bibi’s allies are at or near the threshold. Kulanu and YBA are close however.
I agree that Blue and White will likely win more seats than Likud, but polling consistently shows they won’t be able to form a coalition. I just can’t see Haredim and right wingers breaking ranks to sit with Yesh Atid, Meretz and Labor. They can just hold out and get the same ministries and portfolios, maybe more, from their ideological partner.
When it’s clear that Gantz and Lapid don’t have the mandates to form a coalition, Netanyahu will get the nod just as in the 2009 elections. Like most centrist parties in Israel, Blue and White will probably turn out to be all sizzle and no steak.
This is democracy at its best. As always it will be the charedim that decides who forms the next government.
If the whole center didn’t decide to form a grand anti bibi coalition that wouldn’t necessarily be the case.
Liberman or Kahlon may be the more likely coalition linchpin (if they cross the threshold). Don’t forget there’s alot of personal and policy animosity between Yesh Atid/Meretz and the Haredim, and less so between YBA and Kulanu.
While I hope it happens, I don’t see where Blue and White finds enough MKs to form a government.
Jeremy, Can you please provide the vote % for parties above the threshold as you have been doing for those below?
I get the public’s excitement over a new party like the Blue and White. But it doesn’t look like they have the seats to make a solid coalition. According to this poll, they essentially have 47 mandates (Blue and White, Labor, Meretz). Even with the Arab parties it’s only 58 and they’ll never sit in the coalition, just vote from the outside.
I don’t think the Haredim or right will sell out and sit with centrists, leftists and secularists. Maybe Liberman will cross over to spite the religious and Bibi.
Liberman just said he will not : https://www.timesofisrael.com/liberman-rules-out-sitting-in-government-led-by-gantz/
UTJ already said they will not join a government with Lapid. And of course the RZ will only recommand Netanyahu.
So Gantz & Lapid will never find enough partners. If they go left, they loose Shas and Kulanu. If they go right, they loose Meretz and the arab parties.
Missed that bit of news. Thank you. They’re certainly going to have a tough road ahead of them even if they pull big numbers. Pure speculation but I have to wonder if Labor will even sit with Blue and White. Perhaps they would be better off sitting in opposition and rebuilding their brand rather than rubber-stamping the people that stole their constituency.