Panel HaMidgam Project conducted a poll of 696 people with a 3.7% margin of error for Channel 10 that was broadcast on Oct 25 2018.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
30 [30] Likud
19 [11] Yesh Atid
14 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [24] Zionist Union
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [05] Meretz
07 [10] Kulanu
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [01] Orly Levy
04 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold
62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Scenario Poll: Likud led by Saar
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
25 [30] Likud led by Saar
19 [11] Yesh Atid
14 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
13 [08] Bayit Yehudi
12 [24] Zionist Union
08 [05] Meretz
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [01] Orly Levy
04 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold
62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Note: The polling average has been updated here: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/
I read an article, in a US publication, that suggested Ayelet Shaked moves to lead Likud. Is that something that could happen and if it did, what could that do to the odds?