Important Note: Originally I posted the poll that was broadcast which turned out to be the wrong poll. Their website provided the correct results.
Panels conducted a poll of 575 people for Walla that was broadcast on July 8 2018. They also conducted three additional scenario polls.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
35 [30] Likud
17 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [24] Zionist Union
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [05] Meretz
06 [10] Kulanu
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [01] Orly Levy
04 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Yachad, Yaalon, Zehut (as other) under threshold
68 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
52 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Scenario Poll #1: Livni leading Zionist Union
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
31 [30] Likud
16 [24] Zionist Union led by Livni
15 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [05] Meretz
06 [01] Orly Levy
05 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Yachad, Yaalon, Zehut (as other) under threshold
65 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
55 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Scenario Poll #2: New Ashkanazi Party
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
32 [30] Likud
15 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [24] Zionist Union
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [05] Meretz
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [–] New Ashkenazi Party
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [01] Orly Levy
04 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Yachad, Yaalon, Zehut (as other) under threshold
65 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
55 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Scenario Poll #3: Lapid + Kahlon + Ashkenazi Party
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
33 [30] Likud
29 [21] Yesh Atid + Kahlon + Ashkenazi
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [24] Zionist Union
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [05] Meretz
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [07] Shas
04 [01] Orly Levy
00 [–-] Yachad, Yaalon, Zehut (as other) under threshold
Additional Questions:
Who should be the next Opposition Leader?
31% None, 22% Yachmovich, 17% Don’t know, 15% Lapid, 15% Livni
Among Zionist Union voters: 41% Livni, 38% Yachmovich, 9% Lapid, 9% None, 3% Don’t know
Who should be the leader of the center-left bloc in the next elections?
19% Lapid, 15% Gantz, 14% Kahlon
Center-left voters: 34% Lapid, 18% Gantz, 16% Other/Don’t know, 12% Kahlon, 10% Livni, 8% Gabbai, 2% Asheknazi
*KnessetJeremy Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls HAS BEEN UPDATED at: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/
The results don’t make sense when you compare them. I think that the population samples aren’t varied enough.
I think much of the population simply doesn’t know who they are voting for until they are literally in the voting booth. Watching polls and results for 12 years now I think there are 7 surprise seats worth of these voters who often end up breaking as a block. They broke for likud last time, they broke for lapid two times ago and they broke for pensioners in 2005 for example. These voters are the reason these polls are always off…instead of just answering that they are still undecided they tell the pollsters they are voting for some random party.