Dialog conducted a scenario poll creating a new party list of Kahlon, Saar and Ashkenazi without deciding who would be the leader of the list and read the three names in a random order to each person. They asked 504 people that resulted in a 4.4% margin of error. Haaretz published the poll on March 24 2016
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
23 [10] New Kahlon+Saar+Ashkenazi List
22 [30] Likud
15 [24] Zionist Union
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
13 [11] Yesh Atid
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [05] Meretz
51 [57] Right-Religious
46 [53] Center-Left-Arab
23 [10] New Party
- Note: This means that the fictional party would take seven seats from the center-left bloc and six seats from the right-religious bloc.
Dialog also conducted a regular poll that was not published by Haaretz, although Haaretz did cite Likud, Yesh Atid, Zionist Union and Kulanu’s numbers including the significant movement in Bayit Yehudi and Yisrael Beitenu’s numbers.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
27 [30] Likud
20 [11] Yesh Atid
15 [24] Zionist Union
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [05] Meretz
67 [57] Right-Religious
53 [53] Center-Left-Arab
- Note: Lapid’s decline in the scenario poll presents us with the information there is a significant number of people who will vote for whoever has the best chance to defeat Netanyahu and they do not seem to be loyal.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
would the “kevakashatcha” party (ASK – Ashkenasi, Saar, Kahlon) be able to get Phase 2 and phase 3 in this scenario?
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On Thu, Mar 24, 2016 at 11:20 AM, Jeremys Knesset Insider wrote:
> Knesset Jeremy posted: “Dialog conducted a scenario poll creating a new > party list of Kahlon, Saar and Ashkenazi without deciding who would be the > leader of the list and read the three names in a random order to each > person. They asked 504 people that resulted in a 4.4% margin o” >
If I was building a Phase 2 scenario for this fictional list it would have a base of 51 seats (ASK+Lapid+Herzog) and would have to pull off one of two scenarios to get to 61. The list would either need to secure both Haredi list (Shas & UTJ) or both Liberman & Meretz. To reach Phase 3 you would need to have Lapid & Litzman or Liberman & Gal-On agree to sit with each other in the same coalition and I don’t see either as a likely scenario.
There is of course a scenario where Netanyahu’s base of 51 (Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Yisrael Beitenu, Shas, UTJ) receives the Phase 2 backing of either Herzog or Lapid to bloc the ASK list from reaching Phase 3. In a case like that whoever secured Netanyahu’s Phase 2 nomination would most likely stay in for Phase 3.
And the the “New Party’s” only realistic path to government is with Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Shas, and UTJ (69) who would recommend Netanyahu. There isn’t another coalition I can see. Lieberman and Meretz wouldn’t be in coalition. Nor would Lapid and the Haredi. The Joint List is radioactive. No matter how they keep rearranging the hypotheticals, the basic calculus is the same.
Many pollsters represent the minority lefties who are desperately trying to get rid of Netanyahu and creating all sorts of fictional scenarios.
As far as I can see the movements between Likud and BY are interconnected as are those between YA/ZU/KU. And despite Deri being the least popular minister , (he can’t win whatever he does with this mob unless he throws his hat in with the left) support for Shas seem immune to this.
The thorn in the side for a right -religious coalition is the animosity between Lieberman and Netanyahu which almost makes Deri and Yishai seem friends. In this respect and this respect only the 4 are true idiots.