Panels conducted a poll of 1027 people with a 3% margin of error that was taken out for Knesset Channel and released on March 10 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
21 [18] Likud
14 [20] Yesh Atid
13 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [11] Bayit Yehudi
09 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [10] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
00 [00] Green Leaf 1.2% under 3.25% threshold
00 [00] Ten other parties poled under 1%, four others were not polled
64 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
56 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
Additional Questions
How sure are you that you will vote for the party you selected?
UTJ 83% Certain, 8% Probably, 8% Unsure
Likud 72% Certain, 25% Probably, 3% Unsure
The Joint (Arab) List 71% Certain, 21% Probably, 8% Unsure
Bayit Yehudi 64% Certain, 28% Probably, 8% Unsure
Shas 64% Certain, 25% Probably, 11% Unsure
Yachad 63% Certain, 33% Probably, 5% Unsure
Zionist Union 61% Certain, 35% Probably, 5% Unsure
Meretz 59% Certain, 32% Probably, 10% Unsure
Yesh Atid 57% Certain, 33% Probably, 10% Unsure
Yisrael Beitenu 48% Certain, 45% Probably, 9% Unsure
Kulanu 31% Certain, 54% Probably, 16% Unsure
Average 61% Certain, 31% Probably, 8% Unsure
Among voters that are still undecided on their vote, who are you leaning towards if not the party you selected?
Likud voters- Bayit Yehudi 13%, Kulanu 13%
Yesh Atid voters – Zionist Union 38%, Kulanu 12%
Zionist Union voters – Yesh Atid 47%, Merertz 20%
Bayit Yehudi voters – Likud 33%, Kulanu 26%
Kulanu voters – Bayit Yehudi 28%, Yesh Atid 25%
Yachad voters – Bayit Yehudi 38%, Shas 38%
Yisrael Beitenu voters – Bayit Yehudi 33%
Shas voters – 30% Kulanu
Meretz voters – Zionist Union 88%
Who is more worthy between these two candidates to be Prime Minister: Benjamin Netanyahu or Yitzchak Herzog?
50% Netanyahu, 34% Herzog, 16% Don’t know
Who do you want your party leader to endorse at the President’s Residence (Phase 2)?
Yachad voters – 100% Netanyahu, 0% Herzog, 0% Don’t Care
Yisrael Beitenu voters – 100% Netanyahu, 0% Herzog, 0% Don’t Care
Bayit Yehudi voters – 96% Netanyahu, 4% Don’t care, 0% Herzog
UTJ voters – 71% Netanyahu, 14% Herzog, 14% Don’t Care
Shas voters – 67% Netanyahu, 20% Herzog, 13% Don’t Care
Meretz voters – 100% Herzog, 0% Netanyahu, 0% Don’t Care
Yesh Atid voters – 79% Herzog, 14% Netanyahu, 7% Don”t care
The Joint (Arab) List voters – 50% Herzog, 50% Don’t Care, 0% Netanyahu
Kulanu voters – 47% Herzog, 33% Netanyahu, 20% Don’t Care
How do you define yourself politcally? (from left to right)
Meretz voters – 76% Left, 18% Center-Left, 5% Center, 0% Center-Right, 0% Right
Zionist Union voters – 18% Left, 47% Center-Left, 25% Center, 7% Center-Right, 3% Right
Kulanu voters – 2% Left, 2% Center-Left, 29% Center, 39% Center-Right, 29% Right
Yesh Atid voters – 1% Left, 19% Center-Left, 39% Center, 36% Center-Right, 6% Right
Shas voters – 0% Left, 8% Center-Left, 23% Center, 19% Center-Right, 50% Right
UTJ voters – 0% Left, 4% Center-Left, 17% Center, 46% Center-Right, 33% Right
Likud voters – 0% Left, 1% Center-Left, 5% Center, 27% Center-Right, 67% Right
Yisrael Beitenu voters – 0% Left, 0% Center-Left, 9% Center, 27% Center-Right, 64% Right
Bayit Yehudi voters – 0% Left, 0% Center-Left, 2% Center, 18% Center-Right, 80% Right
Yachad voters – 0% Left, 0% Center-Left, 0% Center, 30% Center-Right, 71% Right
Undecided voters – 5% Left, 14% Center-Left, 25% Center, 33% Center-Right, 24% Right
Total – 8% Left, 15% Center-Left, 18% Center, 24% Center-Right, 35% Right
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
On radio this morning, they claimed polls aren’t reflecting the real position. Likud activists are really worried and as they believe they are five mandates behind. Also that Lapid may get 15 with Kachlon 10 and Lieberman will be king maker.
>
Or is it, decapitator?
Good one. Liberman is a fascist.
Zachary: I don’t like Lieberman, but in what way does he meet the definition of fascist?
He would be a fascist if he wanted to kill all Arabs. But he just wants to kill any Arabs who try to kill him. I think that makes him davka ‘reasonable’….:-)….
During Channel 2’s Debate, Leader of the JAL said in his speech that arabs are 20% of the citizens of israel and Liebermann interrupted him to say: BENTAYEM (for now)
This should give you an idea of what kind of reasonable person we’re dealing with.
According to this poll Right-Religious parties have 55 MK´s, and Center-Left-Arab parties have 56 MK´s. Kahlon 9 MK´s. It’s the first time that the second group have more MK´s than the first.
Center-Left (HaMahaneh HaTzioni, Yesh Atid, Meretz): 43 MK´s.
Right (Llikud, HaBait HaYehudi, Israel Beitenu, Yachad): 42 MK´s.
Arab parties: 13 MK´s.
Haredim (Shas, Yahadut Hatorah): 13 MK´s.
Kulanu: 9 MK´s.
Two questions:
1) The undecided voters of the second question are unsure voters or unsure and probably voters of the first question?
2) About the question “How do you define yourself politically? (from left to right)” there are not answers of the voters of the Joint List?
By the way, a interesting result about the “kingmaker” Kahlon voters:
Who do you want your party leader to endorse at the President’s Residence (Phase 2)?
Kulanu voters – 47% Herzog, 33% Netanyahu, 20% Don’t Care
1) It is a follow up of previous question for those who are not certain of their vote.
2) They didn’t poll The Joint List voters on that question.
To me some of the interesting stuff in this great poll is:
* Kahlon voters on Phase 2 – 47% Herzog, 33% Netanyahu, 20% Don’t Care
* Only 31% of Kluanu voters certain of their vote, about half of Labor undecided might vote for Yesh Atid
* Undecided votes in Likud, Kulanu, Yachad and Yisrael Beitenu all list Bayit Yehudi as their #1 alternative choice
Yesh Atid and Kulanu both seem to be the second choice of a lot of voters too. It seems like there are quite a few voters undecided that could go to (or leave) either party.
That’s more like it.
Yesh Atid seems to be pulling votes from Likud, which is somewhat surprising.
Is there a shy Yesh Atid factor going on, what causes them to come on late. Also, is there a tendancy for pollsters to start diverging big as the election approaches, the exact opposite occured in the US prior to the 2012 election.
At least according to the answers to the follow-up question, it seems that BY has a chance to pull votes from Kulanu, Yachad YB and Likud. Really hopes that it would happen…
Very interesting. Oddest fact to me: a plurality of kulanu voters prefer Herzog over BB. A little surprising.
I can think of two explanations:
1) Bibi has lost the “pocketbook” voters for whom the economy and the cost of living are te top priorities.
2) It’s a small sample and has a lot of random noise in it.
This poll is bad news. Israelis just don’t understand the hostility of President Obama. They can’t imagine how bad he’s going to be in the 2 years. If they understood, they would switch some of their votes back to the right from the center. Now is not the time to go rogue.
I disagree completely: some of the greatest hostility from Obama is coming as a result of Netanyahu’s actions (i.e. speaking to congress, not controlling west bank settlements, etc.)… A move from right to the center or even center-left would be necessary to decrease international tensions and make amends with the US. Netanyahu and Obama will never have a good relationship; Herzog is the best option for mending Israel-US relations, as well as Israel-Global relations, which is one of the most important things for the safety of Israel. Disclaimer: this is from an american perspective.
Zach – I’m coming from an American perspective too, but while I don’t agree, up until a few weeks ago, it would have been just interpretive of their behavior. Either of us could have been right, but I suspect we would both be taking the view that the president wasmostly adhering to traditional U.S. foreign policy goals. I now have a feeling that perspective may be wrong. This is long, but it is an alternate theory by a very good scholar, policy guy who I have been listening to for a while but didn’t put the pieces together: http://mosaicmagazine.com/essay/2015/02/obamas-secret-iran-strategy/. In essence, Doran is saying the President is and has been since day one in a major effort to overhaul our relationship with Iran and shift our support somewhat from Isreal/Sunnis to Iran. Nuclear weapons deal comes first. I do not know if he is right, but my kneejerk is that he makes a case Israelis should not ignore, because otherwise, the president’s foreign policy is incompetent and I do think leaping to that conclusion is wise. My only point is this: if Doran is right, there is nothing Isaac Herzog can do. The president will make nicer but go his merry way. Now, if there’s nothing anyone can do, that isn’t an argument to vote for either really, but the next question is who can deal with the other power centers in the United States better. I’m certain that is the Prime Minister, but my bigger issue is that no one in Israel should be so sure they have a friend in the White House, regardless of how they vote in this election. There is a really credible theory out there now that they don’t for reasons that would worry me, anyway.
Duh – left out a key word! I DON’T think leaping to the assumption that the president foreign policy is incompetent is wise.
I’d just add that the negotiations aren’t just with the US. They’re also with the UK, France, Germany, Russia and China. I’d imagine the leaders of those countries are unhappy with Netanyahu undermining their negotiations too.
You are so wrong issue with obama is not bibi but obama world view it could be anyone as pm obama has no respect for jewish state his upbringing is very liberal and anti jewish, as for world support world has always been against us, but today our trading with countries like india, japan, china, africa is growing to all time highs we don’t have to agree with world opinion america is in withdrawel and we will always have there support but we need a strong pm who will fight for our jewish state not palestianian state.
“his upbringing is very liberal”
Right… cause liberals have never supported Israel… ever…
There is no rift in US-Israel relations. The US is just facing a changing Middle East and is ruled by a group of Israel haters. A republican is likely in 2016 and he will be pro-Israel and put an end to this nonsense.
How is he “Not controlling West Bank settlements”? He’s even restricting building in Jerusalem.
Obama will be President for less than tow more yesrs, and he isn’t exactly popular in the US.
Obama is not hostile to Israel. He is hostile to an Israeli PM who has been hostile at every turn and doesn’t appreciate all Obama is doing to keep Israel safe. A non-agreement with Iran is dangerous for Israel. West Bank settlements when everyone knows they will be dismantled eventually is dangerous for Israel.
Your mother isn’t hostile to you if she’s trying to stop you from smoking crack. She’s trying to save you from yourself.
Terry, west bank settlements are cities and please stop with obama doing for israel our aid package comes from congress not president you are so blinded into thinking that bibi is the problem..
Go look at obamas friends growing up all left wing anti semites go look at his preacher an anti semite, obama has an agenda which is all about respect for Muslims and anger towards jews, this is his upbringing these are facts.
Its a shame that you can’t see that bibi had every right to speak to congress!
Now the whole world is asking if its a bad deal.
Bibi is the only defender of israel.
Richard, how many wrong things can you write? West Bank settlements are illegal settlements that will be dismantled like the ones in Gaza and Sinai. Obama being an anti-Semite is going to be surprising to all the Jewish advisors who helped him win like David Axelrod and the 65% of American Jews who voted for him. Those are facts. And sorry, Bibi had no right to speak to Congress because Congress had no right to invite him. You can make up crap but it doesn’t make it true.
As for the deal, when you or any other right-wing nut can offer up a better deal other than walking away and letting Iran do whatever it wants and then going to war — again — I’ll listen. Till then, a 75% good deal is better than no deal. The truth is Netanyahu doesn’t want any deal. Just like he wants no deal with the PA. Bibi has done more to weaken Israel than any PM in history. He is a disaster. Tiime to go.
Oh, please. The only one smoking crack is you. Bib is not allowing unrestricted building – where do you get that garbage? Oh, yeah – he talks like he is, but he doesn’t. Maybe you should have some idea of the facts.
The is no-one who will dismantle most of the settlements. Labor won’t either. Besides, the administration acts like Jerusalem is a settlement.
Listen you American idiot, your life is not on the line, so stop telling us what’s good for us.
PS – J Street was running Obama’s policy from the start. This was proven.
Just to educate a few on American protocol: The Congress is run by the Speaker of the House and the Majority Leader of the Senate, both of which are Republicans (the opposition party to Obama). Obama has no control over whom the Speaker invites to speak before a joint session of Congress, that is up to the Speaker.
PM Netenyahu was invited to speak to the Congress by the Speaker, mainly because of the deadline for a “deal” with Iran (March 24) and not what the left wing press puts out because of the upcoming elections in Israel on March 17. I don’t know what they teach overseas, but the President isn’t this all powerful autocrat, he has to work with Congress and Congress does have powers and purviews it can exercise independent of the President.
Also, the big deal about this deal is fear that any negotiated deal, which some claim is amending the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty of 1970 (which Iran and the US are signitories of) would not go to the Senate for ratification, as required by our Constitution. And it wouldn’t be the first time this President has tried to circumvent the Congress, as he has shown an unwillingess to work with others.
Keith Hoffman,
I appreciate that you are trying to teach some of the guys active here (some seem to be leftist americans!) what the Constitution says – I have now for several weeks tried to get through to them. But certain persons here just seem to be like democrats – they simply repeat their false arguments…
P.S. I also do not like Obama. If we talk about the 2016 elections, I would prefer to see a guy like Ted Cruz or Scott Walker in the WH – Jeb Bush is acceptable…
Obama is a staunch Israel supporter, but he is an avowed Bibi- and Likud-hater. That shouldn’t be surprising. Bibi has treated Obama like dirt and the two of them are politically oriented 180 degrees away from each other.
Herzog taking over would, if anything, improve Israel-US relations, increase the say Israel has over an Iran deal (which probably won’t happen at this point no matter what Israel says or does; Iran isn’t playing ball), and thereby make it easier for Israel to address its numerous domestic problems. And with Livni as FA minister, then as PM, I’m not terribly worried about a Labor-led government being soft on Hamas, or Hezbollah, or Abbas. And the Kahlon/Lapid part of a Labor coalition would actually spend time giving real thought to fixing the botch-job the Likudniks have been working on the Israeli economy.
I mean, does anybody seriously think that Bibi has improved Israel’s station? Gaza is a disaster, Europe is turning anti-Zionist at almost every level, Abbas is rapidly expanding his international clout, and Likud’s plan to counteract these trends is … to spit at the foot of the President of the United States? This is supposed to make things better? Because it occurs to me that all it’s done is make it easier for Bibi to drum up rage in his political base.
I’m shocked at how little I hear the “are you better off now than you were when Bibi took over” question. I can’t imagine the answer being “yes” for all that many Israelis.
President Obama really isn’t a staunch Israel supporter. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t do many things for Israel. I commented above with a link to a very solid piece of scholarship arguing that President Obama is in the process of a major rapproachement with Iran. It is clear that many policy wonks on the right, at least, are coming to believe this. It is worth taking seriously, though of course, we cannot know. Now, one might argue in that case that it doesn’t matter who gets elected on that front. I think it does for other reasons, but as you say, there are many issues that will be weighed. It is only a risk, but it is a real one.
Obama is seeking detente with Iran because of ISIS. I don’t think Obama would allow that to be at the expense of Israel though.
Absolutely on point.
About settlements being illegal who says??
Go look at history the west bank has been disputed lands since 1948, jordan was never legal owner of the land and than we won the land in 67 war the land is disputed and it will stay in israeli hands, jews have always voted democrats doesn’t mean they are smart as for all those jews in obama admin they are all self hating jews who believe in arab narrative…Rabin never spoke of a two state solution, he spoke of autonmy ….and u make like its the israelis who haven’t made effort for peace the palastianians will never agree to anything bc they want everything, and yes obama is not a jew lover, he’s a man that is dangerous and the whole world can’t stand him. As for bibi having no right to speak
To congress you deff don’t know american law as congress has the same power as president and they can invite anyone they want to speak to congress we in U.S. is not a dictatorship so obama kicked and screamed about bibi because he knew bibi would expose his lies..
Well, first of all, as someone who knows what Israel is like now and what it used to be like, it is a billion times better today, arguably due to Bibi’s economic reforms, back when he was Finance Minister.
Yes, we should all lick the feet of the American President whose own country can’t stand him. (BTW, Bibi did.)
It was proven from the logs that J Street was running Obama’s Mideast policy at the beginning. What do you expect? Maybe we should just let the American Democratic party choose the Knesset? That seems to be what you want.
I still think it will come down to 2013 stay at home voters who will go to the United (Arab) list, Yesh Atid and the Zionist Camp. The interesting stat is the # of BY voters who might consider Kulanu. The spirit of Mizrachi/Mafdal might still be out there. (Remember that the Mizrachi woman’s movement was founded by Herzog’s grandmother.)
Jeremy, you’re a smart guy – return to your roots :-).
Oh, and a note to the stronger right wing parties: If you make a big push for Yahad supporters you will create a bunch of wasted ballots when they fall below the threshold. Deri will then laugh all the way to a Herzog coalition.
Can someone explain why the votes count all the seats who haven’t ruled out Netanyahu, but not all the seats that haven’t ruled out Herzog/Livni? Isn’t it possible that the Haredi parties, Yisrael Biteinu, or Kulanu would be in that coalition also, if asked? Or maybe these parties made some sort of anti-Zionist Camp proclamation I missed?
Only Kulanu could go either way, the others you mention have endorsed Bibi explicitly
It is deja vu It now seems that Yesh Atid will be the king maker again.
Netanyahu you better start grovelling!!!.
If Netanyahu can somehow convince Lapid to join another coalition with him after what happened last year, I will be terrifically impressed.
That was only because Bennet joined him.
Does this poll say what proportion of the voters are undecided somewhere? They seem to be keeping track of them, as the last poll splits them up by right/left orientation, but I can’t find a % undecided figure anywhere.
I know that some polls ask a second question (who are you leaning towards) but, presumably, some people still won’t say or don’t say. So, I’m basically wondering:
1. Are the people who answered undecided but leaning towards party X counted in the the poll above as voting for party X?
2. Are people who haven’t said how they’re going to vote at all counted somewhere?
3. Does the last question include as undecided people undecided but leaning, or just people who really have no clue who they’re voting for?
Also, while a lot of people are taking careful note of the preferences of Kahlon’s voters, what interested me most was the fact that self-described centre/centre-left/left voters basically never vote for anyone to the right of Lapid (excluding the haredim). Moreover, the centre-right seems far more inclined to vote for Yesh Atid or Kulanu than Likud. So, while that part of the poll looks like it should be very good for Likud (59% right or centre-right) the reality is that the out of the 59% who might be inclined to vote right of Lapid (as this doesn’t seem to happen for self-described centre/centre-left/left voters), the centre is scooping up 4-5 seats (out of a bit more than 40 total seats) from self-described right-wing voters, while the whole of the right (excluding Shas and UTJ) are only scooping up 10-12 seats worth of center-right voters (out of just under 30 seats worth of centre-right voters). This puts a very different spin on persistent claims that Israelis have veered right, as the ‘centre-right’ seems quite happy to vote centre-left, while the centre-left never votes centre-right (at least in this election). It also means that the undecided camp is much worse for Netanyahu than it looks, as Likud should really only expect most of the Right (24%) + maybe 12-15% out of the 33% from the centre-right to vote to the right of Kahlon. So, that means that only 35-39% of the undecideds should realistically be expected to vote right of Kahlon (although, obviously, undecideds could move around a lot in the next 7 days).
Good analysis. Curious also that Likud voters describe themselves a little more right than BY voters.
I should point out that whilst every one is on a Buzz as to what this all means. The previous Panels/Knesset Channel Poll had team Likud as above at 64. In effect the accuracy or inaccuracy of this poll remains the same.
Avi 2 makes a good point on Yachad though, if Likud and or BY attract and pull their voters, they may fall below the threshold. For whom is that good?
“The previous Panels/Knesset Channel Poll had team Likud as above at 64.”
It´s true that there are not big differences from the last Panels/Knesset Channel poll but we look carefully right-religious is 64 with Kulanu (the same), but without Kulanu the right-religious parties go down from 56 to 55, center-left-arabs have 56 (the same) and Kulanu go up from 8 to 9 with 47% of their voters supporte endorse Herzog in the second phase (33% Bibi).
“Avi 2 makes a good point on Yachad though, if Likud and or BY attract and pull their voters, they may fall below the threshold. For whom is that good?”
It will be good for center-left (same it happened with Liberman), as if Meretz fell below the threshold would be good for right.
In 1995 I spent a part of election day at Labor headquarters. The party lost because of the absence of field work. It was a mess. This time around the voice to some may sound like Peres but the hands (ground game) will be as Barak in 99 or Begin/Sharon in 77.
This is something I’ve always been curious about – who has the better ground game? In the US, the left tends to be better at field. Curious to know who has the advantage in Israel. I would assume the Haredim, since religiosity correlates pretty strongly with turnout (again, extrapolating from the US).
That only applies to UTJ. Shas attacts non-Chareidi voters.
Elections everywhere are about who can turnout their voters. There are no on the fence swing voters. No one is deciding between Likud and Labor. People decide between their party and staying home.
It does not surprise me that Kahlon has a lot of Herzog supporters voting for them. Kahlon has stated that he would endorse
-Public transportation on Shabbat
-Haredi draft law
-Civil Marriage (lessening the power of the Rabbinate)
I thought he was more traditional but I guess not.
He is basically leftist.
Not necessarily – the forum he said it on was Haaretz. Election spin possibly, see if he can drag in some YA voters. I am reminded of the recent comments of Rabbi Yaakov Litzman of UTJ who said the labour party policies on the same subject did not bother him, as these are just bits of paper that are torn up in coalition building, as would this if labour were to be in one.
I Just read an article on Arutz Sheva where Kahlon said he wont join a coalition that includes non-zionist. I wonder if this includes Meretz? if so a ZU-Kulanu-Yesh Atid coalition would only be 47 seats.
Meretz is Zionist. The only parties that are not described as Zionists and are not members of World Zionist Organization are arab parties and Yahadut Hatorah.
If that’s really accurate, BB has a big problem. If Kulanu won’t sit with a non-Zionist party, that means you can’t have Kulanu and UTJ in the same coalition. Hard to see how BB gets to 61 without both of them.
If Meretz is Zionist, why doesn’t the “history of Meretz” section have the word “Tizoni” anywhere? If they are Zionist, they sure are hiding it.
If those 3 positions make you a leftist that makes me sad.
In Israel, it makes you an extreme Leftist, and a greater danger to the continuation of the Jewish people than Iran.
Not sure if serious lol.
Based on the numbers for undecided voters (57% center-right or right), there at least might exist a chance for BY to grab 4-5 seats (??). Also if we count the undecided centrists (25%), there might be even more possibilities – all of this is only speculation! But at least there is still hope for BY – there can still happen a miracle!
Question for those more well versed in Israeli politics than I. Will the Herzog bloc accept as part of their block the Arab list? If so, will that government, if formed, be hostage to positions of Arab MKs who might say or do things which will bring down “liberal” government? Finally, have Herzog or Livni specifically said anything indicating they would negotiate away settlement blocks or even make unilateral moves without quid pro quo?
Finally, I have no doubt that Obama administration and EU would love seeing Bibi in the rear view mirror? The question is, will Herzog/Livni actually deliver on the Obama/EU demands or will Israel eventually find itself isolated once more due to its refusal to take steps which its leaders believe will compromise the safety of Israelis?
1. The United Arab List has stated that they will not join any government. Consequently, it doesn’t really matter whether Herzog would let them in or not. Even if he wanted to, it’s pretty unlikely that Kahlon would be willing to go along with it, or even Lapid, for that matter.
2. Herzog and Livni both want to try making a deal with the Arab League, as they don’t think the Palestinians can deliver a deal, which would presumably involve giving up at least some of the settlement blocs. Lapid has stated a similar position, while Oren (#4 on Kahlon’s list) has been talking about the need to begin giving up isolated settlement blocs deep in the West Bank in order to focus on the settlement blocs Israel could expect to keep in a peace settlement.
3. No one knows whether Israel will be isolated or not, although the international community would probably deal more gently with a Herzog government or national unity government then they would with a Netanyahu-led religious/right coalition
The last question highlights one of the strange features of Israeli elections in the past decade or so: 59% of Israelis are either right-wing or center-right, yet the election is still so close.
It’s really incredible that a mostly right of center country could be this close to electing a left-wing government.
You’re oversimplifying a bit. If you look at the polling above, most of the center-right voters vote for centrist parties, rather than right-wing parties, while almost no centrists vote for the Right, so what becomes possible is a coalition between the Left (Meretz and left wing of Labour), the Center-Left (right wing of Labour and left wing of Yesh Atid) the Center (basically just Lapid) and the Center-Right (right wing of Yesh Atid and Kulanu).
Basically, the Left in Israel is weak, but the Center-Left, Center and Center-Right are, collectively, 57% of voters. In short, as Israeli politicians have been saying for years, most of the voters are in the center. Moreover, at least in this election, centrists seem far more interested in the fact that they can’t afford an apartment and corruption than in speeches about Iran.
If this election goes Left, it will not mean that the country is moving left–it will mean that many right wingers are voting economy instead of security. This is why you get rightists voting left but not vice versa.
Depends what you call right. Rightists in security can be leftists in economy. Most israeli parties and voters (including some rightists ) are more leftist in their positions about conflict with palestinians that Rabin when he was killed, etc.
I will now, ones and for all, pick up on some of your comments/positions on the Israel-arab conflict and US-Israel relations and Iran.
1) Israel-arab conflict and US-Israel relations:
First of all, I hope that there will be a strong right-religious government that will say “enough is enough”. I hope that there will be no more discussions about the 2-state-solution nonsense. To describe the idea, I qoute my own text:
“I guess the World would have to accept the “most right-wing, pro-settler government” and try to work with it – the EU got some starting experience with handling “difficult” (from its point of view) governments after the last elections in Greece.
Secondly I would suggest that with such a government it would be possible to start changing the conversation about how to solve the peace process – start thinking outside the box and abandoning the 2-state solution (at least for now, from the viewpoint of Obama, EU,..). One good compromise (to start from) is Bennett’s plan, but for that to happen BY must be big (like 17-20 seats) so that Bennett can demand the right to negotiate and some good portfolios like DM or FM.”
I would like to respond to the following comment, made by richard green:
“Security only the right.. status quo has been good for many years and will be good for many years more”
I do NOT agree. Maintaining the status quo, will only make europeans feel even more pity for the arabs, as there would all the time (or then not) be more and more settlement construction – with the World powers not understanding what is the meaning with that. They will wonder is the goal a binational state (1-state solution) or a revised 2-state solution.
theunconscioustorontonian wrote:
“The status quo is good? How can you possibly say that? Netanyahu has alienated the entire world, pissed off Israel’s strongest ally, exaggerated Iran’s nuclear capabilities and missed opportunity after opportunity to seal the deal with Abbas. He is a failure.”
My analysis of the situation is that there is no perfect solution – we must go for the one that comes with a little harm as possible and I mean harm to israelis and arabs. Taking away the life work of one person or the other will not make the future brighter. The 2-state solution (if implemented in Judea and Samaria) would destroy the life for hundreds and hundreds of thousands of israelis. However, if the arabs got a state in Sinai+Gaza, that would be just fine. Israel would have Yesha and the Yesha arabs (which are not the so-called 3-4 million) would get to move to that state or move somewhere else (like Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, …).
I would also say that annexing Gaza and Yesha and give citizenship to 3 million arabs will probably not work as that would require massive aliyah, also from the US which I would bet will not happen and I would not recommend that it would because then maybe the special US-Israel relations would be on a much unstable ground (and would not any more be that special, if it were up to the democrats to decide).
JL wrote: “There is no rift in US-Israel relations. The US is just facing a changing Middle East and is ruled by a group of Israel haters. A republican is likely in 2016 and he will be pro-Israel and put an end to this nonsense.”
That is right! There is no rift between Congress (the institution that REALLY represents the American people) and Israel. Sure, there is a rift between the (current) WH and the (current) israeli leadership. I say current in parenthesis because also were there a rift (or arguments) between Israel and the Clintons, or between Israel and some republican presidents. Taking about the future president, I think JL is right – GOP probably will win the WH. The question is just who it is. This goes for all themes in US-Israel relations and also the Israel-arab conflict, see my text below:
” you are right – it will not happen if the jordanians and saudis are not convinced/forced. BUT the convincing would come from the US – depending on who is the next president.
Is the Clintons in charge, then it will not happen. The Clintons are known to not have a good relationship with the israeli Right. The Clintons only care about themselves and try to be as secretive as possible (as you surely has heard in the american press).
But if the republicans win the White House, they could make the economic and military support to arab countries in the region dependent on the countries giving the arabs in Yesha citizenship. I do not think that Chris Christie would do that, but on the other hand it seems (right now) that he has no chance of even winning the GOP primary (even if Jeb Bush would not run).
As I said before, a Rubio or Bush presidency, even if they both more or less establishment/moderate, might be convinced by Netanyahu/Bennett/.. to go for such a solution.
IF we imagine that Ted Cruz would become president (I realize that the odds are against him), he would willingly pressure the arab states (even without israelis convincing him).
But someone, whose ideology is close to Cruz, and has actually succeeded in politics to get reforms through the system is Scott Walker, governor of Wisconsin. Yes, he is a tea party/social conservative/establishment politician, but he has managed to reform his state’s tax- and regulatory systems and reform the education system and reform collective bargaining rights and make Wisconsin a right-to-work state AND STILL HE HAS MANAGED TO WIN A (BIG) MAJORITY OF INDEPENDENTS AND EVEN SOME DEMOCRATS. He is a man of the working-class/middle-class and has proved that americans do not necessarily need a great education listed on their CVs to get to succeed. And remember his humble background. So if the election comes down to Walker vs Clinton, I would dare to bet on a blue-collar politician like Walker to (easily??) beat an elitist like Clinton. He is a conservative, who would stand by Israel’s side no matter what!
But really I think any nominee will be able to in the end beat the Clintons (assuming Hillary runs). If the democrats nominate a looser like Martin O’Malley, who wants to trash the average american in favor of illigal immigrants, or socialist like Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren or Joe Biden, whose presidency would equal Obama’s third term, THEN any republican would win the White House. So actually I think that there is quite a chance to get the US to start changing the conversation about how to solve the israel-arab conflict.”
BenjaminNYNY, you were very critical of me regarding this theme. But actually one could argue that american jews are (partly) at fault for Obama getting elected for a second term. Many american jews are liberal and keep on buying the democrats’ fake concern for Israel. I could not say it better than theunconscioustorontonian (even if I strongly desagrees with him):
“Richard, how many wrong things can you write? West Bank settlements are illegal settlements that will be dismantled like the ones in Gaza and Sinai. Obama being an anti-Semite is going to be surprising to all the Jewish advisors who helped him win like David Axelrod and the 65% of American Jews who voted for him. Those are facts. And sorry, Bibi had no right to speak to Congress because Congress had no right to invite him. You can make up crap but it doesn’t make it true.”
Responding to theunconscioustorontonian, first of all he does not realize how good he describes the liberal sentiment, represented by organizations like JStreet. Second, regarding Bibi, Congress, the WH, Bibi’s speech and constitutional power, in responding I refer to one of my earlier posts:
““The GOP and Netanyahu disrespected the US president”????
1. why is it wrong for Netanyahu to accept an invitation to speak to Congress in order to explain that the Obama administration is endangering Israel’s security and existence? The only institution in the World that at this point theoretically could stop a disastrous and dangerous deal is the US Congress – the republicans have israel’s back!
2. you think that Congress has no right to try to stop the US president when he is about to cut a deal with the number 1 enemy of the US; a deal that will risk the national security of the US. You realize that the executive branch (White House, administration), the legislative branch (Congress) and the Courts are all equal branches of government. And that national security is a matter where the Congress have a critical say; the president cannot sign treaties like this deal through executive orders – that is unconstitutional. And the president is not capable to lift the sanctions regime, written into law by Congress. So you see, even if the president broke the law and signed a deal, Congress can stop the deal from being accepted by all parties involved by not lifting the Iran sanctions!”
This is also a response to Nicole Summers, who wrote the following:
“Netanyahu must go. The GOP and Netanyahu disrespected the US president and his arrogance continues to be dangerous. Netanyahu is a liar and he thinks he controls the US too.”
Nicole Summers, if someone thinks the he/she can push around others, it is the WH. Neither GOP nor Israel will be punching bag for the WH.
2) Iran:
Jennifer wrote: “I DON’T think leaping to the assumption that the president foreign policy is incompetent is wise”.
What a nonsense! Have you listened to John McCain, Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz,.. to know that Obama does not realize/understand what he is risking with that iran deal. It will for sure give Iran the tools to be able to follow through on its threats against Israel, BUT also put the US (and Europe) in harms way as Iran will, after the sanctions are somehow lifted, have more than enough money to produce and store enriched uranium for any amount of nuclear wwarheads AND developing high-quality ICBMs, which will most likely sometimes in the future hit the US homeland.
CupOfCanada wrote: “I’d just add that the negotiations aren’t just with the US. They’re also with the UK, France, Germany, Russia and China. I’d imagine the leaders of those countries are unhappy with Netanyahu undermining their negotiations too.”
That is true that other nations are involved in the negotiations. But regardless of if the think that Netanyahu is undermining the process or not, the european leaders are fouls who cannot see further in the future than “1 second”! And believe me – I know. For example, they absorb more and more muslim “refugees” even when it is becoming more clear every day to usual and “stupid” europeans that many muslims are not “moderate” and “tolerant”. SO do not even think that the european leaders could even in theory be able to get a good (enough) deal done. AND do not count on Russia or China!
CupOfCanada wrote:
“If Israel wants security, especially with respect to Iran, it needs international support. Herzog can deliver that more easily than Netanyahu, who seems to have gone out of his way to piss off every ally Israel has.”
How could Herzog get security with regard to Iran, when in order to get international support, he will have to sell out on all of Israel’s red lines regarding Iran, right to strike its nuclear facilities, the peace process, jerusalem,… He will have to give up on Israel’s right do make sure that Abbas, Hamas and Hezbollah do not destroy Israel and put that task in the hands of anti-israeli europeans, the anti-israeli UN and leftist democrats in the US. Additionally I wonder how you think that relying on the international community with regard to Iran can help protect Israel, when the international community is selling out it own security by making an agreement with Iran that gives them the right to develop nukes that Iran will point at New York, Paris, London, ….
g M:
However, if the arabs got a state in Sinai+Gaza, that would be just fine.
Israel would have Yesha and the Yesha arabs (which are not the so-called 3-4 million) would get to move to that state or move somewhere else (like Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, …).
And what happened if the Arabs of Yesha did not want to move from Yesha to any other place (most likely)? I think that your proposal dont have connection with the reality.
And what happens if the “Settlers” don’t want to leave?
If it´s get a two-state solution, they do not want to leave and the Palestinian government accepts it (not very possible and safe) could stay as palestinian citizens.
Let’s play your game, Miguel. if there would be a 2-state solution, then the second state could be Sinai+Gaza or Jordan or … BUT not Yesha. And yes, it is possible that the arabs in Yesha would like to stay – then those not guilty to terrorism or other crimes could receive work permits or whatever but their citizenship would be in their new state, wherever it is.
Annexing a territory (Jehuda veShomron in this case) and give to the majority of its habitants (arabs) the citizenship of another country is a nonsense and is not realistic.
Miguel, then you come up with a better plan that does not include destroying the life of israelis in Yesha – destroying includes evictions, leaving them to be slaughtered in the “new” arab state,…
Unfortunately I do not think that there is a magic or perfect solution. For me the best (or least bad) solution would be that jews who are living outside major settlement blocs of Yehuda veShomron move to these. Then these settlement blocs would be annexed to Israel in a two state for two people solution with land swaps, in which Israel would maintain a clear Jewish majority, as a Jewish and democratic state (i.e. Zionist).
Any other solution would end in a state where Israel could not keep as a Jewish and democratic state (i.e. Zionist), and would be worst.
Miguel, so you think it is acceptable for people, not impacted by a decision to evict israelis from their homes, (= Tzipi Livni, …) to sit in secrecy in a closed room an decide that this group of people will have all their lifework destroyed, you think that it is OK to harm the children by literally (and violently) throwing them out of their homes (the only homes they might have ever known) and giving them lifelong traumas. And you really think that politicians are right to do this and spit in the face of this young generation and say that “who cares if you are traumatized or not – you are just pawns in my political game”.
You know, if Merkel, Obama or Holland or any world leader, who says that all these settlers in “illegal” communities have to leave their homes and must see their lifework being destroyed right in front of them, would (somehow) happen to visit these communities, I bet they would not dare to themselves say all this to the members of these communities. A visiting world leader simply could not say this in front of these settlers, as then they would see how the settlers would suffer, they would see the children crying, when their parents tell them their whole life will be destroyed in a second.
So to sum up: If the politicians, that want to destroy the settlements, the lifework of families and the only life the children have known, are brought to see the places and speak with the families, then afterwards I do not think that any person could take the decision to destroy all this and still feel good about themselves and still think that they are good persons. All this applies to Lapid, Livni, Herzog and so on, but especially leaders like Merkel, Obama, Holland and others. (These guys sit somewhere far away from the places and situations they talk about, they think they understand what their proposed actions mean and include – but they do not understand a thing. They would realize what they are suggesting if they visited the places and talked to the people on the ground.)
I said that there is not a easy solution (I also visited jewish communities in Yosh). But I think the least bad solution is that jews who are living outside major settlement blocs of Yehuda veShomron move to these (with tax benefits) so they could continue to live in Yosh, but within a israelis borders where could maintain a Jewish majority.
It’s like as with palestinian refugees. If they want to return they could go to the Palestinian state territories (Ramallah, Bethlehem, etc), not to Israel.
I dont see better and realistic solution to keep Israel as jewish and democratic state.
Many Israelis do not understand that ‘the American government’ is NOT the White House (Obama)–it is the Congress (Senate and House of Representatives)! In this term, Obama does not have a majority in Congress. The conflict is already there without us. Israel/Netanyahu is actually siding with the American majority against their president’s foreign policies. Congress decides everything in the end–they can even veto an Obama veto (with a large enough majority).
Yes, you are exactly right. The fact that there seem to be some participants in this forum that 1) do not understand it
2) take the democrats side
irritates me.
Well, they can take whatever side they like… My point was that the speech did NOT ruin our relations with the US government–only with Obama. Last I heard, Congress now has 64 of the 67 seats required to veto Obama’s signing an agreement without Congressional approval. The 64 seats are both Democrats and Republicans.