Panels conducted a poll of 760 people with an error rate of 3.6% that was taken out for Knesset Channel and was released on Feb 17 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
23 [18] Likud
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [11] Bayit Yehudi
07 [10] Shas
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
66 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a BB coalition)
54 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a BB coalition)
Stage one: Kulanu and Shas, the mizrahi social vote, has great potential for drawing support from wavering right and Center. Center left has luxury of pursuing the previously non voter as does the UAL. Canabalization on the Left not an option as they need Meretz to pass the threshold. On the right the circular firing squad can lead to an increase in stay at home voters. If Bibi gets the nod in Stage 2 his Stage three negotiations will be the most difficult ever. Should Herzog get the nod look for a center-right split in Likud brought on by Bibi’s announcing a political time out period.
I do have to say, much as I hate to, that the disillusionment caused by the Shas split should not be discounted.