Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was broadcast by Kol HaRamah Radio on Jan 27 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [20] Labor-Livni
22 [18] Likud
16 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
11 [20] Yesh Atid
09 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)
06 [10] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz
04 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [02] Ha’am Itanu
00 [02] Kadima – No longer running in Election
67 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
53 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)
Forgive me if my math is wrong here, but if Yisrael Beitenu and Ha’am Itanu fall just short of the threshold, all other things being equal this would make the bloc math 63-57, right?
I believe the name of the station in Kol BaRamah.
Does anyone know what is happening in BY right now? Will Eli Ohana’s appointment to the list be cancelled or will his name stay on the list – with all that fury and all the (apparently big) risks involved?
With MK Ayelet Shaked’s rather ill advised comments on the matter rather patronising of Sephardim. This could back fire on BY. Yishai and Deri could roll with this.
Anyway, this particular poll I would ignore, it’s more unreliable than the others. For weeks all the other polls show UTJ at 7/8 (they could be wrong of course) , however seeing as UTJ had 7 mandates in the last election and have a loyal and reliable core why would they lose a mandate now?
And if they have UTJ wrong, why not the others. My advise ignore, this particular poll is worthless.
But it is possible that Ohana’s candidacy is withdrawn? That is the 1-million-dollar question right now.
The statistical margin of error is going to be greater than 1 mandate, so I wouldn’t pull out the “OMG ITS OFF BY 1% ON UTJ” card yet.
I have news for you CupofCanada, for UTJ the margin of error is some 15%, understanding the UTJ constituency tell me that this poll is more unreliable then others