Maagar Mochot conducted a scenario poll of 513 people on Dec 30-31 2014 that was published by Maakor Rishon on Jan 2nd 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [21] Labor-Livni
23 [18] Likud
20 [19] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ, Shas & Ha’am Itanu
15 [11] Bayit Yehudi
09 [11] *United Arab List (6 Hadash, 5 others)
08 [19] Yesh Atid
07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [00] Koolanu (Kahlon)
06 [06] Meretz
0.5 [02] Kadima
0.5 [00] Strong Israel
72.5 [61] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
47.5 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)
Additional Questions:
What is causing the dramatic drop of Shas in the polls?
36% Lack of spiritual leader like Rav Ovadia Yosef (68% among Shas voters), 34% Other reasons, 18% Deri’s leadership, 12% Yishai’s departure
Question for Shas voters of 2013: Who will you vote for in this election?
62% Shas, 20% Different party, 15% Yishai Party, 3% Koolanu, 0% UTJ
* Poll without Haredi party together was also conducted but was not published. with very similar results.
what does it mean that Haredim is 20 seats ?
It means if the Messiah were to arrive and there would be unity and they would agree to merge.