Panels conducted a poll of 507 people with a 3.4% margin of error that was broadcast by a Maariv journalist on Radio Dec 18 2014. The poll was conducted Dec 17. Additional results were published on Dec 19 in Maariv & Jerusalem Post. Additionally, they conducted a scenario poll with a joint Kahlon-Lapid ticket.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
23 [21] Labor-Livni
21 [18] Likud
16 [11] Bayit Yehudi
10 [19] Yesh Atid
10 [–] Koolanu (Kahlon)
08 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Meretz
05 [04] Hadash
05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [10] Shas
04 [02] Maran (Yishai)
00 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
70 [61] Right-Religious (Possible BB coalition)
50 [59] Center-Left-Arab (Anti-BB coalition)
Scenario Poll: Joint Lapid+Kahlon ticket
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
23 [21] Labor-Livni
22 [19] Yesh Atid + Koolanu (Kahlon)
20 [18] Likud
16 [11] Bayit Yehudi
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [06] Meretz
05 [04] Hadash
05 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
04 [10] Shas
04 [02] Maran (Yishai)
00 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
Additional Questions:
Do you want Netanyahu as Prime Minister after the elections?
58% No, 34% Yes, 8% Don’t know
If Netanyahu is not the next Prime Minister, who would you like to see?
28% Herzog, 26% No one, 10% Bennett, 10% Livni, 9% Lapid, 6% Lieberman, 6% Don’t know, 5% Kahlon
Did Tzipi Livni’s TV appearance on “State of the Nation” change your opinion of voting for a joint Labor-Livni ticket?
47% No change, 42% Lowered chance I will vote for Labor-Livni, 6% Increased chance I will vote for Labor-Livni, 5% No opinion
Will you vote on March 17 2015?
72% Yes, 17% Maybe, 6% Don’t know, 5% No
Why are you not voting?
57% Elections won’t change anything, 21% No one I want to vote for, 16% Doesn’t interest me, 6% Netanyahu will be Prime Minister again anyways so it doesn’t matter
Don’t see why Kahlon is in the possible BB coalition. Not saying he’s definitely there, but I think he and Lieberman are more tossups at this point than anything else.
With those results, an anti-right coalition of 54 could be formed. With Hadash and R’am’s tacit support, that coalition could form government.