Panels conducted a poll that was published by NRG on November 3rd 2014.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
21 [19] Likud
17 [12] Bayit Yehudi
15 [15] Labor
09 [19] Yesh Atid
09 [12] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [06] Meretz
08 [11] Shas
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [–] New Kachlon Party
05 [06] Movement
05 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
00 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
70 [61] Right-Religious
47 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Note #1: A scenario poll taken showed that if Tekuma ran by itself they would receive 3 seats and not pass the new 3.25% (4 seat) threshold. Bayit Yehudi would lose 2 seats in that scenario.
Note #2: I will be updating Likud & Yisrael Beitenu’s current MK number after MK Saar’s resignation goes through.
Note#3: The poll results shown add up to 117 seats.
Additional Questions:
What grade do you give Housing Minister Uri Ariel’s performance?
34% Bad, 28% Average, 22% Good, 16% can’t determine
Is Minister Ariel’s building in Judea and Samaria?
52% Endanger Israel & world opinion, 30% Strengthens the State of Israel
Among Bayit Yehudi voters:
With which leader’s path in Bayit Yehudi do you identify with?
70% Naftali Bennett, 22% Uri Ariel
If you will vote for Bayit Yehudi in the next elections it will be because of?
76% Naftali Bennett, 13% Uri Ariel, 8% Neither/Other
It is time for new elections. It is time for the Left to enter the sewer in this world before going to H-ll in the next world. And the only reason why Yisrael Beiteinu only gets 9 seats in most polls to borrow from Ruby Rivlin on the 1, 2, and 3s of Israel/ US relations is 1. because of Yitzchak Aharaonovich, and 2. because of Yitzchak Aharonovich, and for good measure 3. because of Aharonovich’s pathetic job as Director of Internal Security.
It gets kind of interesting with biggest party at only 21 and second at 17. Now especially with Likud and BY at top.
Thank G-d after the Gaza War this summer, the world has changed forever. In Kfar Saba they now know that the Arabs would build an attack tunnel from Qalqilya in less than 6 months. So they developed some common sense in order to save their own skins. Now maybe they will turn to G-d instead.
There seems to be no good reason for the right to delay new elections. If they are worried about American interference, Obama and Kerry’s standing have absolutely plunged after the chickensh** comments and the administration is about to be severely repudiated in the midterm elections on November 4. The new Senate and House will be more anti-Iran and more pro-Israel. This means the American administration’s ability to influence the outcome is now nil (assuming they ever had any ability to tip Israeli elections in the first place). A new right wing coalition could simply run out the clock on the Obama administration. A coalition of 70+ right wing MKs would be the most effective way of telling the administration “Back off. No Nobel prizes to be won here. Move along.” An election is always a risk but we’ve been seeing this trend for a year. The average shelf life of an Israeli government is 25 months anyway, and the next government will be more stable due to the new governance law.
Plus, the PM has some flexibility which he always likes:
-A straight right coalition of Likud-BY-IB-Kahlon-Shas-UTJ= around 70 MKs
-A Neo-liberal economic coalition: Likud-BY-Kahlon-IB-Yesh Atid and possibly Livni thrown in as a sop to Europe and the US= 63-68 Mks
I certainly don’t support the 2nd coalition, but the possibility exists.
At least one can hope that the new senate will have an republican majority – expectations says that republicans most likely (according to prediction models) will have 51-52 seats. Right now the Realclearpolitics average is 52 seats with 3 going (with insignificant margins) to democrats/independents. Thus the republicans can also have 55 seats. But then again many polls are kind of close and the result could be 50-50 with Joe Biden giving democrats a voting majority in the senate – so nothing is 100% guaranteed.
But of course Obama will be in a bad position.
Saw the results from the US elections? They were really great. Still the senate seats in Alaska and Louisiana are undecided (officially). Alaska results probably will be officially be ready today sometimes (israeli time) and Louisiana will have a runoff election on the 6th of december, which republicans likely will win. That means 54-46. So yes, the lame duck period is about to start and Israel will have strong allies in power, like Ted Cruz, Rand Paul etc.
The US President is a virtual Dictator in foreign policy in his 7th and 8th years in office even in accordance with the US Constitution which Obama thinks is toilet tissue anyway. The Obamanation that Makes Desolate will order his UN ambassador “Samantha” to NOT veto a resolution sending troops to divide Yerushalayim this January when New Zealand replaces Australia (bad) and Spain replaces Luxembourg (bad) on the UNSec. Council. There will then be 9 votes for Palestine. There is absolutely nothing that Congress can do to prevent Obama from NOT exercising a Veto. This particular president is a vindictive narcissist and will take vengeance on Israel for “scuttling” John Kerry’s pieces process last year, and there is very little Congress can do to stop him. The sole thing that the Congress might do is to cancel the US’s 300 million dollar annual contribution to Mahmoud Abbas. But whooptydo, Qatar will make up the difference in ten seconds flat. So time to dust up on learning Zecharia 14 and Yoel 3- 4 because it is about to happen this year