Panels conducted a poll that was published by Maariv on Sept 24 2014.
Two polls were conducted, with and without Kachlon Party.
Results without Kachlon Party
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [19] Likud
19 [12] Bayit Yehudi
17 [15] Labor
11 [19] Yesh Atid
09 [12] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [06] Meretz
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [11] Shas
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
69 [61] Right-Religious
51 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.
Results with Kachlon Party
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [19] Likud
17 [12] Bayit Yehudi
13 [15] Labor
11 [–] Kachhlon
09 [06] Meretz
08 [19] Yesh Atid
08 [12] Yisrael Beitenu
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [11] Shas
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
75 [61] Right-Religious
45 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.
Additional Questions:
Who would you like to see lead the country in the future?
24% Prime Minister Netanyahu, 11% Economy Minister Bennett, 9% Former Likud Minister Kachlon, 7% Opposition Leader Herzog, , 5% Justice Minister Livni, 4% Foreign Minister Liberman , 4% Interior Minister Saar, 3% Finance Minister Lapid, 2% Defense Minister Yaalon.
Who is most trustworthy in your eyes?
17% Former Likud Minister Kachlon, 11% Prime Minister Netanyahu, 10% Economy Minister Bennett, 10% Opposition Leader Herzog, 8% Interior Minister Saar, 7% Defense Minister Yaalon, 6% Justice Minister Livni, 4% Foreign Minister Liberman , 3% Finance Minister Lapid, 24% don’t know.
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: As expected, with the agenda moving away from defense and on to domestic politics Kachlon does better. He get 11 seats in this poll, 6 seats in the Smith poll. He is taking from Likud, Labor, Bayit Yehudi, Yisrael Beitenu and Yesh Atid.
So this poll tells us what many Israelis know, they don’t trust Netanyahu but they do support him over any other candidate. It is another poll that reminds us how popular Gidon Saar is and brings us to question why he was not one of the ministers listed on these polls in the past, despite his position as #2 in Likud over the last 5 years.
This poll is more in line with what we have seen. Interesting that there is actually no sign in the poll that Saar is leaving.
About the extra questions: trustworthiness
bad news for Netanyahu, with Kachlon first then Netanyahu, Bennett and Herzog practically tied for second place.
Will Netanyahu invite Kahlon into a coalition or is there bad blood? Will Kahlon demand too high a price? If he ends up with 11 seats (even though he’s usually in single digits) the press will treat him like a new Lapid and all but demand a prime spot in a coalition for him. I wonder if he’d ally with Lapid and say to Netanyahu “You need to keep the extremist Bennett out and include Yesh Atid” which would be 19 seats total. Everything I’ve been seeing from Kahlon lately is him railing against the “extreme right” in the coalition. Who else could that be other than Bennett? Hopefully there can be a majority right/religious coalition without Kahlon being necessary. That will reduce his bargaining power. If he wants to join, then great but not at the expense of giving him the keys to the kingdom. He can’t be allowed to slow or reverse the liberalization of the Israeli economy which Netanyahu, Bennett and Lieberman all see as a strategic imperative.
to stop Kahlon, I suggest that elections are kept as soon as possible to stop him from (=having enough time to) setting up a party and so on.
any knowledge of when new polling is coming?
putting one up now