Issue Trends
Five new polls this week show a race that is simultaneously consolidating and fragmenting. The top of the map is stabilizing. The blocs are not.
The prime ministerial matchup remains binary. Across multiple surveys, the race has consolidated into a Netanyahu vs Bennett frame, with Channel 14 uniquely framing an internal Bennett vs Eisenkot dynamic. Everywhere else, Bennett consistently performs best in direct matchups, while Netanyahu continues to lead comfortably against Eisenkot, Lapid and Lieberman. The anti-Netanyahu Lane is narrowing. The consolidation is real.
The economic mood is soft. In the Zman Yisrael poll, 42% say their economic situation has worsened compared to 20% who say it improved. That is a net negative environment heading into a budget deadline month, particularly for a government advancing economic reforms late in its term.
On the October 7 law, there is rare cross-bloc consensus. In the i24 poll, 84% oppose removing the word “massacre” from the legislation, including 73% of coalition voters. In a polarized system, that level of cross-camp alignment stands out.
Bloc Trends
The bloc map remains competitive but structurally fragile. The Bennett bloc ranges from 56–60 seats in three polls and collapses to 42 in the two Netanyahu-leaning surveys (i24 and Channel 14). The Netanyahu bloc ranges from 49–53 in most surveys and surges to 64–65 in i24 and Channel 14.
This divergence is not typical statistical noise. It reflects turnout assumptions, Arab party configuration, and threshold modeling. Small shifts in participation or list alignment generate dramatically different outcomes.
Eyes on the Threshold
The most volatile variable remains the small parties. Several lists consistently hover at or below the 3.25% threshold. The seat math changes dramatically depending on whether one or two of these lists clear the barrier. A single party failing to pass can swing the bloc map by 4–6 seats instantly. The system is currently within margin-of-error distance of multiple wasted-seat scenarios.
What to Watch Next
The budget deadline is looming. The House Committee has decided there will be no plenum next week due to Purim, compressing an already tight legislative calendar. Failure to pass the 2026 budget by April 1 automatically triggers elections on June 30. The draft law remains the hinge issue for Shas and UTJ support. As we enter the decisive month, both the coalition draft bill and the state budget must move through the system simultaneously.
Even if political agreement is reached internally, the inability to manage the legislative clock could independently trigger an election. The countdown, not the polls, remains the dominant variable.
At the same time, opposition leadership consolidation bears watching. In Channel 12, Bennett leads the question of who should head the opposition bloc at 42%, compared to 19% for Eisenkot. If that gap widens, the consolidation dynamic accelerates.
The coalition’s survival still depends more on internal legislative math than public polling, but the electoral battlefield is increasingly defined.
| Poll # | Broadcaster / Publisher | Pollster | Date | Sample Size | Margin of Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maariv | Lazar | Feb 25–26, 2026 | 501 respondents | ±4.4% |
| 2 | Channel 12 | Midgam | Feb 26, 2026 | 507 respondents | ±4.4% |
| 3 | Zman Yisrael | Taktika | Feb 25–26, 2026 | 500 respondents | ±4.4% |
| 4 | i24NEWS | Direct Polls | Feb 18, 2026 | 535 respondents | ±4.2% |
| 5 | Channel 14 | Filber | Feb 26, 2026 | 579 respondents | Not provided |
| Party | Maariv | Channel 12 | Zman Yisrael | i24NEWS | Channel 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likud (Netanyahu) | 25 | 26 | 27 | 34 | 33 |
| Bennett 2026 | 20 | 21 | 18 | 14 | 10 |
| Joint List | 14 (or 5+5) | 10 (6+4) | 11 (6+5 or 14) | 14 | 13 |
| Yashar (Eisenkot) | 13 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| Shas (Deri) | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Democrats (Golan) | 9 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman) | 8 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Otzma Yehudit | 9 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| United Torah Judaism (UTJ) | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Yesh Atid | 7 | 7 | 7 | 2.9% | 4 |
| Religious Zionism | 2.2% | 2.6% | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| Blue & White | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0 | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| Miluimnikim | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0 | 2.4% | – |
| Bloc | Maariv | Channel 12 | Zman Yisrael | i24NEWS | Channel 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett Bloc | 60 / 57 | 58 | 56 | 42 | 42 |
| Netanyahu Bloc | 50 / 49 | 52 | 53 / 50 | 64 | 65 |
| Arab Bloc | 10 / 14 | 10 | 11 / 14 | 14 | 13 |
| Poll | Question | Results |
|---|---|---|
| Channel 12 | Who should lead the opposition bloc? | Bennett 42% Eisenkot 19% Lieberman 14% Lapid 10% Golan 7% Someone else 4% Don’t Know 4% |
| Channel 12 | Netanyahu vs Bennett | Netanyahu 40% Bennett 36% Neither 19% Don’t Know 5% |
| Channel 12 | Netanyahu vs Eisenkot | Netanyahu 41% Eisenkot 30% Neither 23% Don’t Know 6% |
| Channel 12 | Netanyahu vs Lapid | Netanyahu 42% Neither 30% Lapid 25% Don’t Know 3% |
| Channel 12 | Netanyahu vs Lieberman | Netanyahu 41% Neither 34% Lieberman 21% Don’t Know 4% |
| Zman Yisrael | Personal economic situation under current government | Worsened 42% Improved 20% No Change 37% No Opinion 2% |
| i24NEWS | Should the word “Massacre” remain in October 7 law? | Keep wording 84% Remove wording 16% |
| i24NEWS | Coalition voters | Oppose removal 73% Support removal 17% Don’t Know 10% |
| i24NEWS | Opposition voters | Oppose removal 96% Support removal 4% |
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 