Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Issue Trends

Across all five polls, Bennett emerges as the clear alternative in the prime minister matchup landscape. In every head-to-head pairing tested, whether against Netanyahu alone or in multi-candidate suitability questions, Bennett consistently places second and well ahead of other opposition figures. Against Netanyahu, he is competitive in direct matchups (often within single digits), and in broader “who is most suitable” questions he is the only opposition figure consolidating meaningful support. No other contender consistently clears the low-to-mid 30s.

At the same time, public distrust surrounding October 7 remains structurally significant. Majorities or pluralities in multiple polls say they do not believe Netanyahu’s version of events leading to October 7. Separate questions about documents submitted to the State Comptroller show similar skepticism. On responsibility, large majorities assign blame to senior security officials, but 63% in one poll also assign responsibility to Netanyahu himself.

On the draft law, a majority (52% in Channel 12) believe its primary purpose is preserving the government rather than drafting Haredim, a politically sensitive finding given the coalition arithmetic.

Among Religious Zionist voters specifically, Smotrich’s party is split evenly: 46% say it represents them; 46% say it does not. That is not consolidation, it is fragmentation.

Taken together: Bennett consolidates the alternative lane, while trust deficits and governance questions remain live issues for the prime minister.

Bloc Trends

The Bennett Bloc remains ahead in most polls. The key variable is Arab party configuration. When Arab parties are modeled as unified, the Arab Bloc reaches double digits and reshapes the math. Bloc totals show the difference between when the parties are united vs separate. When modeled separately, totals shift, tightening the race. Across four of five polls, however, the Bennett-aligned bloc clusters above the Netanyahu Bloc. Only one poll (Filber) shows a decisive Netanyahu Bloc advantage.

Eyes on the Threshold

Threshold volatility remains one of the most consequential moving parts in the bloc math. In the week of Hendel’s party primaries, the party failed to cross the electoral threshold in every poll. Equally notable: the party did not publicly release how many members registered to participate in the primaries, a data point typically used to signal momentum. The absence of both polling viability and organizational transparency raises real questions about its viability.

What to Expect Next

The deadline to pass the state budget is now 46 days away. If the budget is not approved, Israeli law mandates an automatic election for June 30. That ticking clock now overlays the polling environment. Any instability within the coalition, particularly around the draft law or budget committee meetings, could move from theoretical to procedural very quickly. The next six weeks will determine whether this remains a polling story or becomes an election calendar story.

Poll #	Broadcaster / Publisher	Pollster	Dates	Sample Size	Margin of Error
1	Maariv	Lazar / Panels	Feb 11–12, 2026	593	4%
2	Channel 12	Midgam	Feb 12, 2026	508	4.4%
3	Israel Hayom	Kantar	Feb 11, 2026	605	4%
4	Zman Israel	Tatika	Feb 11–12, 2026	500	4.4%
5	Channel 14	Filber	Feb 12, 2026	532	Not Reported

Party	Maariv	Channel 12	Yisrael Hayom	Zman Yisrael	Channel 14
Likud (Netanyahu)	25	25	26	27	35
Bennett 2026	21	20	20	19	10
Joint List	10 (5+5+2%)	12	13	15	13
Yashar (Eisenkot)	12	11	10	8	8
Democrats (Golan)	9	11	9	8	10
Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)	9	9	9	10	8
Shas (Deri)	8	9	9	10	10
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)	10	9	10	7	7
Yesh Atid (Lapid)	9	7	7	8	5
United Torah Judaism	7	7	7	8	9
Religious Zionism (Smotrich)	2.5%	2.7%	2.7%	0	5
Blue & White (Gantz)	2.5%	1.9%	2.9%	0	2.5%
Miluimnikim (Hendel)	2.3%	2.0%	1.9%	0	–
Bennett Bloc	60	58 / 59	55 / 57	53 / 56	41
Netanyahu Bloc	50	50 / 51	52 / 53	52 / 53	66
Arab Bloc	10	12 / 10	13 / 10	15 / 11	13

Poll	Question	Results
Maariv	Netanyahu vs Bennett	Netanyahu 41%, Bennett 40%, Don’t Know 19%
Maariv	Netanyahu vs Eisenkot	Netanyahu 42%, Eisenkot 38%, Don’t Know 20%
Maariv	Netanyahu vs Lieberman	Netanyahu 46%, Lieberman 30%, Don’t Know 24%
Maariv	Netanyahu vs Lapid	Netanyahu 47%, Lapid 30%, Don’t Know 23%
Maariv	Believe Netanyahu’s Version on Events Leading to Oct 7	Do Not Believe 47%, Believe 28%, Don’t Know 25%
Channel 12	Netanyahu vs Bennett	Netanyahu 38%, Bennett 35%, Neither 24%, Don’t Know 3%
Channel 12	Netanyahu vs Lieberman	Netanyahu 39%, Lieberman 22%, Neither 35%, Don’t Know 4%
Channel 12	Netanyahu vs Eisenkot	Netanyahu 40%, Eisenkot 30%, Don’t Know 30%
Channel 12	Netanyahu vs Lapid	Netanyahu 41%, Lapid 24%, Neither 33%, Don’t Know 2%
Channel 12	Believe Opposition Claim Regarding Edited Oct 7 Document	Believe Opposition 47%, Believe Netanyahu 32%, Don’t Know 21%
Channel 12	Purpose of Draft Law	Preserve Government 52%, Draft Haredim 35%, Don’t Know 13%
Channel 12	What Will Happen to Hamas?	Not Disarmed 47%, Partially Disarmed 28%, Fully Disarmed 12%, Don’t Know 13%
Yisrael Hayom	Convinced by Netanyahu’s Explanation to State Comptroller	Not Convinced 59%, Convinced 27%, Don’t Know 14%
Yisrael Hayom	Responsibility for October 7	Halevi 76%; Ronen Bar 75%; Barnea 60%; Gallant 68%; Netanyahu 63%
Yisrael Hayom	Does Religious Zionism (Smotrich) Represent Religious Zionists?	Yes 46%, No 46%, Don’t Know 8%
Zman Yisrael	Believe Netanyahu’s Version on Pre–Oct 7 Events	Do Not Believe 51%, Believe 39%, Don’t Know 10%
Channel 14	Suitability for Prime Minister	Netanyahu 57%, Bennett 19%, Eisenkot 13%, Lapid 5%, Lieberman 4%, Gantz 2%