Issue Trends
The most important development this week is not movement in seat distribution. It is the consolidation of the prime minister race.
In the Channel 12 poll, the head-to-head between Bennett and Netanyahu is a dead tie: 40%–40%, with 18% saying neither and 2% undecided. That is not statistical noise. It is the clearest crystallization yet of a two-person contest.
Netanyahu continues to lead comfortably against other alternatives: 41%–31% vs Eisenkot, 44%–23% vs Lapid, and 43%–22% vs Lieberman.
Channel 14’s suitability question reinforces the pattern. Netanyahu leads overall with 52%, but Bennett is the clear second at 20%, well ahead of Eisenkot (14%), Lapid (6%), Lieberman (6%), and Gantz (2%).
Across pollsters, the structure is consistent: Bennett consolidates the anti-Netanyahu lane while other opposition figures fragment it.
Netanyahu retains a firm personal base, but when the field narrows to one challenger, the race becomes competitive. Leadership questions behave differently from party-seat questions. In binary matchups, volatility shrinks and polarization sharpens. A 40–40 tie signals an electorate split almost exactly in half. That is far less stable than a 4–6 seat mandate gap.
Bloc Trends
Seat arithmetic remains competitive in five of the six polls. With the exception of Channel 14 (Filber), the Bennett Bloc consistently lands in the mid-to-high 50s, while the Netanyahu Bloc remains in the low 50s.
One structural nuance stands out: the Bennett Bloc performs better when Arab parties run separately rather than as a unified Joint List. I provided the bloc totals for both scenarios in the table below.
Eyes on the Threshold
One consistent pattern: Hendel fails to pass the threshold in every poll. He remains below 3.25% throughout, and his voters currently convert to zero mandates. For now, those votes remain structurally wasted.
What to Expect Next
The last time a Knesset completed its full term was 1988. We are roughly eight and a half months from the scheduled end of this term. Because early elections require approximately three months of procedural runway, we are entering a five-month window in which early elections can still realistically be called.
Beyond that, incentives shift. If the government passes the budget next month, the closer the system moves to automatic dissolution, the harder it becomes to justify triggering an early vote. Political actors will increasingly weigh whether collapse is worth it when the clock is already running. The calendar is narrowing. The strategic window is open, but not indefinitely.
| Poll # | Broadcaster / Publisher | Pollster | Date | Sample Size | Margin of Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Channel 12 | Midgam | 5 Feb 2026 | 500 | ±4.4% |
| 2 | Maariv | Lazar / Panels | 4–5 Feb 2026 | 501 | ±4.4% |
| 3 | Channel 13 | Maagar Mochot | 4 Feb 2026 | 651 | ±3.8% |
| 4 | Zman Yisrael | Tatka | 4–5 Feb 2026 | 500 | ±4.4% |
| 5 | Channel 14 | Filber | 5 Feb 2026 | 952 | Not Published |
| 6 | Yisrael Hayom | TrendZone | 5 Feb 2026 | Not Published | Not Published |
| Party / Bloc | Channel 12 | Maariv | Channel 13 | Zman Yisrael | Channel 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likud (Netanyahu) | 26 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 34 |
| Bennett 2026 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 18 | 11 |
| Joint List | 12 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
| Shas (Deri) | 9 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| Democrats (Golan) | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman) | 8 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 8 |
| Yashar (Eisenkot) | 10 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir) | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 7 |
| UTJ | 7 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 9 |
| Yesh Atid (Lapid) | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 |
| Religious Zionism (Smotrich) | 1.9% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Blue & White (Gantz) | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 4 | 4 |
| Miluimnikim (Hendel) | 1.6% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0 | — |
| Total Mandates Listed | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 |
| Bennett Bloc Total (Bennett 2026, Democrats, Yisrael Beitenu, Yashar, Yesh Atid, Blue & White) | 58 or 60 | 57 or 59 | 51 | 54 | 42 |
| Netanyahu Bloc Total (Likud, Shas, Otzma, UTJ, Religious Zionism) | 50 | 51 or 50 | 54 | 52 | 65 |
| Arab Bloc Total (Joint List) | 12 or 10 | 12 or 11 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
| Poll | Question | Results |
|---|---|---|
| Channel 12 | Who is most suitable for Prime Minister? | Bennett 40% | Netanyahu 40% | Neither 18% | Don’t Know 2% Netanyahu 41% | Eisenkot 31% | Neither 24% | Don’t Know 4% Netanyahu 44% | Lapid 23% | Neither 30% | Don’t Know 3% Netanyahu 43% | Lieberman 22% | Neither 32% | Don’t Know 3% |
| Channel 12 | Should the Prime Minister fire National Security Minister Ben Gvir? | Yes 49% | No 40% | Don’t Know 11% |
| Channel 12 | Do you believe the government will rehabilitate the North? | Don’t Believe 56% | Believe 30% | Don’t Know 14% |
| Maariv | Should the government obey a Supreme Court ruling on Ben Gvir’s dismissal? | Oppose refusal to obey Court: 38% Support refusal: 38% No opinion: 24% |
| Channel 14 | Suitability for Prime Minister | Netanyahu 52% | Bennett 20% | Eisenkot 14% | Lapid 6% | Lieberman 6% | Gantz 2% | Don’t Know 0% |
| Yisrael Hayom | Which parties do voters object to as coalition partners? | Otzma voters: Joint List 61.2%, Democrats 28.6%, Bennett 6.1% Likud voters: Joint List 55.5%, Democrats 20.9%, Yesh Atid 8.4% Bennett voters: Joint List 31.7%, Otzma 27.3%, Likud 19.3% Yisrael Beitenu voters: Joint List 25.6%, Otzma 23.3%, Likud 20.9% Yesh Atid voters: Likud 38.1%, Otzma 33.3%, Joint List 9.5% Yashar voters: Otzma 61.9%, Likud 19%, Joint List 9.5% Democrats voters: Otzma 52.1%, Likud 26.8%, Religious Zionism 7% |
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