Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 501 people and a 4.3% margin of error for Yisrael Hayom that was published on Jan 3 2019.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
28 [30] Likud
13 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz)
13 [11] Yesh Atid
09 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
07 [18] Labor
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Meretz
05 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [06] Livni Party
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
03 [07] Shas – under threshold
02 [–] Zehut (Feiglin) – under threshold
02 [–] Otzma L’Yisrael (Marzel) – under threshold
00 [–] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
00 [–-] Telem (Yaalon), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold
63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.
Note: 7 seats are counted in this poll as part of the blocs but their individual parties do not pass the current electoral threshold.
Scenario Poll #1: Israel Resilience+Yesh Atid+Labor
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
34 [29] Israel Resilience (Gantz) + Yesh Atid + Labor
32 [30] Likud
09 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
06 [10] Kulanu
05 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [05] Meretz
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [05] Bayit Yehudi
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
03 [06] Livni Party
02 [07] Shas – under threshold
01 [–] Yachad (Eli Yishai)- under threshold
01 [–] Zehut (Feiglin) – under threshold
01 [–] Otzma L’Yisrael (Marzel) – under threshold
00 [–-] Telem (Yaalon), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold
65 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
55 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.
Note: 8 seats are counted in this poll as part of the blocs but their individual parties do not pass the current electoral threshold.
Scenario Poll #2: Bayit Yehudi+Tekuma+Yachad+Otzma
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
28 [30] Likud
13 [11] Yesh Atid
11 [-–] Israel Resilience (Gantz)
09 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
09 [05] Bayit Yehudi+Tekuma+Yachad+Otzma
07 [10] Kulanu
06 [18] Labor
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Meretz
04 [06] Livni Party
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
02 [07] Shas
02 [–] Zehut (Feiglin),
00 [–-] Telem (Yaalon), Eretz Chadasha (Eldad Yaniv), Green Leaf, Ofek Chadash (as other) under 3.25% threshold
67 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
53 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition+Gantz-Y.B.
Additional Questions:
Who is most fitting to serve as Prime Minister?
35% Netanyahu, 28% Don’t know, 15% Gantz, 10% Lapid, 5% Bennett, 5% Gabbai, 2% Liberman
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Would love to see the methodology. All other polls have the Arab List at no less than 12, this has it at 9. Personally, I suspect the final results will be a yuge repudiation of Deri, Livni, Liberman and the hard-liners associated with Bayit Yehudi (Smotrich, et. al) that led to the Bennett & Shaked departure. If these downward trends continue the key question becomes: where do voters abandoning the margins go? I don’t see religious Sefardi voters going to UTJ but I can see them going to Kulanu despite it being secular, especially since they trust Kahlon to join a ruling right of center coalition. I can see Liberman voters going to Gesher, Likud and the New Right…
As I’m writing this there is news Bibi is offering Kahlon a handful of slots on Likud list. Seismic shift…
I am not sure Shas are going to disappear as you seem to wish, for many of the smaller parties I think these polls are very suspect and I think we will see lots of ups and downs without a clear trend for quite a while. Shas i believe did quite well in the recent local elections. So you then need to ask why and where will these votes disappear too if indeed they do. I can see the shine going from both Bennett and Gantz as we get closer to election day and I don’t rate the Orly levy band wagon either , one or even two of the last three are in for a big disappointment in my view
This poll is a bit dodgy. The joint list only 9?. Netanyahu seems to have gained from Bennet’s move he is now forecasted to have more then double the seats of his nearest rivals. LIvni with 4 seems to have benefitted from Gabbai’s move. It is highly doubtful that she would have got more then 2 seats if she had stayed with Gabbai.
you are being polite, it looks very doggy,, but that probably applies to most of the polls who in my view cannot read many of the smaller parties correctly