Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Feb 3 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
25 [18] Likud
24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
13 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
11 [20] Yesh Atid
08 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [10] Shas
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
68 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
52 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)
* Note: Kadima Leader Akrem Hasoon who replaced Shaul Mofaz is now running on the Kahlon list.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
General question – has running Marzal insead of Ben-Ari hurt Yachad? I always thought of Otzma in terms of Ben-Ari.
Actually, before 2009 Marzel was much more prominent, and had run for Knesset several times. In 2009 the National Union considered Ben Ari less controversial, and ran with him.
Eli Yishai has an easier time with Marzel because he doesn’t go to Har Habayis.
I personally don’t accept the accuracy of this and the previous poll for many of the parties, none the less for the sake Yishai let us accept it.
Then, as I expected Yishai has had an initial boost by his inclusion of Marzel. I have my doubts if this will last over the next 6 weeks. To be effective I feel he needs some major Nationalist Rabbi’s to come out strongly for Yachad. The problem with this scenario is that this would weaken BY, I doubt if this would appeal to them.
I take the view that BY will strengthen again over the next few weeks, I also take the view that Shas will also strengthen over the next few weeks.
So I am at a loss to see Yachad strengthening further and think its more likely they will weaken.
However what about another scenario, there is nothing like success to breed success, what is some polls start showing Yachad at 5 or more seats, could we have a run for them, with people jumping an a new cart so as to speak just for the hell of it. How else to explain YA’s success in the previous election.
When taking a serious look at the Likud and BY lists, one (center/center-right/right -voter)
realizes that the Likud list is far more moderate than before (e.g. because of Hanegbi, regional candidate, Hotovely in a bad place, Begin) and that the BY list is “fresh” (e.g. Anath Roth, Ronen Shoval, Yinon Magal, Moshe Solomon).
Because of this I would guess that when Likud will play up its moderate candidates in the campaign, BY can grab some 4 seats (+ several disillusioned benter/leftist because of Anat Roth). At the same time Likud can grab maybe 4+ seats from Kulanu, YB, YA.
Thus Likud+BY will grow significantly (and more balanced between them).
I think gM’s comments make a lot of sense and I can see it going that way as well
I agree with Judah the Marzal effect will rub off and become a huge liability. The Likud celebrated getting rid of Feiglin, The last thing that Netanyahu needs is someone like Marzal in his government.
Yishai and his people will join. Marzel made it clear that he won’t unless all of his demands are met. The Yachad alliance is only designed to get over them over the electoral threshold. They’ve already agreed to split afterwards and the election rules allow these sorts of temporary arrangements.
Deri’s declaration that Shas (probably) won’t sit in a government with Yesh Atid seems to be a response to the possibility of Yishai making it over the threshold. Now Lieberman and Deri have all but excluded themselves from a left-wing government, UTJ has been even firmer about not sitting with Lapid, and the Arab parties said that they will only recommend Herzog as PM and won’t accept a unity government between Labor and Likud. Herzog path narrows into mathematical impossibility. Talk of a unity government is nonsense if the right/religious ends up with anywhere close to 68 seats especially if one of the smaller parties like Shas or Yisrael Beitenu or Yachad can’t wreck the coalition at a moment’s notice. Plus, it’s not as if Herzog is going to have much leverage to turn a unity government into a reality. One can always make an argument that Israel faces existential danger and diplomatic isolation therefore there needs to be a unity government blah, blah, blah. There’s zero upside in Netanyahu rewarding Herzog and Livni for their constant backbiting with important cabinet positions. It’s not happening.
There was a time that it seemed like BY could have easily won 16-18 seats, but they’ve been trending down. Bennett would have been better advised putting Moshe Feiglin in one of the empty slots and not a soccer player. They were consistently at 16 seats. Now it’s closer to 14. I think it will stabilize but we’ll see. Some voters might be returning to Likud to make sure they’re the largest party while others might be voting for Marzel for ideological purposes. BY should be happy with going from 12 MKs to 15 MKs and being the third largest party given that just a few years ago the nationalist right was split between NU with 4 seats (helping the left by staying in the opposition) and Jewish Home with 3 seats (having no impact in the coalition as a micro-party).
Snow (not so) White and the seven dwarfs! The 68 seat right coalition is a formula for serial blackmail domestically and diplomatic isolation globally. Even Bibi cannot satisfy Kahlon’s social constituency, Haredi yeshivot and Bennett’s settlers while avoiding a constant barrage of confrontation and crisis.