Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was broadcast by Kol Haramah Radio on Feb 5 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
24 [18] Likud
14 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
11 [20] Yesh Atid
08 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
06 [10] Shas
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [06] Meretz
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
67 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
53 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)
* Note: Kadima Leader Akrem Hasoon who replaced Shaul Mofaz is now running on the Kahlon list.
Interesting stat: 33% of Yachad voters are Ashkenazim.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
The Aschkenazi support for Yachad It is not at all surprising. Yachad is now the first choice for Lubavitch and Kahana supporters whose majority or Aschkenazim.
This poll shows no change in support for Yachad since the same poll on the 27th of January.
Also no change for Labour/ Meretz/ Shas / UTJ/Arab List/Yesh
I will repeat what I have said before, a poll that reports UTJ at 6 seats is unreliable. And anyone who says its a marginal issue and within the bounds of error, I will say that for UTJ compared to the other polls/previous election, we are talking about a 15% difference. It does in my view not reflect the strength and consistency of that constituency.
Jeremy, is the “Interesting Stat” yours or from Maagar Mochot pollsters?
That is Prof. Katz from Maagar Mochot’s stat, not mine.
Jeremy,
what is the situation in the BY campaign? I hope the critic from rabbis over some recent statements by Bennett is not taking away much (?) grassroots support (how many of the rabbis were from Tekuma?).
And in what shape is the campaign for secular votes, keeping in mind that Dani Dayan left the list (did he also leave the party?)? One could hope that Anat Roth’s high position will help her get disillusioned centrist/centrist-right/leftist voters to choose BY. Taking some 4 seats from the “centrist”-bloc could maybe push Likud+BY+Yachad+Shas+UTJ over the 60 seat -line.
I’ve never heard of a radio station called Kol HaRamah. Has anyone? I know of Kol BaRamah.
Yes, is Kol BaRamah. The poll also says that que voters of Yachad are: 50% of voters from parties that did not pass the threshold in previous elections, namely Otzma and some Haim Amsalem, and 12% are former Shas voters:
http://www.kol-barama.co.il/live/78085/
Interestingly a previous poll here a few weeks ago, reported that 15% or 17% I cannot remember the exact figure of Shas voters switched to Yachad , so now its 12% . I couldn’t vouch on the accuracy of these figures so all I can say is Hmm.
I also recall an earlier poll saying that 63% of Shas voters would still vote Shas and one after that saying the figure was 75%.
I believe these figures were also reported here.
I stand to be corrected as these are recollections
“Interestingly a previous poll here a few weeks ago, reported that 15% or 17% I cannot remember the exact figure of Shas voters switched to Yachad , so now its 12%.”
I understand that the poll does not say that 12% of Shas voters switched to Yachad, but 12% of Yachad voters are former Shas voters, that is not the same. This can be about 5% of Shas voters two years ago?
I think that the coalition with Marzel can give Yishai votes from Otzma, but it takes away votes from Shas.
P.S. Acording to the poll also 16% of Yachad voters are from HaBait HaYehudi and 5% from the Likud.
I would be much more interested in knowing the religiosity breakdown of Yachad’s voters, and especially that of Shas. But I guess this is the only figure available?
I see Arutz Sheva credited this blog.
I don’t know if there is any breakdown of the religiosity of Shas voters. The assumption has been that a large portion of their voters are traditional.
I disagree. That no doubt was the case at the beginning, I think the converse is true now.
Rav Ovadia was the probably most sucessful Kiruv Rabbi ever, his greatest achievement. Hundreds of thousands have been brought to observance by Rav Ovadia and many more hundreds of thousands to greater observance. Not all vote Shas by any means.
But It is my contention that Shas has a loyal core of voters whose observance and size are comparable to UTJ. I suspect 1/3 of thier voters are soft and traditional and it is mostly these who have flown the coup.
My problem with this is that the Chareidi population did not double overnight. At this point, though, I am not sure. I had some fun with looking at the vote by location after the last election, which changed my mind a bit. I know there are some Dati Leumi voters for Shas, as I know one myself, although he wasn’t sure what to do this time.