Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Oct 2nd 2014.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
27 [19] Likud
18 [12] Bayit Yehudi
16 [15] Labor
10 [19] Yesh Atid
09 [12] Yisrael Beitenu
09 [06] Meretz
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [11] Shas
05 [04] Hadash
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
69 [61] Right-Religious
51 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Additional Questions:
Is Mahmoud Abbas a worthy partner for talks?
63% No, 27% Yes
Do you trust President Obama to manage the US policy in the Middle East?
74% No, 21% Yes
Is President Obama a true friend of Israel?
62% No, 25% Yes
Should Muslims be able to celebrate their holiday in mixed cities with Jewish populations on Yom Kippur?
49% Yes, 38% No – Among all voters
45% No, 41% Yes – Among Jewish voters
Who is mainly responsible for the deterioration in the diplomatic relations between the Israeli government and the US government?
38% Obama, 27% Netanyahu, 21% Don’t know, 14% Kerry
Are you pleased with Prime Minister Netnayhau’s speech at the United Nations?
58% Yes, 27% No
Did Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech succeed in convincing the global public opinion?
53% No, 28% Don’t know, 19% Yes
Is this the right time to renew negotiations with the Palestinians?
51% No, 41% Yes
Should a new Police Commissioner be appointed from the outside even at the expense of another wave of senior police officer resignations?
55% Yes, 28% Don’t know, 17% No
Do you trust the police?
41% To a certain extent, 29% To a lesser extent, 18% Not at all, 5% A great deal
Are you satisfied with the conduct of current Police Commissioner Yochanan Danino?
44% No, 34% Yes, 22% Don’t know
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
You’ve probably thought about this a million times more than I have, but do you think it’s still proper to place the haredi parties as part of the ‘right’ bloc? Foreign policy is not such an important issue for them, and they’re happy to join to left on economic issues like welfare. I would think that Bibi (and maybe even Bennett) would prefer to keep Lapid and Livni than to take UTJ and Shas, if the numbers are similar.
So maybe it would be worth it to also list the seat totals as ‘current coalition’ versus ‘current opposition’?
PS, is it fair to group Lapid and Livni with Meretz and (especially) the Arab parties? That may make the left look stronger and more untied than it really is.
In terms of the grouping of the ‘Lapid-Livni-Labor-Meretz-Arabs’ bloc, the point is to see if there is an alternative to Netanyahu.
Shas & UTJ nominated Netanyahu as their candidate for Prime Minister when they met President Peres in the last two elections, I expect they will do the same thing in the next election. Netanyahu still refers to them as his “natural coalition partners” and the Haredim have directed most of their anger at Lapid-Bennett, not Netanyahu. A majority of the voters of both parties are right-wing on national defense/diplomacy and religious/social issues. In fact it was because of MK Shitrit’s religious/social issues that the Haredi MKs voted for Rivlin in the second round of the latest Presidential elections. I don’t see this coalition repeating for a wide range of reasons, including the improbability that Livni & Bennett will want to sit together around a cabinet table ever again. The main reason that I use the right-religious bloc is to understand what the chances are that Netanyahu is re-elected or that a center-left candidate can defeat him. Livni did not nominate Netanyahu, in fact she tried to gather a coalition against him, I do not see her nominating Netanyahu for Prime Minister in the next government, assuming she has a party that passes the threshold.
-Likud+Bayit Yehudi+Israel Beitenu= 54. It’s not entirely inconceivable that these 3 could end up with 61 seats by themselves. BY’s rise seems to be permanent (as permanent as politics can be) at the expense of BY and Shas. Likud seems to be poaching from Yesh Atid and Kadima. Meretz and Labor are probably poaching from Movement.
-What is it with Hadash? They’ve increased support in several polls. I would assume if any party would plunge into oblivion it would be a joint Arab-Jewish Communist party. Could there possibly be a more anachronistic party? Is there any way to figure out what percentage of Hadash voters are Jews and what percentage are Arabs? I seriously doubt it’s 50/50. One might be able to look at where their votes are coming from geographically and make a reasonable guess. Who’s the core constituency voting for this party?
A novel analysis: as the electorate as a whole moves right a reaction among a segment of secular Jews takes hold with movement toward Meretz and even Hadash. Think of it as a kind of tea party phenomenon of the left out to preserve traditional secularist values. Also consider Arabs are a sleeping giant in Israeli politics capable of gaining 3-4 additional seats in a high turnout election.
I do agree that Arabs can always have a better showing if they have a better turnout. It is possible that if the Arab parties merge this could happen. However, it is also possible that as we saw with the Likud Beitenu alliance that they will lose from it.
One of the unknowns of the next election is to see how the Arab parties will present. I believe that if they can create a united list (or at least Balad and Raam-Taal, although they can split again in the Knesset after the elections) arab participation and the number of MK’s can increase because I think one of the reasons for the lower turnout of the arab sector in the elections is the lack of unity among the arab parties.
It is indeed one of the big unknowns. Will there be one party or maybe two? It will be interesting to see what happens with Hadash, Ra’am and Balad. Ta’al has run with all 3 parties at one time or another. Other splinter movements such as Mada, Da’am and Brit Olam could be factors as well.
MK Khenin would likely be left off and that could harm whatever gain the Arab unity could bring.
I read that Hadash does not want to run with Raam. It is possible that finally Hadash run alone to keep his identity as Jewish-Arab communist party (and acording to the polls can overcome the new electoral threshold), and Balad and Raam run on a joint list.
Raam is a religious Muslim list. Hadash has a Christian & a Jewish MK. It is possible Hadash runs alone, I know that is Khenin’s preference, since he would probably need to look for another political home. Remember that supposedly Hadash MKs Mohammad Barakeh & Hana Sweid will be stepping down and not facing re-election. A lot of unknowns here and with most of the Arab internal politics. Difficult to analyze it, it could go one of many different ways.
The problem for Likud in poaching from Yesh Atid and Kadima is that will these voters then (in the ballot box) come when having seen the Likud (“extremist”) list? That can certainly change the balance, also between right-wing parties…
Generally the average voter does not know anyone on the party list and votes for the leader. Most Israelis will look at it as a choice of Netanyahu, Bennett, Herzog, Liberman, Lapid, Deri (or Yishai), Kachlon, (possibly Livni) & Gal-On. It is really sad for me to admit that this is the truth but most Israelis do not do their due diligence about educating themselves about the various party lists.
Yes, I knew that it could well be the case; but do not people read newspapers that (often?) “scream” about the extremist list A, … Or then people do not read such stuff.
Anyway it is reckless to vote without knowing what the PARTY (=sometimes not the chairman) stands for. But politically this is better for the moment at least as this seems to mean a somewhat big increase for Right-religious bloc.
Campaign issue over “extremist list” doesn’t mean people know the lists. About 2 years into term and a majority of the MKs are still in very low in the name recognition department, was even worse 2 years ago.
Reckless to vote without knowing what party stands for? I’ll remind you the largest party in the last election was Likud Beitenu who never published an official or unofficial platform.
There have been polls that show Likud+BY+YB together can form a coalition by themselves, I just don’t tend to believe that is accurate.
I think most of the Israelis are shifting on the spectrum towards the right, private polling is showing that most are rather natural movements, although some are sharp jumps.
Hadash is always interesting to analyze. It has been a struggle for the communists to have one joint list. Hadash was formed in 1977 and won 5 seats in the 9th Knesset. In the 11 elections that followed they have always finished between 2-4 seats. Recently they have been the only Communist party and they have done better. In the 2009 election, out of the 12 parties, they were among the three parties (Likud and Yisrael Beitenu were the others) that increased in seats (from 3 to 4). In the 2013 they once again won 4 seats. Internal politics within Hadash are complicated to explain, a lot of it has to do with their historical infighting and dealing. Most private polling will show you that the majority of voters are not Jewish, however there is a higher Jewish voting percentage share compared to their 25% representation in Knesset. The Jewish MK Dov Khenin is very popular in old “Maki” circles and he did finish with 34.3% of the vote in the 2008 Tel Aviv Mayoral election (he ran on a joint Hadash-Balad list).