Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on Sept 18 2014.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
25 [19] Likud
20 [12] Bayit Yehudi
16 [15] Labor
12 [19] Yesh Atid
09 [06] Meretz
08 [12] Yisrael Beitenu
08 [11] Shas
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [06] Movement
04 [04] Hadash
03 [04] Ra’am-Ta’al
03 [03] Balad
00 [02] Kadima
69 [61] Right-Religious
51 [59] Center-Left-Arab
Note: This poll was conducted according to the old 2% threshold, instead of the new 3.25% threshold.
Knesset Jeremy Analysis: Interesting poll. Likud is at a 4-month low with 25 seats. Bayit Yehudi captures 20 seats in this poll. I believe this is the first public poll in which Bayit Yehudi has received 20 seats since it was founded in 2008. The poll was conducted yesterday and last night, so there is an impact in terms of Gidon Saar’s announcement of intent to resign before the Knesset opens Oct 27. A poll earlier this week polled Yesh Atid at 8 seats, here they poll higher (12).
Additional Questions:
Who is most fit to be Prime Minister?
24% Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, 16% Economy Minister Naftali Bennett, 10% Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman, 10% Opposition Leader Yitzhak Herzog, 8% Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, 4% Finance Minister Yair Lapid, 2% Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
The right-religious block down 2, but BY up 2. Bad results for Likud (down 4)
Likud has been polling 29-26, this 25 should a sign of worry.
Yes that is true. Wonder what tricks Netanyahu will resort to next time as a new alliance with YB is maybe not an option. Maybe he will try to get an alliance with BY…
It is my impression that polls taken months before an election is called are not particularly reflective of the electorate once a date is set and lists are clear, let alone in the actual election. (Otherwise, Peres would have one multiple times.) Has any tracking analysis ever been done on this phenomenon?
The point of polls in the middle of a term is to show you trends in public opinion in regards to has the party leader or party positions improved their standing or harmed their standing.
I guess one should not be surprised – that BY reaches 20 and Likud goes down to (even!) 25 – the gap is closer than ever. I wonder how much is due to Saar resignation.
Next week polls should indicate impact of Saar factor
Ok. Let’s wait for those polls.
Jeremy, would you know if Mafdal ever polled at or above 20 ?
I believe Mafdal’s best was 12. Only polls that matter have votes in them.
If you chart the trajectory of these polls, by the time elections come it will be Bayit Yehudi 25, Likud 20.
Who’s ready for Prime Minister Naftali Bennett?
If it ever came to that I would bet Netanyahu would pull out all the stops (probably responding to undue American pressure and threats) to prevent Bennett as PM at all costs. He’d either demand to still be PM and appoint Likudiniks to all the most important portfolios or he’d try to form a bizarre coalition of Likud-Labor-Yesh Atid-Movement-Meretz with the same sort of power-sharing arrangement like the one that existed between Shamir and Peres in 1984. Whether or not the rank and file of Likud would go ballistic and force him out at that point, who knows?
Any chance that the Likud MKs would be able to force Netanyahu to support Bennett for PM? I am sceptical – but maybe there would otherwise be a strong enough support for changing leadership because of the elction loss. Who knows!
If that is then the case, I would say that Netanyahu should resign as chairman. But he does not then he could try that trick (would maybe not do that; then there for sure would be a revolution in the party).
But what if Lapid is for some policy reason pissed off at Netanyahu and as payback supports Bennett for PM?
Then again maybe this will not happen as Lieberman and Netanyahu would save each other by (again!!!) joining forces in the election.
Who knows(?).
Lapid would certainly join any coalition to prevent the “extremist” Bennett from taking over. Remember, people on the left and many in the western media view Bennett as something akin to a neo-fascist. News stories in Israel and the west routinely call Bayit Yehudi “far-right” which invokes all sorts of nasty images. People like Lapid, Livni, and Herzog would see Bennett as prime minister in the way the EU viewed Jorg Haider in 1999- simply unacceptable in spite of the will of the people. Of course, this is their perception and not reality. Contrast Bennett with someone like Meir Kahane (an actual far-right leader who at one time controlled a paramilitary force). Night and day, but I never put it passed opposition to poison the well when it suits their purposes. Lieberman is a wild card but I tend to think Lieberman would stick close to Netanyahu.
When thinking further:
would it even work to have Netanyahu serve in a Bennett-led government? Of course in this case Netanyahu would probably have to serve as FM.
But that could be problematic – as (without knowing what Netanyahu REALLY wants with regard to the peace process) there is a clear public difference in opinion between Bennett and Netanyahu in this question. And has Netanyahu too long been calling the shots (=PM) to be able to follow somebody else’s policy?
If he would want to impose his own positions, he would be a problem for Bennett in dealing with the US and Europe. So I really do not know if it could work.
BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, having to follow Bennett’s position on certain matters (similar positions to the “real” Likud) would certainly help him stay as party chairman in an increasingly more hawish (at least on the diplomatic front) Likud.
It seems that the trend is that opinion will probably go towards a 70-50 split or even 65-55 and away from 80-40 as the focus of the electorate shifts from Gaza to other issues.
I would say that it is more 70-50. Of course it will be interesting to see when Saar’s resignation starts to impact the polls (if there is an impact).