Tag Archive: poll


Presidential Elections

Israel’s President is elected by the 120 MKs but many polling companies have polled the public’s opinion anyways.

These are the results of the latest Panels Poll:

Reuven Rivlin 35%

Dan Shechtman 30%

Dalia Dorner 9%

Binyamin Ben-Eliezer 5%

Meir Sheetrit 4%

Dalia Itzik 4%

* Nominations:

The largest group was the 49 MKs that didn’t sign for anyone, that included coalition leaders Netanyahu, Lapid, Bennett & Liberman.

Rivlin received 16 signatures: 7 Likud, 5 BY, 2 YA, 1 Shas, 1 UTJ.
Ben-Eliezer’s 13 signatures: All of them from Labor.
Sheetrit’s 11 signatures: Livni 6, 4 YA, 1 Shas.
Itzik’s 11 signatures: 4 Arabs, 2 Meretz, 2 YA, 2 YB, 1 Shas.
Dorner’s 10: 5 YA, 2 Arabs, 2 Meretz, 1 Shas.
Shechtman’s 10: 2 Meretz, 2 YA, 2 BY, Likud 1, Shas 1, Kadima 1, Arabs 1.

KnessetJeremy Take:

* The race in my eyes is who will meet Rivlin in the second round. There have never been six candidates on the ballot before, it is possible that some will drop out. It seem certain that there will be a second round. The new law states that a simple majority of votes will win, previously you needed to go through as many rounds as possible until a candidate won 61 votes.

* I’ll note that most MKs don’t take Shechtman or Dorner seriously, in order to obtain the 10 signatures necessary to make the ballot they had MKs who are supporting other candidates sign their registration forms. If they remain in the race they will receive single digits.

* I think it is too early to determine who will end up going head-to-head with Rivlin. It will be either Ben-Eliezer, Sheetrit or Itzik.

Many people think it will be Ben-Eliezer, but I don’t see anti-Rivlin YB or YA MKs voting for him, he couldn’t even get 1 signature from any other non-Labor opposition MK.

Others think it will be Itzick, but the only way she got on the ballot was with the support of 4 Arab MKs, not exactly the largest Knesset power base.

The key will be the 19 Yesh Atid MKs. In the nomination process they gave their signatures for 5 candidates (Rivlin, Shitrit, Itzick, Schectman, Dorner). No YA MK signed for Fuad. Lapid didn’t sign for anyone.

Smith conducted two polls that were published in Globes in May 30th.

The poll was conucted May 26-27 (before the Presidential Deadline and Rivlin endorsements by Bennett and Netanyahu).

The first poll was with the 12 Knesset factions as they are today.

The second poll was a scenario poll with a Kachalon Party, and Likud running separate from Yisrael Beitenu.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [31] Likud Beitenu

17 [15] Labor

15 [19] Yesh Atid

15 [12] Bayit Yehudi

10 [11] Shas

09 [06] Meretz

08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

08 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

04 [04] Hadash

00 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

67 [61] Right-Religious

53 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [20] Likud

15 [15] Labor

14 [–] Kachalon

13 [12] Bayit Yehudi

11 [19] Yesh Atid

09 [11] Yisrael Beitenu

09 [06] Meretz

08 [07] Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad

07 [11] Shas

07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [04] Hadash

00 [06] Movement

00 [02] Kadima

73 [61] Right-Religious-Kachalon

47 [59] Center-Left-Arab

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: If you consider Kachalon right wing (or at least more right over Lapid) he brings 6 additional seats over to the right-religious block. Livni is not able to pass the new threshold in either poll.

Israel Radio Poll by Smith from 14 Sep 2012

If elections were held today who would you vote for?

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [27] Likud
19 [08] Labor
15 [15] Yisrael Beitenu
11 [—] Yesh Atid
10 [11] Shas
06 [05] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [03] Jewish Home
05 [28] Kadima
04 [03] Meretz
03 [04] National Union
03 [05] Independence
11 [11] Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al and Balad
67 [65] Right
53 [55] Center-Left