Tag Archive: politics


Midgam/Statnet conducted a poll of 618 voters (501 Jewish) with a 4.1% margin of error for Channel 10 that was broadcast on May 16 2016.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [30] Likud

20 [11] Yesh Atid

14 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

13 [24] Zionist Union

12 [08] Bayit Yehudi

09 [10] Kulanu

09 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

06 [07] Shas

06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [05] Meretz

 

67 [67] Right-Religious

53 [53] Center-Left-Arab

Additional Notes/Questions:

The Important Trend: 22% of previous Zionist Union voters have moved to Yesh Atid.

Do you support Zionist Union joining the government?

50% No, 26% Yes, 24% Don’t know

Panels conducted a poll of 501 people with a 4.3% margin of error for Maariv and The Jerusalem Post that was published on May 11 2016. Below is the full list of questions and answers that include results that were not published and were released to KnessetJeremy for publication.

How proud are you to be Israeli?

84% Proud, 16% Not proud

Breakdown: 54% Extremely proud, 30% Pretty proud, 13% Not so proud, 3% Not proud at all

Interesting Demographics: 81% of national religious voters answered extremely proud compared to 50% of secular.

 What connects you the most to the State of Israel?

39% Family, 21% History, 21% Bible, 8% Political Independence, 3% Language, 3% The places, 2% Friends, 1% Weather, 2% Don’t know

Interesting Demographics: 74% of Ultra-Orthodox and 47% of National Religious answered the Bible. 58% of secular people answered their family.

To what extent is the State of Israel a place that is good to live in?

76% Good, 24% Not good

Breakdown: 48% Pretty good, 28% Extremely good, 20% Not so good, 4% Not good at all

Interesting Demographics: 54% of religious answered extremely good, as did 38% of the 60+ demographic. 29% of secular people answered not so good.

How satisfied are you from your life in Israel on a 1-10 scale, 1 being the least satisfied and 10 being the most?

Average – 7.0

Interesting Demographics:  7.8 – Religious, 7.5 – 45+Demographic, 6.6 – 44- Demographic, 6.5 Secular.

Under certain circumstances would you consider leaving the country for good?

69% No, 28% Yes, 3% Don’t know

Breakdown: 38% For sure not, 31% Probably not, 22% Possibly would, 6% For sure

Interesting Demographics:  12% of 29- demographic have for sure considered leaving for good. 60% of religious and 58% of 60+ demographic answered they would for sure not consider leaving for good.

Question for those who answered they ‘possibly would’ or ‘for sure’ considered leaving for goodWhat is the main reason you are considering leaving the country?

63% My personal economic situation, 10% Danger to democracy, 9% The process of the ultra-orthodox gaining more power in the country, 8% Fear of war, 7% Internal homeland security situation, 3% Don’t know

Do you believe that Israel’s existence is a fact on the ground or is the State under a substantial threat?

73% Fact on the ground, 21% Under a substantial threat, 6% Don’t know

What is the most urgent problem facing the State of Israel today?

27% High cost of living and the economic gaps, 18% Palestinian terror wave, 15% External security threats such as Hamas and Hezbollah, 8% Housing prices, 6% Corruption in public sector, 5% Breaking the diplomatic deadlock with the Palestinians, 4% Educating the youth, 3% Relations between secular and religious, 3% Relations between right and left, 3% International isolation, 2% Relations with the Arab population, 2% Difficulties in the health system, 1% Treatment of elderly, 1% Rising crime rates, 1% A different problem, 1% Don’t know

Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the possibility that the economic situation and the social gaps in the State of Israel over the next decade?

52% Pessimistic, 42% Optimistic, 6% Don’t know

Interesting Demographics:  71% of religious are optimistic and 69% of secular are pessimistic.

Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the security situation in the State of Israel over the next decade?

54% Pessimistic, 42% Optimistic, 4% Don’t know

Interesting Demographics:  56% of religious and 54% of traditional are optimistic. 65% of secular are pessimistic.

To what extent are you worried that a war will break out in the near future?

48% Pretty worried, 28% Not so worried, 15% Very worried, 6% Not worried at all, 3% Don’t know

Interesting Demographics:  27% of northern residents are very worried.

To what extent are you worried about an international boycott or international isolation on the State of Israel?

46% Not so worried, 24% Pretty worried, 18% Not worried at all, 8% Very worried, 4% Don’t know

How grade do you give the activity of the ministers and MKs for the public on a 1-10 scale, 1 being the least satisfied and 10 being the most?

Average – 4.4

Interesting Demographics:  5.4 – Religious, 3.9 – Secular.

How grade do you give the activity of the ministers and MKs for the public on a 1-10 scale, 1 being the least satisfied and 10 being the most?

Average – 4.7

Interesting Demographics:  6.1 – Ultra-Orthodox, 6.0 National Religious, 3.6 – Secular.

From the following list of people who would you most like to have lunch with or go out with to a pub?

12% Shimon Peres, 10% Benjamin Netanyahu, 10% Yair Lapid, 8% Naftali Bennett, 7% Ayelet Shaked, 7% Avigdor Liberman, 7% Moshe Kahlon, 5% Miri Regev, 5% Gadi Eizenkot, 4% Yaakov Litzman, 2% Gilad Erdan, 2% Moshe Yaalon, 2% Aryeh Deri, 2% Issac Herzog, 2% Zahava Gal-On, 1% Uri Ariel, 1% Achmed Tibi, 1% Yisrael Katz, 1% Gila Gamliel, 1% Avi Gabai, 1% Haim Katz, 1% Yoav Galant, 1% Ofir Akunis, 1% David Azoluai, 1% Zeev Elkin, 0% Yuval Steinitz, 0% Yariv Levin, 3% None of them, 2% Don’t know

What is the most Israeli activity in your eyes?

26% To send out a special aid delegation to those harmed around the world, 14% To barbeque, 12% To fast on Yom Kippur, 11% To help the weak, 10% To complain about the situation, 9% To cut in line, 7% To eat Humus, 4% To honk your horn on the roads, 3% To play games at the beach, 4% Don’t know

What is your favorite Israeli quality?

44% Helping each other, 18% Being chummy, 13% Opening your home to guests, 9% True friendship, 9% Speaking directly and being forthright, 2% Integrity,  5% Don’t know

What Israeli ‘quality’ bothers you the most?

23% Corruption, 20% Lack of respect for one another, 14% Socail gaps, 13% Polarization and hatred between right and left, 12% Yelling/Being very vocal, 6% Behavior on the roads, 6% Unclean public areas, 4% Treatment of the elderly, 2% Don’t know

What is your favorite Israeli food?

54% Falafel, 18% Humus, 6% Shawarma, 6% Vegetable salad, 4% Shnitzel, 2% Chips (French fries), 2% Kuskus, 1% Gefilte fish, 1% Pizza, 1% Kuba, 1% Chrema, 0% Pasta, 0% Hamburger, 0% Sushi, 4% Don’t know

Which of the following women would you like to go out for a night of entertainment with?

37% None of them, 23% Gal Gadot, 15% Bar Refaeli, 11% Ayelet Shaked, 7% Sarit Hadad, 4% Sarah Netanyahu, 2% Gila Gamliel, 1% Don’t know

Interesting Demographics:  Bar Refaeli won with the 29- demographic with 25%, Gal Gadot won with the 30-44 demographic with 30%, Ayelet Shaked won with the 60+ demographic – 19%. Shaked also won national religious – 22% and ultra-orthodox voters – 19%.
Notes on demographics: All Israeli citizens – Jews and Arabs – were questioned in the poll. In addition there were breakdowns for right-center-left, male-female, the various age groups and geographic districts. The Jewish demographic was broken down to ultra-orthodox, national-religious, traditional, secular with affinity for tradition and those who define themselves as totally secular.

Shameless Plug: For those who didn’t see I launched a new feature on the site:

The KnessetJeremy Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

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20th Knesset: KnessetJeremy Polling Average

Panels conducted a poll for the Knesset Channel that was broadcast May 9 2016

What grade do you give your lives on the happiness scale?

52% Pretty happy, 32% Not happy, 15% Very happy

What is the main issue that clouds your happiness?

44% Economy, 26% Inner-fighting, 25% Security, 5% No opinion

Have you ever considered “Yerida” (leaving Israel to live in another country)?

67% No, 31% Yes, 2% Don’t know

Do you feel that “Ein Lachem Eretz Achert” (you have no other land)?

63% Yes, 23% Sometimes, 12% No

Do you think that you would be happier if you lived someplace else?

52% No, 32% Yes, 15% Don’t know

Does Anti-Semitism increase your attachment to Israel?

67% Yes, 25% No, 8% No opinion

Do you think that your grandchildren will also live in the State of Israel?

72% Yes, 20% Don’t know, 8% No

 

Most people outside of the security establishment heard the name Yair Golan for the first time this week. As the Deputy Chief of Staff (COS) of the Israel Defense Forces he is the #2 soldier in Israel.

In late 2014 he launched an unexpected candidacy for the IDF COS position while he was running for the Deputy COS position. He lost the COS job, but he did win the Deputy position. Like many #2s before him, including his predecessor in the Deputy spot, current COS Eizenkot, he is unknown to many in the public for now as he goes through the grooming process for higher office. He is expected to be one of the leading candidates to replace Eizenkot when his term ends.

Let’s get political for a minute. Ten of the last seventeen Deputies dating back to 1982 were promoted to the position of COS. Two former COS became Prime Minister; five became Defense Ministers (DM), eight served as ministers and nine as MKs. Many of the seven deputies who did not reach COS had distinguished political careers afterwards as well.

What is clear is that, whether Golan planned it or not, he entered the political spotlight earlier than he probably desired. It really doesn’t matter where you stand on Golan’s statements. It was the current politicians who colored his statements with political colors. Golan is now going to be in the same basket of defense officials the center-left likes, and the right dislikes, such as Ashkenazi and Gantz. The difference is that he is still in uniform and the others are not. Golan might not have asked for it but there will be people who will look back a decade from now and decide that this was the start of his political career.

 

Everyone in the security establishment was expecting the battle for the 21st IDF COS to take place between the two people to hold the Deputy position under the 20th IDF COS Benny Gantz – Deputy COS Yair Naveh (2010-2013) and Deputy COS Gadi Eizenkot (2013-2014). Rafael Eitan was the last non-Deputy COS to become COS in 1978, at a time when the deputy position was temporarily vacant. It was a surprise to many when Yair Golan’s name came up as a third candidate for the position.

The previous time around Netanyahu tried to appoint non-Deputy-COS Yoav Galant, but he was forced to walk it back due to legal troubles that arose for Galant after the appointment was announced.  This time, another non-Deputy-COS, Golan, who was in the process of securing the Deputy position away from Sami Tugerman, was suddenly under consideration to leapfrog over Eizenkot.

Eizenkot was the leading candidate and Yaalon’s preference. He was the former military secretary to PMs Barak and Sharon, had great relationships with the international community, and was educated in the US Army War College. At the time Eizenkot was the third oldest Major General and had the support of many Major Generals.

Naveh, who was the older and more experienced candidate, was an intriguing alternative. The national-religious Major General of Central Command that had carried out the disengagement in 2005 of four settlements around the Jenin area. Netanyahu designated Naveh as the stopgap COS during Galant-gate before it was decided that Gantz would replace Ashkenazi. Golan worked very well under Naveh when Golan was the Judea and Samaria Division head, and the thought process was that it would be a successful COS-Deputy combo.

Just 12 people, over the course of 15 years, from 1999-2014 held the top three defense positions (DM, COS and Deputy COS) in the country. Two of them, Eisenkot and Naveh, were running for the 21st COS. Defense Minister Yaalon held consultations with the other nine as part of his selection process. Yaalon was actually the only person to hold all three positions during that period: 16th DM (2013-present), 17th COS (2002–05), Deputy COS (1999-2002).

Yaalon spoke with: Shaul Mofaz 14th DM (2002-2006), 16th COS (1998–2002), Ehud Barak 12th DM (1999-2001/2007-2013), Gabi Ashkenazi 19th COS (2007-2011), Deputy COS (2002-2004), Dan Halutz 18th COS (2005-2007), Deputy COS (2004-2005), Benny Gantz 20th COS (2011–2015), Deputy COS (2009-2010), Binyamin Ben-Eliezer 13th DM (2001-2002), Amir Peretz 15th DM (2006-2007), Dan Harel Deputy COS (2007-2009) and at the time the Defense Ministry’s Director-General, and Moshe Kaplinsky Deputy COS (2005–07).

Following Yaalon’s consultations and Netanyahu candidate interviews the joint decision was made to let Yaalon have his man Eisenkot, Golan would stay on as his #2, and Naveh would stay retired. Eisenkot has worked well with Golan as his Deputy. Yaalon has also been very pleased with the pair. Netanyahu, who once considered Golan for COS, seems to have a change of heart.

 

Reports leaking of clashing between Netanyahu and Yaalon over Golan’s statements could lead to problems for Golan in the future. Yaalon and Eisenkot are not going to listen to right-wingers who tell them to fire Golan. However, if Netanyahu and Yaalon are sitting in the same positions when it is time to appoint the next COS, it is possible that Netanyahu will not allow Yaalon to have his man. If the center-left is in power, well, they might have just found their man.

Will the relationship between the Prime Minister and Defense Minister suffer because of statements made by the IDF’s #2 soldier? Perhaps the center-left are too quick to embrace Golan? How does all this change the race between the four current candidates (Tugerman, Alon, Kochavi and Eshel) to replace Golan as Deputy next year? There are many questions ahead.

The curious case of Yair Golan has just begun.

Panels conducted a poll for the Knesset Channel that was NOT broadcast but KnessetJeremy obtained it.

Are you for or against applying the Israeli law on the territory in Judea and Samaria?

25% Yes, to the whole territory

25% No, I am overwhelmingly opposed to applying the Israeli law on the territory in Judea and Samaria

22% No opinion on that subject

20% Yes, only on the Jewish settlements in Judea and Samaria

8% Yes, only on Area C

 

Do you think that the government will apply the Israeli law on the territory in Judea and Samaria or are they empty statements?

60% Empty statements

22% Don’t know

18% Will apply the Israeli law

 

Additional Question to those who answered “no”: What is the reason you oppose?

36% Will create a binational state

30% It is not moral

22% Fear of international pressure and boycotts against Israel

12% Demographic problem