Tag Archive: politics


Knesset Channel Poll: 43% of Shas voters want Deri to go all the way on Sadan coalition threat

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June 9, 2016

Panels conducted a poll for the Knesset Channel that was broadcast on June 9 2016

Do you agree with Netanyahu’s statement that “the mountain gave birth to a mouse” (that there is nothing into the recent allegations against him?

40% Don’t agree, 36% Agree, 24% Don’t know

Note: Over 60% of Likud voters agree with Netanyahu

Is Netanyahu going through political persecution?

45% No, 40% Yes, 15% Don’t know

Do you agree with Netanyahu’s position that Sarah Netanyahu’s image is being trampled on?

52% Don’t agree, 40% Agree, 8% Don’t know

Which of the two sides do you believe? Golan Yochpaz or Rami Sadan?

44% Yochpaz, 41% Don’t know, 15% Sadan

Do you agree with Rami Sadan that people are after him because he wears a kipa (yarmulke)?

60% No, 22% Don’t know, 18% Yes

Note: 34% of national religious voters agree with Sadan

If Rami Sadan really said what was attributed to him – is he worthy of being Channel 10’s Board of Directors Chairman?

47% No, 30% Don’t know, 23% Yes

Should Shas stand by their demand Netanyahu fire Rami Sadan at the price of leaving the coalition?

General Public: 44% No, 30% Yes, 26% Don’t know

Shas voters: 43% Yes, 34% No, 23% Don’t know

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Midgam Poll: Main factor behind Netanyahu household Items? 56.5% Neatanyahu family conduct, 30.8% Desire to overthrow Netanyahu

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — 1 Comment
June 7, 2016

Midgam conducted a poll of 600 people with a 4.1% margin of error for the Israel Democracy Institute and Tel Aviv University. It is also known as the Peace Index.

What is your opinion on conducting peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority?

33.4% Very much for, 29.6% For, 16.4% Very much against, 15.3% Against, 5.3% Don’t know

Jews: 32.5% For, 27% Very much for, 17.9% Against, 16.9% Very much against, 5.6% Don’t know

Arabs: 65.3% Very much for, 14.8% For, 14% Very much against, 3.6% Don’t know, 2.2 Against

Do you believe or not believe that peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority will lead to peace between Israelis and Palestinians in the coming years?

36.9% Don’t believe at all, 30.5% Don’t believe, 20.4% Believe, 6.4% Very much believe, 5.7% Don’t know

Jews: 36.2% Don’t believe at all, 34% Don’t believe, 21.4% Believe, 5.1% Don’t know, 3.4% Very much believe

Arabs: 40.5% Don’t believe at all, 21.3% Very much believe, 15.8% Believe, 13.2% Don’t believe, 9.1% Don’t know

How much are you worried that you or someone that is important to you will be hurt by the current wave of terror attacks?

35.1% Very worried, 34.1% Worried, 20.7% Not worried, 7.9% Not at all worried, 2.1% Don’t know

What do you think the security situation of Israel is today?

34.8% Not good, 31.3% Good, 16.9% Very good, 15% Not good at all, 1.9% Don’t know

Do you think that it is correct or not correct to define Israel’s control of the territories as “occupation”?

42.5% For sure not correct, 22.5% For sure correct, 19.5% Not correct, 10.2% Correct, 5.3% Don’t know

Netanyahu decided to expand his government by bringing Yisrael Beitenu into the government and giving up on bringing in the Zionist Union led by Issac Herzog.  What was better for Israel: A government with the Zionist Union led by Issac Herzog or a government with Yisrael Beitenu led by Avigdor Liberman?

33.7% Government with Yisrael Beitenu, 28.4% Government with Zionist Union, 15.2% Equally good, 12.5% Equally bad, 10.2% Don’t know

Who do you think is better fit to be Defense Minister: Moshe Yaalon or Avigdor Liberman?

51.7% Yaalon, 21.2% Liberman, 11.6% Equally good, 8.7% Don’t know, 6.8% Equally bad

How will Israeli policy look like on the Palestinian issue as a result of Liberman joining the government as Defense Minister?

46.1% Tougher policy, 34.5% Won’t change, 12.7% Don’t know, 6.6% More open to compromise

What will the policy of the Palestinian Authority be in response to the appointment of Liberman as Defense Minister?

37.8% Tougher policy, 37.3% Won’t change, 14.5% Don’t know, 10.4% More open to compromise

What happens as a result of the Liberman appointment to the number of terrorist attacks?

42.2% Won’t change, 21.4% Will go down, 18.7% Will go up, 17.6% Don’t know

Note: 41.6% of Arabs answered will go up.

What will happen with the United States relationship as a result of the Liberman appointment?

48.2% No change, 24.1% Will get worse, 14.9% Don’t know, 12.8% Will get better

How will Liberman appointment influence the chances to renew the peace process with the Palestinians?

38.6% Won’t change chances, 35.4% Lower chances, 16.2% Increase chances, 9.8% Don’t know

Environment Minister Avi Gabai from Kulanu resigned from the government with the explanation that changing Yaalon with Liberman is a mistake that will bring with it an extreme right Israeli policy and increase divides among the nation. Do you think Gabai was right or not right in resigning?

22.4% For sure right, 21.5% Right, 20.9% For sure not right, 20.7% Not right, 14.6% Don’t know

There are those who claim that Kulanu leader, Finance Minister Kahlon, has an interest in secretly supporting Gabai’s resignation to signal Netanyahu that Kulanu sitting in the government is not a sure thing. Do you agree or not agree with this claim?

30.9% Don’t know, 22.8% Don’t agree, 17.9% Agree, 17.1% Don’t agree at all, 11.2% Agree very much

MK Orly Levy has left the Yisrael Beitenu Party. She explains that her former party did not bring up enough social demands in return for joining the government. There are those who claim she left because she was not appointed a minister. Why do you Orly Levy really resigned?

37.1% Wasn’t appointed a minister, 28.1% Yisrael Beitenu didn’t have enough social issue demands, 25% Don’t know, 9.8% Both reasons equally

How much do you trust or not trust law enforcement to check in a professional manner the conduct of the Netanyahu household?

27.1% Trust, 25.5% Don’t trust, 21.4% Don’t trust at all, 17.4% Trust very much, 8.5% Don’t know

There are those that claim that the desire to overthrow Netanyahu is the main factor behind the constant activity surrounding the Netanyahu household. Other claim the activity surrounding the Netanyahu household is a result of un fair treatment by the Netanyahu family. Which claim do you agree with more?

56.5% Neatanyahu family conduct, 30.8% Desire to overthrow Netanyahu, 12.8% Don’t know

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Weekend Perspective: The Myth of the Anti-Netanyahu Scenario Polls

Filed under: Knesset, Weekend Perspective — 2 Comments
June 3, 2016

The media loves “what if” polls a lot more than polls that measure public opinion of the current parties. It is understandable because they probably sell a lot more papers, increase the traffic on their sites, and boost television and radio ratings that way. The rumor mill will always focus on the “what if” because it is a whole lot sexier than talking about the same players in the current configuration over and over again.

Sometimes theses scenario polls can be used to promote various individuals’ political stock and increase their asking price in the pick-a-new-MK Knesset market. Other times they can be used to try to shift public opinion to the direction that the chances of Netanyahu going home have suddenly increased overnight.

The problem is that these scenario polls are almost always inaccurate, either because the number of egos in one ticket would be impossible, or because the personalities have not yet entered the political stage and therefore have not been properly vetted by the public and their peers. Another issue is that the polls might provide encouraging results to win an election in Phase 1, yet provide no path forward for the nomination of forming a government in Phase 2 or enough votes to approve a coalition government in Phase 3. You can ask Tzipi Livni, who defeated Benjamin Netanyahu in the 2009 Knesset Elections, how that Phase 1 victory worked out for her.

The latest scenario polls are measuring the performance of a list including any combination of former Netanyhau #2 Gidon Saar, former Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon, former IDF COS Gabi Ashkenazi and/or Benny Gantz, Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai, Kulanu leader Moshe Kahlon, renegade Yisrael Beitenu MK Orly Levy, and – the latest in private polling – former Environment Minister Avi Gabai. Most variations of the list come out even or ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud.

The latest political developments have altered public opinion, and it will take some time before we can assess what the long term implications are. Snap polls are useful, but they are not always indicative of the future.

 

Over the last seven years the polling companies have conducted hundreds of scenario polls, public and private, which indicated public opinion could be manipulated in a particular way to finally defeat Prime Minister Netanyahu if a particular formula was used.

The most common scenario poll in December 2014, a month before the deadline of submitting the lists to the Central Election Committee for the March 2015 elections, was a Lapid-Kahlon joint ticket. TRI polled Lapid-Kahlon at 21 to Likud’s 20, Panels polled Lapid-Kahlon at 22 to Likud’s 20, and Dialog had Lapid-Kahlon at 24 to Likud’s 21. The grapevine, at the time, said talks of that joint list ended when Kahlon decided he wasn’t interested in being Lapid’s #2 and went off to negotiate a joint ticket with Likud, which Kahlon would ultimately also reject to go off on his own.

Other popular December 2014 scenario polls included previous combinations of what would become the Zionist Union. A Panels poll predicted a Labor-Livni-Mofaz-Trachtenberg ticket would win 35 seats compared to Likud’s 21. A Dialog poll of a Labor-Livni-Mofaz joint ticket would win 22 seats to Likud’s 20. Herzog decided to go with Livni and Trachtenberg but passed on Mofaz. The Zionist Union went into the election with 21 seats and received 24 seats, an increase of just three.

Leading up to the 2013 election there was a wide range of scenario polls. Among the most popular was an August 2011 Smith Poll in which a new Social Economic Party led by protest leaders Itzick Shmueli and Stav Shapir was predicted to come out of nowhere to win 20 seats to Likud’s 22. Labor’s leader at the time, Shelly Yacimovich, was able to persuade Shmueli to join Labor. Shapir weighed an offer from Lapid before also going with Yacimovich. An October 2012 Dialog poll gave 25 seats to a new “Super Kadima” led by former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Livni and Lapid to Likud’s 24. There was also a January 2012 Dahaf Poll with Lapid leading Kadima to 29 seats compared to the Likud’s 27. Various meetings with a combination of Olmert, Livni, Lapid, Yacimovich, Mofaz and Zahava Gal-On led nowhere. Supposedly Livni rejected an offer from Olmert to be his #2 and started her own party. Olmert responded with endorsing Kadima. Kadima split into pieces and dropped from being the largest party in Knesset with 28 seats to 2.

Scenarios polling on new parties have shown mixed results. For most of 2010-2012 Lapid enjoyed polling numbers in the early 20s and high teens, and Yesh Atid eventually finished with 19 seats in the 2013 election. For most of 2012 to 2014 a new Kahlon party was polling from 13-19 seats.  Kulanu would win ten seats in 2015. A new Deri party aligned with the left was predicted to win double digits but never came to fruition.

I do believe that a joint list of Saar, Yaalon, Ashkenazi , Gantz, Huldai, Kahlon, Levy and Gabai would win the next election. I just don’t see that many egos fitting into one list. I’m also not sure the number of portfolios that would need to be distributed internally to create such a list would leave enough room to build a coalition government with additional partners. The only thing in common with the group is that most of them would prefer to see someone other than Netanyahu, preferably themselves, as Prime Minister. The above group has a wide spectrum of opinions on the issues of the day.

If Olmert, Livni, Mofaz, Yacimovich and Lapid, who had more in common with each other than the current group of scenario candidates, couldn’t join together why should we believe that this current group that is more divided in their opinions will be able to?

 

Former MK Haim Ramon, the architect of Kadima, tried for years to create a centrist super-party and was smart enough to stay out of the failed Center Party of 1999. Itzik Mordechai, who was Netanyahu’s first #2 in the Likud, created a party with former IDF COS Amnon  Shahak; Dan Meridor, another disgruntled liberal Likud Minister who viewed himself as Prime Minister material; and former Tel Aviv Mayor Roni Milo.

Does a scenario of a former Likud #2, former COS, an additional former Likud leading Minister, and a big-city-mayor sound familiar? The initial polls looked promising and it looked like Mordechai might be Israel’s next Prime Minister. On Election Day they won just six seats.

Ramon believed the key to creating a real super-party is a sitting Prime Minister. When Prime Minister Sharon formed Kadima in 2005 he had support from many Likud ministers, top Labor figures, an MK from Yisrael Beitenu, a former Yisrael B’Aliyah MK, a former Shas MK, and unofficial help from a renegade Shinui MK.

Kadima lasted longer than the previous attempts at creating a new list because it had all shades of the spectrum and politicians at all levels of the ladder with a Prime Minister in office. The opposition is a difficult place to be for a party that is based on personality and minister appointments over ideology and parliamentary work. Kadima fell apart when Livni, who had lost the previous primary, decided to cause serious issues for Mofaz, the person who defeated her, that eventually led to a split in the party. After the Livni split other Kadima MKs started to seek refuge elsewhere and the party collapsed as many MKs returned to their previous parties.

It is much easier to get a lot of egos into a room when you are the Prime Minister and everyone in the room is willing to help you remain there in exchange for a piece of the pie. It is easier to rationalize not running for #1 when you are working with the current #1. It is a much more difficult task to ask a Prime Minister candidate to endorse a different challenger in return for the same job they used to have when they were working with the incumbent #1.

 

So don’t get too excited the next time a scenario poll comes out. Chances are the people who are being grouped with each other will not agree to run on the same list, and the new personalities on the joint list will lose some appeal after they are properly vetted by their other opponents and the press.

The real key towards determining the next Prime Minister is the proven Knesset Jeremy formula of Phase 1, Phase 2, and Phase 3.

KnessetJeremy Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Likud 26.7, Yesh Atid 19.9, Zionist Union 13.1, Joint List 12.9, Bayit Yehudi 11.3

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Jerusalem Post/Smith Poll: Likud 27, Yesh Atid 19, Zionist Union 15, Joint List 13, Bayit Yehudi 11, Yisrael Beitenu/UTJ 8

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Smith conducted a poll of 500 people with a margin of error of 4.5% for the Jerusalem Post that was published on June 2 2016.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [30] Likud

19 [11] Yesh Atid

15 [24] Zionist Union

13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

11 [08] Bayit Yehudi

08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [10] Kulanu

06 [07] Shas

06 [05] Meretz

67 [67] Right-Religious

53 [53] Center-Left-Arab

Scenario Poll: New Party of Yaalon+Saar+Ashkenazi

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

22 [10] New Party (Yaalon, Saar, Ashkenazi)

22 [30] Likud

13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

12 [11] Yesh Atid

10 [24] Zionist Union

10 [08] Bayit Yehudi

08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

06 [07] Shas

05 [10] Kulanu

05 [05] Meretz

80 [67] Right-Religious

40 [53] Center-Left-Arab

Additional Question

Are you satisfied with Netanyahu’s performance?

64% No, 36% Yes

(34% Completely unsatisfied, 30% Somewhat unsatisfied, 30% Somewhat satisfied, 6% Very satisfied)

Note 1:  These Smith poll numbers are all within one seat of the previous Smith poll numbers from last week and the 67-53 remains the same.

Note 2: Smith’s scenario poll of last week had better results for a Yaalon+Saar+Kahlon party than the Yaalon+Saar+Ashkenazi party of this week. The addition of Ashkenazi to a new center-right party decreases the center-left-Arab bloc by an additional two seats compared to Smith’s previous scenario poll.

Note 3: 88% of Kulanu voters were unsatisfied.

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Knesset Channel Poll: 56% Don’t Trust Liberman as Defense Minister; 58% Not Pleased w/New Govt; Paris Conf Q’s

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June 2, 2016

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on Jun 2 2016

Are you pleased or not pleased with the government in its new form?

58% No, 31% Yes, 11% Don’t know

Do you think the new government will last until the end of the term?

45% No, 44% Yes, 11% Don’t know

Do you trust Avigdor Liberman as Defense Minister?

56% No, 35% Yes, 9% Don’t know

Do you agree with Liberman’s statement that the unity of the nation is more important than the unity of the land?

58% Yes, 31% No, 11% Don’t know

How did Bennett’s battle over the Security Cabinet change your opinion of him?

General Public: 54% No change in opinion, 21% Now hold in higher regard, 13% Now hold in lower regard

Bayit Yehudi Voters: 58% Now hold in higher regard, 29% No change in opinion, 4% Now hold in lower regard

Do you agree with the government decision to boycott the Paris Conference?

38% Yes, 33% No, 29% Don’t know

Should Israel ignore the decisions that come out of the Paris Conference?

40% Yes, 32% No, 28% Don’t know

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