Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Smith conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.5% margin of error that was published by Jerusalem Post on August 10 2017. It was conducted on Aug 7-8.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [30] Likud
20 [24] Zionist Union
19 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [05] Meretz
05 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Yaalon, Yachad, Zehut (as other)

64 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
56 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Note #1: Yaalon and Yachad (Eli Yishai) both recieved 3 seats each but under the 3.25% electoral threshold. 13% said they could still change their mind.

If an indictment is filed against Benjamin Netanyahu, is it acceptable for you that the prime minister take a leave of absence (meaning that the prime minister will be replaced for a temporary period of time)?

67% Yes, 32% No, 1% Don’t know

Note #2: 56%-53% of Likud, UTJ, Shas parties answered yes compared to about 80% of Yesh Atid, Zionist Union and Meretz voters who answered yes. 73% of Kluanu voters and 70% of Bayit Yehudi voters answered yes.

Note #3: Overall about 50% of right voters answered yes compared to 80% of center and left voters who answered yes.

Note #4: 54% of 18-29 demographic answered yes compared to 76% of 50+ demographic that answered yes.

Which of the following people is best suited to serve as prime minister?

Scenario with Saar leading Likud

None or No opinion 31%, Gideon Sa’ar 16%, Yair Lapid 16%, Naftali Bennett 14%, Avi Gabay 14%, Avigdor Lieberman 9%

Scenario with Erdan leading Likud

No one or No opinion 34%, Naftali Bennett 16%, Yair Lapid 16%, Avi Gabay 16%, Avigdor Lieberman 10%, Gilad Erdan 8%

Note #5: Among those who mentioned Gideon Sa’ar in the first scenario: 35% did not choose any candidate in the second scenario, 27% Gilad Erdan, 16% Naftali Bennett, 10% Avi Gabbai, Lieberman and Lapid both had single digits (12% together).

Note #6: In first scenario Bennett received first place among Bayit Yehudi (52%) and Likud (28%) voters. Lapid received first place among Yesh Atid voters (65%), Gabbay received first place among Zionist Union voters (43%), Liberman received first place among Yisrael Beitenu voters (44%) and Saar did not place first in any party.

Note #7: In second scenario Bennett received first place among Bayit Yehudi (56%) and Likud (27%) voters. Lapid received first place among Yesh Atid voters (69%), Gabbay received first place among Zionist Union voters (48%), Liberman received first place among Yisrael Beitenu voters (44%) and Erdan did not place first in any party.

Smith conducted a poll of 450 people that meet the standard of a representative sample of those who define their political worldview as very right, right and center-right within the Jewish sector. The poll was conducted on August 6, 2017, published by Israel National News on August 9, and has a margin of error of 4.6%.

How do you define yourself politically?

Right 53%, Very Right 22%, Center Right 25%

Who did you vote for in 2015?

Likud 46%. Bayit Yehudi 16%, Shas, UTJ or Yachad 14%, Didn’t vote 9%, Kulanu 8%, Zionist Union or Yesh Atid 8%, Yisrael Beitenu 7%, Meretz, Joint List and Other parties 1%

Which of the following personalities do you consider the most idealist?

Naftali Bennett 39%, Other or No opinion 14%, Gideon Sa’ar 12%, Avigdor Lieberman 11%, Gilad Erdan 8%, Israel Katz 8%, Moshe (Boogie) Ya’alon 8%

Note #1: Bennett leads all other candidates in the following demographics: Male (42%), Female (36%), 18-34 (46%), 35-54 (43%), 55+ (31%), Haredi (27%), National Religious (58%), Traditional (35%), Secular (33%), Very right (44%), Right (41%), Center-Right (31%), Likud voters (36%), Zionist Union + Yesh Atid voters (27%), Kulanu (31%), Bayit Yehudi (73%) and Haredi parties (27%).

Note #2: Liberman leads among Yisrael Beitenu voters with 43%.

Who of the following personalities is most loyal to the Land of Israel?

Naftali Bennett 48%, Other or no opinion 12%, Avigdor Lieberman 11%, Gideon Sa’ar 9%, Gilad Erdan 8%, Moshe (Boogie) Ya’alon 7%, Israel Katz 5%

Note #3: Bennett leads all other candidates in the following demographics: Male (54%), Female (41%), 18-34 (61%), 35-54 (50%), 55+ (35%), Haredi (51%), National Religious (58%), Traditional (47%), Secular (39%), Very right (49%), Right (50%), Center-Right (42%), Likud (46%), Zionist Union + Yesh Atid (36%), Kulanu (41%), Bayit Yehudi (75%) and Haredi parties (45%).

Note #4: Liberman leads among Yisrael Beitenu voters with 39%.

Which of the following figures best reflects the values of the right?

Naftali Bennett 45%, Avigdor Lieberman 15%, Other or no opinion 10%, Gideon Sa’ar 9%, Gilad Erdan 9%, Israel Katz 8%, Moshe (Boogie) Ya’alon 4%

Note #5: Bennett leads all other candidates in the following demographics: 50% Male, 41% Female. 58% 18-34, 42% 35-54. 40% 55+. 47% Haredi. 63% National Religious. 41% Traditional. 36% Secular. 48% Very Right. 44% Right. 46% Center-Right. 40% Likud. 42% Zionist Union + Yesh Atid. 45% Kulanu. 66% Bayit Yehudi and 44% Haredi Parties.

Note #6: Liberman leads among Yisrael Beitenu voters with 48%.

Who of the following personalities will stand the strongest against Arab terrorism?

Naftali Bennett 33%, Avigdor Lieberman 27%, Other or No opinion 15%, Gilad Erdan 9%, Moshe (Boogie) Ya’alon 7%, Gideon Sa’ar 5%, Israel Katz 4%

Note #7: Bennett leads all other candidates in the following demographics: 39% Male, 36% 18-34, 39% 35-54, 39% Haredi, 53% National Religious, 44% Very Right, 33% Right, 30% Likud, 31% Kulanu, 58% Bayit Yehudi and 36% Haredi Parties.

Note #8: Liberman leads all other candidates in the following demographics: 34% Female, 28% 55+, 32% Traditional, 37% Secular, 30% Center-Right, 36% Zionist Union + Yesh Atid and 65% Yisrael Beitenu voters.

Who of the following personalities will best protect a united Jerusalem?

Naftali Bennett 60%, Avigdor Lieberman 11%, Other or no opinion 10%, Gilad Erdan 6%, Gideon Sa’ar 5%, Israel Katz 5%, Moshe (Boogie) Ya’alon 3%

Note #9: Bennett leads all other candidates in the following demographics: 65% Male, 54% Female, 67% 18-34, 60% 35-54, 55% 55+, 55% Haredi, 67% National Religious, 55% Traditional, 61% Secular, 62% Very Right, 58% Right, 63% Center-Right, 60% Likud, 61% Zionist Union + Yesh Atid, 55% Kulanu, 76% Bayit Yehudi and 53% Haredi Parties

Note #10: Liberman leads among Yisrael Beitenu voters with 43%.

On the day after Netanyahu who should be the leader of the right?

Naftali Bennett 26%, Gideon Sa’ar 20%, Other or no opinion 16%, Gilad Erdan 13%, Israel Katz 12%, Avigdor Lieberman 8%, Moshe (Boogie) Ya’alon 5%

Note #11: Bennett leads all other candidates in the following demographics: 22% Male, 30% Female, 33% 18-34, 26% 35-54, 47% National Religious, 24% Traditional, 34% Very Right, 28% Right, 21% Likud and 58% Bayit Yehudi.

Note #12: Saar leads all other candidates in the following demographics:  25% 55+, 35% Haredi, 31% Center-Right, 39% Zionist Union + Yesh Atid and 29% Haredi Parties.

Note #13: Katz leads among (20%) Secular and (31%) Kulanu voters.

Note #14: Liberman leads among Yisrael Beitenu voters with 30%.

Of the following three people, on the day after Netanyahu, who should be the leader of the right?

Naftali Bennett 37%, Gideon Sa’ar 36%, Other or No opinion 14%, Avigdor Lieberman 13%

Note #15: Bennett leads all other candidates in the following demographics: 40% Female, 45% 18-34, 38% 35-54, 57% National Religious, 47% Very Right, 40% Right and 66% Bayit Yehudi.

Note #16: Saar leads all other candidates in the following demographics: 40% Male, 44% 55+, 51% Haredi, 36% Secular, 56% Center-Right, 38% Likud, 45% Zionist Union + Yesh Atid, 45% Kulanu and 44% Haredi Parties.

Note #17: Bennett and Saar tied with traditional voters with 35%.

Note #18: Liberman leads among Yisrael Beitenu voters with 61%.

Note #19: From previous question, 93% of Saar voters stayed with him, 90% of Bennett voters stayed and 82% of Liberman voters stayed. 46% of Katz voters and 41% of Yaalon voters went with Saar and 42% of Erdan voters went with Bennett.

On the day after Netanyahu, which of the following figures should be the right-wing candidate for prime minister?

Naftali Bennett 26%, Gideon Sa’ar 24%, Other or No opinion 11%, Israel Katz 11%, Gilad Erdan 10%, Avigdor Lieberman 9%, Moshe (Boogie) Ya’alon 9%

Note #20: Bennett leads all other candidates in the following demographics: 27% Female, 30% 18-34. 28% 35-54, 43% National Religious, 23% Traditional, 38% Very Right, 27% Right and 56% Bayit Yehudi.

Note #21: Saar leads all other candidates in the following demographics: 29% 55+, 35% Haredi, 21% Secular, 32% Center-Right, 21% Likud, 39% Zionist Union + Yesh Atid and 38% Haredi Parties.

Note #21: Bennett and Saar tied with male voters with 24%.

Note #22: Katz leads among Kulanu voters with 28%.

Note #23: Liberman leads among Yisrael Beitenu voters with 43%.

Of the following three people, on the day after Netanyahu, who should be the right-wing candidate for prime minister?

Naftali Bennett 36%, Gideon Sa’ar 35%, Avigdor Lieberman 15%, Other, No opinion 14%

Note #24: Bennett leads all other candidates in the following demographics: 37% Female, 40% 18-34, 39% 35-54, 52% National Religious, 35% Traditional, 46% Very Right, 39% Right and 63% Bayit Yehudi.

Note #25: Saar leads all other candidates in the following demographics: 39% Male, 43% 55+, 47% Haredi, 37% Secular, 55% Center-Right, 35% Likud, 55% Zionist Union + Yesh Atid, 45% Kulanu and 47% Haredi Parties.

Note #26: Liberman leads among Yisrael Beitenu voters with 48%.

Note #27: From previous question 94% remained with Saar, 92% with Bennett and 87% with Liberman. 44% of Erdan voters went to Bennett, 47% of Katz voters went to Saar and there was a 30% tie of Yaalon voters between Bennett and Saar.

Panel HaMidgam Project conducted a poll of 751 people with a 3.6% margin of error conducted and broadcast by Channel 10 on August 6 2017.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [30] Likud
22 [24] Zionist Union
18 [11] Yesh Atid
11 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [07] Shas
05 [05] Meretz
00 [–-] Yaalon, Yachad, Zehut (as other)

64 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
56 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Panel HaMidgam Project conducted a scenario poll of 751 people with a 3.6% margin of error tconducted and broadcast by Channel 10 on August 6 2017. The scenario poll has the Likud led by Saar, Erdan or Katz.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [30] Likud led by Saar, Erdan or Katz
20 [24] Zionist Union
16 [11] Yesh Atid
11 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [07] Shas
05 [05] Meretz
00 [–-] Yaalon, Yachad, Zehut (as other)

68 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
52 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to be the right-wing candidate for Prime Minister if Netanyahu does not run?

General Public: 23% None, 23% Saar, 20% Don’t know, 11% Bennett, 9% Liberman, 6% Erdan, 5% Shaked, 4% Katz

Likud & Bayit Yehudi Voters: 19% Bennett, 18% Saar, 16% Don’t know, 14% Liberman, 13% None, 9% Erdan, 6% Shaked, 5% Katz

Do you believe the Prime Minister’s position?

51% No, 27% Yes, 22% Don’t know

If Netanyahu is indicted should he resign?

66% Yes, 21% No, 13% Don’t know

The KnessetJeremyPollingAverage has been updated at this link: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

Maagar Mochot conducted a poll that was published by Makor Rishon on August 4 2017.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud
20 [11] Yesh Atid
16 [24] Zionist Union
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [08] Bayit Yehudi
09 [10] Kulanu
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [05] Meretz
04 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Yaalon, Yachad, Zehut (as other)

66 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
54 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Scenario Poll: Likud + Bayit Yehudi on joint list & Yesh Atid + Zionist Union on joint list.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

44 [38] Likud + Bayit Yehudi
42 [35] Yesh Atid + Zionist Union
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
07 [10] Kulanu
05 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
04 [07] Shas
03 [06] Yisrael Beitenu (under threshold)
03 [05] Meretz (under threshold)
00 [–-] Yaalon, Yachad, Zehut (as other)

63 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
57 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Are you for or against the plan to annex to Israel settlement blocs in return for Israeli Arab blocs being transferred to the Palestinian Authority?

36% For, 34% Against, 30% Don’t know

Jews: 37% For, 32% Don’t know, 31% Against
Arabs: 60% Against, 24% For, 16% Don’t know

Note: Majority of Likud voters answered that they are for. 40% of Yisrael Beitenu voters answered they are against Liberman’s flagship program.

Panel HaMidgam Project conducted a poll of 702 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 10 on July 27 2017.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [30] Likud
20 [24] Zionist Union
17 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [08] Bayit Yehudi
10 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [07] Shas
05 [05] Meretz
00 [–-] Yaalon, Yachad, Zehut (as other)

68 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
52 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Who is most fit to be Prime Minister?

32% Netanyahu, 27% Don’t know, 14% Lapid, 13% Gabbay, 7% Bennett, 7% Liberman

Who is most fit to be Defense Minister?

25% Dont’ know, 20% Ashkenazi, 15% Yaalon, 12% Bennett, 12% Liberman, 10% Galant, 9% Barak