Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Three scenario polls were conducted by Panels that were published by Maariv on Jan 22 2016.

Scenario Poll #1: If Ashkenazi led Zionist Union

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

28 [30] Likud

17 [24] Zionist Union led by Ashkenazi

17 [11] Yesh Atid

13 [08] Bayit Yehudi

12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

07 [10] Kulanu

07 [07] Shas

07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [05] Meretz

69 [67] Right-Religious

51 [53] Center-Left-Arab

Scenario Poll #2: If Ashkenazi is #2 in Yesh Atid

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [30] Likud

19 [11] Yesh Atid led by Lapid & Ashkenazi

18 [24] Zionist Union led by Herzog & Livni

13 [08] Bayit Yehudi

12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

07 [07] Shas

07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [10] Kulanu

05 [05] Meretz

66 [67] Right-Religious

54 [53] Center-Left-Arab

Scenario Poll #3: Merger of Kulanu, Ashkenazi and Saar into one party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [30] Likud

18 [24] Zionist Union

15 [11] Yesh Atid

13 [08] Bayit Yehudi

12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

11 [10] New Kulanu-Ashkenazi-Saar Party

07 [07] Shas

07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

04 [05] Meretz

A poll conducted by statnet of 654 people with a margin of error of 4.4% on Jan 21^st 2016 was broadcast by Channel 10. Additional scenario polls were taken as well.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [30] Likud

16 [11] Yesh Atid

15 [24] Zionist Union

14 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

13 [08] Bayit Yehudi

10 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [10] Kulanu

07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [07] Shas

04 [05] Meretz

71 [67] Right-Religious

49 [53] Center-Left-Arab

Scenario Poll #1: If Ashkenazi led Zionist Union

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [30] Likud

18 [24] Zionist Union led by Ashkenazi

15 [11] Yesh Atid

13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

13 [08] Bayit Yehudi

09 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [10] Kulanu

07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [07] Shas

04 [05] Meretz

70 [67] Right-Religious

50 [53] Center-Left-Arab

Scenario Poll #2: If Ashkenazi is #2 in Yesh Atid

26 [30] Likud

19 [11] Yesh Atid led by Lapid & Ashkenazi

14 [24] Zionist Union led by Herzog & Livni

13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

13 [08] Bayit Yehudi

09 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [10] Kulanu

07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [07] Shas

05 [05] Meretz

69 [67] Right-Religious

51 [53] Center-Left-Arab

Scenario Poll #3: Merger of Yesh Atid (Lapid), Kulanu (Kahlon) and Ashkenazi into one big center party.

29 [21] New Yesh Atid-Kulanu-Ashkenazi Party

24 [30] Likud

13 [24] Zionist Union

13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

12 [08] Bayit Yehudi

10 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [07] Shas

05 [05] Meretz

Who is most suited to be Prime Minister?

35% Netanyahu, 11% Bennett, 11% Liberman, 9% Ashkenazi, 9% Herzog, 19% none.

Knesset Jeremy Analysis: If Ashkenazi enters politics it has a one to two seat change on the blocs. Regardless the Anti-Netanyahu alliance of Yesh Atid-Zionist Union-Meretz-Joint List fails to get close to forming a bloc large enough to block Netanyahu in a stage 2 situation by the President residence.

In the unlikely scenario of a mega-Lapid-Kahlon-Ashkenazi-party, the party would still fall short of a coalition even after signing coalition agreements with Zionist Union, Meretz and Yisrael Beitenu. The likelihood of the 50-seat-bloc of Likud and the religious parties joining a coalition with Lapid would be extremely low and the Arab parties are against joining any Zionist government.

Panels conducted a poll that was broadcast by the Knesset Channel on Jan 11 2016.

What grade do you give Yesh Atid Chairman Yair Lapid?

30% Average, 27% Bad, 26% Good, 10% Very Good, 7% Don’t know

Does the fact that Lapid has recruited himself to be Israel’s public diplomacy agent overseas added to his value?

52% Yes, 39% No, 9% Don’t Know

How does Lapid’s decision to get closer to the Haredim (ultra-orthodox) change the chances you will vote for him?

51% No change, 36% Lower chance I vote for him, 10% Higher chance I vote for him, 3% Don’t know

If the elections were conducted today – would you consider voting for Yesh Atid led by Lapid?

61% No, 25% Yes, 14% Don’t Know

Of the following leaders, which one is most suited to serve as Prime Minister?

24% Benjamin Netanyahu, 16% Yair Lapid, 11% Naftali Bennett, 10% Issac Herzog, 7% Avigdor Liberman, 4% Moshe Kahlon, 7% Don’t Know, 21% None of the Above