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18 Days to Election – KnessetJeremy Poll Average: Likud 32.1, Yesh Atid 24.4, Smotrich 12.8, Gantz 11.9, Shas 8.1, UTJ 7; Netanyahu at 60

Filed under: Knesset, Weekly Poll Avg — 1 Comment

October 14, 2022

Yesh Atid makes largest gain of 0.9 and Likud takes biggest drop of 0.7 – narrowing the gap between the two bloc leaders to 7.7 seats.

Inside the Netanyahu camp, in addition to the Likud’s drop, Shas dropped slightly with a 0.1 loss. The Anti-Netanyahu Bloc continued to see fluctuation as Gantz made gains of 0.7 & Liberman went up 0.2. Both Labor & Meretz dropped 0.5 each. Another interesting development is that all of the major parties currently polling under the threshold went up slightly – Shaked, Balad, Zalika, Kara & Muchtar.

Netanyahu’s bloc stands at 60. Lapid’s bloc is at 60 with Hadash-Taal and 56 without them.

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Likud	32	32.1	32.8	-0.7
Yesh Atid	24	24.4	23.5	0.9
Religious Zionist	13	12.8	12.8	0
National Unity	12	11.9	11.2	0.7
Shas	8	8.1	8.2	-0.1
UTJ	7	7	7	0
Yisrael Beitenu	6	6	5.8	0.2
Labor	5	5	5.5	-0.5
Meretz	5	4.7	5.2	-0.5
Hadash-Taal	4	4	4	0
Raam	4	4	4	0

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Bayit Yehudi	2.8	2.3	2.2	0.1
Balad	1.7	1.4	1.1	0.3
Zalika Party	1.2	1	0.7	0.3
Kara Party	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.1
Burning Youth	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.1

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Netanyahu Bloc	60	60	60.8	-0.8
Lapid w/H-T	60	60	59.2	0.8
Lapid w/o H-T	56	56	55.2	0.8

Comment

7 Polls from this week

Filed under: Knesset, Polls — Leave a comment

Midgam conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on October 11 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.6% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.2% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

1% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

Kantar conducted a poll of 649 people with a 3.8% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on October 11 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.6% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.4% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.4% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

Everything else under 0.5%

Panels conducted a poll of 700 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Radio 103 FM on October 12 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.6% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.5% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.2% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Panels conducted a poll of 712 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on October 12 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.7% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.7% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.7% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.2% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.2% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 537 people with a 4.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 14 on October 13 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

34 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

07 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.1% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.8% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.5% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.72% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.2% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Kamil Fuchs conducted a poll of 802 people with a 3.5% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on October 13 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

26 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.9% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.7% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.4% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.3% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.3% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Panels conducted a poll of 802 people with a 3.5% margin of error that was published by Maariv on October 14 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

3% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.2% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

1.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.7% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.2% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.2% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Comment

KnessetJeremy Average: Likud 33, Yesh Atid 24, Smotrich 13, Gantz 11, Shas 8; Gantz takes beating & Labor surprises

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October 9, 2022

This week Gantz’s party dropped 1.2 seats, this is the largest drop of any party on a week to week basis since the candidate lists were submitted. Yesh Atid also took a beating, dropping 0.6 since the last average. Yisrael Beitenu took a slight loss of 0.1. Not everything was negative for the anti-Netanyahu bloc as Labor gained 0.5 and Meretz went up 0.3.

Likud gained 0.7 and Smotrich’s party went up 0.4. Smotrich’s gain and Gantz’s loss has created a 2-seat advantage for Smotrich in the fight for third place. This is the best showing for the Netanyahu bloc in the average (60.8 to be exact).

Lapid’s bloc made gains the previous week when the agenda was focused on the possible disqualifications of Chikli, Silman, Balad and Raam. Netanyahu’s bloc made gains this past week when the agenda was on the proposed deal with Lebanon.

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Likud	33	32.8	32.1	0.7
Yesh Atid	24	23.5	24.1	-0.6
Religious Zionist	13	12.8	12.4	0.4
National Unity	11	11.2	12.4	-1.2
Shas	8	8.2	8.2	0
UTJ	7	7	7	0
Yisrael Beitenu	6	5.8	5.9	-0.1
Labor	5	5.5	5	0.5
Meretz	5	5.2	4.9	0.3
Hadash-Taal	4	4	4	0
Raam	4	4	4	0

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Bayit Yehudi	2.64	2.2	2.1	0.1
Balad	1.32	1.1	1.60%	-0.5
Zalika Party	0.84	0.7	0.70%	0
Kara Party	0.72	0.6	0.90%	-0.3
Burning Youth	0.48	0.4	0.50%	-0.1

Comment

4 Polls from the week

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Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 511 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was published by Yisrael Hayom on October 6 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

06 [06] Meretz (Galon)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.7% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Panels conducted a poll of 715 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on October 6 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.3% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.3% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 591 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 14 on October 6 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

11 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.97% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.47% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.34% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

Panels conducted a poll of 705 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was published by Maariv on October 7 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.9% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.6% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Comment

2 More Polls & Updated Knesset Jeremy Average

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October 6, 2022

Kamil Fuchs conducted a poll of 600 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on October 2 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.0% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.1% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [–] 30/40 (Weinstein)

0.1% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Midgam conducted a poll of 501 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Army Radio on October 3 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.5% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.9% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

All other parties under 1%

Updated KnessetJeremy Average (7 Polls released from Sep 28-Oct 3)

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Likud	32	32.1	33.2	-1.1
Yesh Atid	24	24.1	23.8	0.3
National Unity	13	12.4	12.2	0.2
Religious Zionist	12	12.4	12	0.4
Shas	8	8.2	8.2	0
UTJ	7	7	7	0
Yisrael Beitenu	6	5.9	5.6	0.3
Labor	5	5	5	0
Meretz	5	4.9	4.8	0.1
Hadash-Taal	4	4	4.2	-0.2
Raam	4	4	4	0

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Bayit Yehudi	2.4	2.1	1.98%	1.02%
Balad	1.7	1.60%	1.64%	-0.04%
Kara Party	1.2	0.90%	0.34%	0.56%
Zalika Party	1	0.70%	0.94%	-0.24%
Burning Youth	0.6	0.50%	0.70%	-0.20%

Comment

Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Knesset Jeremy

Tag Archive: Jeremy Man Saltan

18 Days to Election – KnessetJeremy Poll Average: Likud 32.1, Yesh Atid 24.4, Smotrich 12.8, Gantz 11.9, Shas 8.1, UTJ 7; Netanyahu at 60

7 Polls from this week

KnessetJeremy Average: Likud 33, Yesh Atid 24, Smotrich 13, Gantz 11, Shas 8; Gantz takes beating & Labor surprises

4 Polls from the week

2 More Polls & Updated Knesset Jeremy Average

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