Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Issue Trends

This week’s polling was shaped primarily by economic concerns and the state budget, alongside continued fallout from the Haredi draft debate. Haredi protests against IDF conscription and allegations of intimidation directed at coalition members opposing the current draft bill featured prominently in the public discourse and appear to have influenced voter sentiment.

Bloc Trends

Across the week’s polling, the Bennett Bloc posted modest gains, increasing by two seats in the Zman Israel poll and by one seat in the Maariv poll. In contrast, the Channel 14 poll showed a one-seat increase for the Netanyahu Bloc, coming at the expense of the Arab Bloc.

Eyes on the Threshold

Religious Zionism (Smotrich) and the Reservists (Yoaz Hendel) each clear the electoral threshold in only one poll. Blue and White (Gantz) and Balad fail to cross the threshold in any poll, continuing a multi-week trend. As a result, all four parties remain at high risk, increasing the likelihood of withdrawals or mergers aimed at avoiding failure to enter the Knesset.

What to Expect Next

Polling volume declined this week due to Hanukkah and may remain limited in the coming days. Politically, attention will stay focused on deliberations over the state budget and the Haredi draft bill, both of which are expected to remain central drivers of the campaign narrative.