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KnessetJeremy Average: Likud 33, Yesh Atid 24, Smotrich 13, Gantz 11, Shas 8; Gantz takes beating & Labor surprises

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October 9, 2022

This week Gantz’s party dropped 1.2 seats, this is the largest drop of any party on a week to week basis since the candidate lists were submitted. Yesh Atid also took a beating, dropping 0.6 since the last average. Yisrael Beitenu took a slight loss of 0.1. Not everything was negative for the anti-Netanyahu bloc as Labor gained 0.5 and Meretz went up 0.3.

Likud gained 0.7 and Smotrich’s party went up 0.4. Smotrich’s gain and Gantz’s loss has created a 2-seat advantage for Smotrich in the fight for third place. This is the best showing for the Netanyahu bloc in the average (60.8 to be exact).

Lapid’s bloc made gains the previous week when the agenda was focused on the possible disqualifications of Chikli, Silman, Balad and Raam. Netanyahu’s bloc made gains this past week when the agenda was on the proposed deal with Lebanon.

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Likud	33	32.8	32.1	0.7
Yesh Atid	24	23.5	24.1	-0.6
Religious Zionist	13	12.8	12.4	0.4
National Unity	11	11.2	12.4	-1.2
Shas	8	8.2	8.2	0
UTJ	7	7	7	0
Yisrael Beitenu	6	5.8	5.9	-0.1
Labor	5	5.5	5	0.5
Meretz	5	5.2	4.9	0.3
Hadash-Taal	4	4	4	0
Raam	4	4	4	0

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Bayit Yehudi	2.64	2.2	2.1	0.1
Balad	1.32	1.1	1.60%	-0.5
Zalika Party	0.84	0.7	0.70%	0
Kara Party	0.72	0.6	0.90%	-0.3
Burning Youth	0.48	0.4	0.50%	-0.1

Comment

4 Polls from the week

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Maagar Mochot conducted a poll of 511 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was published by Yisrael Hayom on October 6 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

06 [06] Meretz (Galon)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.7% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Panels conducted a poll of 715 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Knesset Channel on October 6 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.3% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.3% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 591 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 14 on October 6 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

11 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

11 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.97% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.47% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.34% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

Panels conducted a poll of 705 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was published by Maariv on October 7 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

0.9% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

0.6% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Comment

2 More Polls & Updated Knesset Jeremy Average

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October 6, 2022

Kamil Fuchs conducted a poll of 600 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 13 on October 2 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

05 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

2% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.0% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.1% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [–] 30/40 (Weinstein)

0.1% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

Midgam conducted a poll of 501 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Army Radio on October 3 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

06 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.5% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.9% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

All other parties under 1%

Updated KnessetJeremy Average (7 Polls released from Sep 28-Oct 3)

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Likud	32	32.1	33.2	-1.1
Yesh Atid	24	24.1	23.8	0.3
National Unity	13	12.4	12.2	0.2
Religious Zionist	12	12.4	12	0.4
Shas	8	8.2	8.2	0
UTJ	7	7	7	0
Yisrael Beitenu	6	5.9	5.6	0.3
Labor	5	5	5	0
Meretz	5	4.9	4.8	0.1
Hadash-Taal	4	4	4.2	-0.2
Raam	4	4	4	0

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Bayit Yehudi	2.4	2.1	1.98%	1.02%
Balad	1.7	1.60%	1.64%	-0.04%
Kara Party	1.2	0.90%	0.34%	0.56%
Zalika Party	1	0.70%	0.94%	-0.24%
Burning Youth	0.6	0.50%	0.70%	-0.20%

Comment

KnessetJeremy Average: Likud 32, Yesh Atid 24, Gantz 13, Smotrich 12, Shas 8; Netanyahu Bloc down to 59 as Likud records largest drop

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October 2, 2022

The KnessetJeremy Average shows Netanyahu’s bloc dropping from 60 to 59 seats. Likud took the largest drop of 0.8 of seat. Labor dropped for the second straight week, this week 0.2 compared to 0.4 last week. Hadash-Taal also dropped for the second straight week, with the same marks both weeks.

Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu gained 0.4 and Gantz’s party also gained 0.4 this week. Lapid gained 0.2 for the second consecutive week. Smotrich’s party also gained 0.2 following a 0.2 gain last week.

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Likud	32	32.4	33.2	-0.8
Yesh Atid	24	24	23.8	0.2
National Unity	13	12.6	12.2	0.4
Religious Zionist	12	12.2	12	0.2
Shas	8	8.2	8.2	0
UTJ	7	7	7	0
Yisrael Beitenu	6	6	5.6	0.4
Labor	5	4.8	5	-0.2
Meretz	5	4.8	4.8	0
Hadash-Taal	4	4	4.2	-0.2
Raam	4	4	4	0

Netanyahu Bloc	59
Lapid w/H-T	61
Lapid w/o H-T	57

Party	Seats	This Week	Last Week	Gap
Bayit Yehudi	2.4	2%	1.98%	0.02%
Balad	1.7	1.48%	1.64%	-0.16%
Kara Party	1.2	1.02%	0.34%	0.68%
Zalika Party	1	0.86%	0.94%	-0.08%
Burning Youth	0.6	0.52%	0.70%	-0.18%

Comment

5 Weekend Polls: Netanyahu Bloc takes slight losses

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Midgam conducted a poll of 504 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 12 on September 28 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.6% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.2% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.1% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.1% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

0.9% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.3% [–] Green Leaf

0.0% [–] Democracy & Freedom (Avidar)

0.0% [–] Tzomet (Green)

Panels conducted a poll of 720 people with a 3.7% margin of error that was broadcast by Knesset Channel 99 on September 28 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

1.8% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.5% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.0% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.3% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Direct Polls conducted a poll of 590 people with a 4.4% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 14 on September 29 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

35 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

23 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

11 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

09 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

04 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

04 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.4% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.5% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

Panels conducted a poll of 1433 people with a 2.6% margin of error that was published by Maariv on September 30 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

31 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

24 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

13 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

13 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.0% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.0% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.0% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.4% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Kantar conducted a poll of 652 people with a 4.2% margin of error that was broadcast by Channel 11 on October 1 2022.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)

25 [17] Yesh Atid (Lapid)

12 [16] National Unity (Gantz)

12 [07] Religious Zionist (Smotrich)

08 [09] Shas (Deri)

07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Gafni)

06 [07] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)

05 [07] Labor (Michaeli)

05 [06] Meretz (Galon)

04 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh)

04 [04] Ra’am (Abbas)

Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold

2.2% [04] Bayit Yehudi (Shaked)

1.6% [01] Balad (Abu Shachada)

1.4% [01] Free Economy (Kara)

1.4% [–] New Economy (Zalika)

0.8% [–] Burning Youth (Muchtar)

Comment

Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Knesset Jeremy

Tag Archive: israeli polls

KnessetJeremy Average: Likud 33, Yesh Atid 24, Smotrich 13, Gantz 11, Shas 8; Gantz takes beating & Labor surprises

4 Polls from the week

2 More Polls & Updated Knesset Jeremy Average

KnessetJeremy Average: Likud 32, Yesh Atid 24, Gantz 13, Smotrich 12, Shas 8; Netanyahu Bloc down to 59 as Likud records largest drop

5 Weekend Polls: Netanyahu Bloc takes slight losses

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