Jeremy's Knesset Insider

Smith conducted a poll for Reshet Bet Radio that was broadcast on March 25 2016

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [30] Likud

19 [11] Yesh Atid

17 [24] Zionist Union

12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

11 [08] Bayit Yehudi

08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [10] Kulanu

07 [07] Shas

07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [05] Meretz

66 [67] Right-Religious

54 [53] Center-Left-Arab

Dialog conducted a scenario poll creating a new party list of Kahlon, Saar and Ashkenazi without deciding who would be the leader of the list and read the three names in a random order to each person. They asked 504 people that resulted in a 4.4% margin of error. Haaretz published the poll on March 24 2016

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

23 [10] New Kahlon+Saar+Ashkenazi List

22 [30] Likud

15 [24] Zionist Union

13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

13 [11] Yesh Atid

10 [08] Bayit Yehudi

07 [07] Shas

07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

05 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

05 [05] Meretz

51 [57] Right-Religious

46 [53] Center-Left-Arab

23 [10] New Party

• Note: This means that the fictional party would take seven seats from the center-left bloc and six seats from the right-religious bloc.

Dialog also conducted a regular poll that was not published by Haaretz, although Haaretz did cite Likud, Yesh Atid, Zionist Union and Kulanu’s numbers including the significant movement in Bayit Yehudi and Yisrael Beitenu’s numbers.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [30] Likud

20 [11] Yesh Atid

15 [24] Zionist Union

13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

12 [08] Bayit Yehudi

07 [10] Kulanu

07 [07] Shas

07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

05 [05] Meretz

67 [57] Right-Religious

53 [53] Center-Left-Arab

• Note: Lapid’s  decline in the scenario poll presents us with the information there is a significant number of people who will vote for whoever has the best chance to defeat Netanyahu and they do not seem to be loyal.

Panels conducted a poll for Knesset Channel that was broadcast March 21 2016.

What grade do you give Kahlon for his conduct as Finance Minister?

50% Average, 27% Good, 15% Bad, 6% Very Good

What is Kahlon’s main problem?

37% High housing prices, 20% Not trustworthy, 17% Food items too expensive, 17% He does not get enough support from the Prime Minister, 4% He has no main problem

Why is Moshe Kahlon’s party dropping in the polls?

51% Disappointment as Finance Minister, 23% Weak Knesset list, 15% He needs to  rejoin the Likud, 11% Don’t Know

Center-Right Voters: If there a new Center-Right Party would be created, who should lead it?

32% Don’t Know, 23% Bennett, 18% Lapid, 12% Liberman, 7% Kahlon

Note #1: 32% of Center voters answered Lapid

Will you consider voting for Kulanu in the next election?

13% Yes, 87% No

Kahlon voters: 56% No, 44% Yes

Question for voters who won’t vote Kulanu again: How much did Minister Kahlon’s flip-flop on the Natural Gas Deal influence your decision to not vote for him?

59% No influence, 35% Influenced, 6% Don’t Know

Panels conducted a poll of 511 people with a 4.3% margin of error for Maariv & The Jerusalem Post that was published on March 18 2016

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [30] Likud

21 [11] Yesh Atid

15 [24] Zionist Union

12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List

12 [08] Bayit Yehudi

09 [06] Yisrael Beitenu

07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ

06 [10] Kulanu

06 [07] Shas

06 [05] Meretz

66 [67] Right-Religious

54 [53] Center-Left-Arab

Additional Questions:

On a scale of 1 (bad) to 10 (very good), what grade to you give each minister on the way they do their job?

6.4 Health Minister Litzman (UTJ)

5.8 Transportation Minister Y. Katz (Likud)

5.7 Justice Minister Shaked (Bayit Yehudi)

5.4 Education Minister Bennett (Bayit Yehudi)

5.4 Defense Minister Yaalon (Likud)

5.2 Finance Minister Kahlon (Kulanu)

5.2 Homeland Security Minister Erdan (Likud)

5.0 Culture & Sports Minister Regev (Likud)

4.9 Environment Minister Gabai (Kulanu)

4.9 Social Equality Minister Gamliel (Likud)

4.8 Immigration & Absorption Minister Elkin (Likud)

4.7 Tourism Minister Levin (Likud)

4.7 Science & Technology Minister Akunis (Likud)

4.6 Welfare Minister C. Katz (Likud)

4.5 Energy & Water Minister Steinitz (Likud)

4.5 Housing Minister Galant (Kulanu)

4.2 Agriculture Minister Ariel (Bayit Yehudi)

4.1 Religious Services Minister Azulouy (Shas)

4.1 Interior Minister Deri (Shas)

Benjamin Netanyahu numbers: 4.6 as Prime Minister, 4.1 as Foreign Minister, 3.9 as Communications Minister, 3.9 as Economy Minister and 3.8 Regional Cooperation Minister

Who would you vote for if there was an head to head direct election for Prime Minister of Israel?

56% Netanyahu, 25% Herzog, 19% Don’t Know

49% Netanyahu, 23% Liberman, 28% Don’t Know

47% Netanyahu, 36% Lapid, 17% Don’t Know

44% Netanyahu, 30% Ashkenazi, 26% Don’t Know

40% Netanyahu, 29% Bennett, 31% Don’t Know

If Clinton & Trump are the nominees for President of the United States, which one would you like to see in the White House?

45% Clinton, 33% Trump, 22% Don’t Know

Note #1: Among right-wing voters – 44% Trump, 32% Clinton

Do you think Herzog should join a national unity government led by Netanyahu?

65% No, 21% Yes, 14% Don’t Know

Do you think Lapid should join a national unity government led by Netanyahu?

53% No, 36% Yes, 11% Don’t Know

Do you regret your vote from one year ago?

78% No, 17% Yes, 5% Don’t Know

Note #1: Voters most regretted voting for Kulanu. 2^nd place is Joint List and 3^rd place is the Zionist Union. Yisrael Beitenu is 4th, Likud 5^th, Shas 6^th, Bayit Yehudi 7^th, Yesh Atid 8^th, Meretz 9^th and UTJ 10^th.

Note #2: 17% of Likud voters (the average of all ten parties) regretted their vote. 6% would vote today for Bennett, 6% for Lapid & 5% for Liberman.

Note #3: Yesh Atid’s growth includes 36% of Kulanu voters, 19% of Zionist Union voters, 9% of Meretz voters and 5% of Yisrael Beitenu voters.

Do you think that Netanyahu holding on to the Communications portfolio and his policies are a danger for democracy and freedom of expression?

40% Yes, 29% No because they have no impact, 13% No because I agree with his policies

Note #1: 21% of Likud voters answered yes.

What grade do you give Herzog as Opposition Leader from 1 to 10?

3.5

Is Culture & Sports Minister Regev advancing Sephardi Jews or harming them?

31% Harming, 27% Advancing

Note #1: Among Likud voters – 38% Advancing, 18% Harming

Note #2: Among Sephardi voters – 38% Advancing, 28% Harming

Note #3: Among Ashkenazi voters – 31% Harming, 25% Advancing

Is there an alternative to Netanyahu as Prime Minister?

46% Yes, 41% No, 13% Don’t Know

Note #1: Among Right voters – 53% No, 36% Yes

Note #2: Among Center voters – 60% Yes, 27% No

Note #3: Among Left voters – 75% Yes, 16% No

Note #4: Among Likud voters – 70% No, 23% Yes

When Netanyahu retires, who should replace him as Likud leader?

20% Saar, 11% Yaalon, 11% Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat, 9% Erdan, 7% Y. Katz

Note #1: Among Likud voters – 18% Saar, 15% Erdan, 11% Yaalon, 9% Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat, 8% Y. Katz

Teleseker conducted a poll of 525 people for Channel 1 that was broadcast on March 9 2016

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

25 [30] Likud
21 [11] Yesh Atid
15 [24] Zionist Union
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [05] Meretz
65 [67] Right-Religious
55 [53] Center-Left-Arab