Panels conducted a poll of 851 people with a 3.4% margin of error that was published by Makor Rishon on December 20 2019. The poll was conducted Dec 18.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
38 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
34 [32] Likud (Netanyahu)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
07 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
2.7% [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
2.1% [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
1.6% [00] Otzma (Ben Gvir)
Phase 2 Recommendations:
57 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
56 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)
*Balad which was part of the Joint List withdrew the recommendations of their 3 MKs.
Scenario Poll: Saar leading Likud
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
34 [33] Blue & White (Gantz)
30 [32] Likud (Saar)
14 [13] The Joint List – Hadash-Taal-Raam-Balad (Odeh)
10 [03] HaYamin HeHadash (Bennett)
08 [09] Shas (Deri)
08 [07] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
07 [08] Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman)
05 [06] Labor (A.Peretz)
04 [04] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz & Ben Gvir)
Under 3.25% Electoral Threshold
2.6% [05] Democratic Union (Horowitz)
Phase 2 Recommendations:
60 [55] Right-Religious Bloc (Nominated Netanyahu in Phase 2)
53 [54/57] Center-Left-Arab Bloc (Nominated Gantz in Phase 2)
07 [08/11] Pushing Unity Government (Did not nominate)
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
There Definitely Is a Path for Bibi to Retain the Premiership after the Elections, and That path is Twofold:
I- Electoral Lists Configuration
A- Likud & New Right Must Figure a Way
to Re-Merge or At Least Form One
List.
B- Beyit Yehudi, National Union, and
Otzmah Must Figure a Way to Run
Together On The Same List.
C- No Change is Needed With
Haredim.
2- Campaign Strategy
A- Bibi & Likud Need to Revert Back
to the Vital Center where they
belong even with Bennet &
Shakid onboard Same List.
B- Bibi & Likud need not worry about
being the Party with the most
seats. Only about coalition
garnering 61 Seats or more.
More Details in Further Postings
With Bibi & Likud Reverting to the Center will cost them right wing votes that will shift to the Religious Zionists or to the Haredim, but remain within the right wing. But they will gain center votes from Blue/White, Labor, and Yitzrael Beitenou.
Last Elections Bibi & Likud Shifted to the Right which cost them center votes as well as right wing votes due to the Dynamic of Repulsion within the Right Wing I talked about Last Time.
With New Right Forming the Same List with Likud, there is obviously no chance of them missing the Electoral Threshold, and wasting votes, and all who are unhappy with this arrangement can vote for the Religious Zionists List which could give them seven seats on their own due to the Elimination of the Dynamic of Repulsion within them by moving New Right to New List with Likud, which will create another Dynamic of Repulsion within that list, but no worries since repulsed voters will move to the right and vote for United Right, and not stay at home like lat time, In this scenario there will be no wasted right wing votes & everyone will Pass.
Polls Currently give New Right ~ 7 Seats, but everybody knows they are hovering close to the Threshold with United Right falling Short.
I Just Received My First Informal Survey and in it: The Joint List will receive no less than 14 Seats with Yitzrael Beitenou receiving no more than 5.
More in Further Postings.
Typo in the scenario poll:
04 [04] United Right List + Otzma (R.Peretz & Ben Gvir)
04 [04] United Right List (R.Peretz)
(and Otzma appears again as below threshold)
Mark, I believe the United Right with Otzmah would get 4 Seats, and both would fail to cross the threshold running separately.
Just pointing out that URL and Otzma are each appearing twice in the same poll. Are you saying those are two different scenarios mixed in the same “table”?
Thanks. Indeed a typo. I corrected the template.
Thank you!
But Otzma is still appearing twice, once together with URL and once below the threshold.
But, You are right, a clarification is needed. If United right gets 4 Seats with or without Otzmah, how then could Otzmah amass 2%?
bayit and otzma joined.
https://hamodia.com/2019/12/20/jewish-home-otzma-yehudit-agree-joint-run/
with this it would seem that if democratic party falls below threshold right has a strong chance of 61.
side note:
My personal opinion is that new right should run seperately. I believe they didn’t pass last time because zehut ran as well and stole a buncha votes. tHis time especially, when bibi is indicted, many voters who aren’t religios but vote for likud may be turned off of likud but still want to vote right. new right will give them that chance… (on the other hand, if shaked doesnt join i think he doesn’t have much of a chance of passing…)
Well, at least now that Saar crashed and burned, the polling organizations will stop with the “if Saar was at the head of the Likud, the right wing would gain” silliness.
The reality of current Israeli politics is: you cannot have the government without Bibi. No way no how. If that does not penetrate the thick skulls of some people, we’re going to have a string of elections with no governments formed.