Archive for November, 2018


Panels conducted a poll of 508 people with a 4.4% margin of error for Walla that was published on Nov 21 2018.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud
17 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
13 [08] Bayit Yehudi
12 [24] Zionist Union
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [10] Kulanu
06 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [05] Meretz
05 [01] Orly Levy
04 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

67 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
53 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Scenario Poll #1: With Gantz leading Zionist Union

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud
26 [24] Zionist Union led by Gantz
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
13 [08] Bayit Yehudi
11 [11] Yesh Atid
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [10] Kulanu
05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [05] Meretz
04 [07] Shas
00 [01] Orly Levy
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

65 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
55 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Scenario Poll #2: With Gantz leading a new party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud
19 [–] Gantz Party
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [08] Bayit Yehudi
10 [11] Yesh Atid
09 [24] Zionist Union
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Meretz
05 [10] Kulanu
04 [07] Shas
04 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
00 [01] Orly Levy
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

63 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
57 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Scenario Poll #3: With Saar leading Likud

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [30] Likud led by Saar
17 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
13 [08] Bayit Yehudi
12 [24] Zionist Union
08 [10] Kulanu
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [05] Meretz
06 [01] Orly Levy
05 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

66 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
54 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

 

Additional Questions:

Who is most suited to be Prime Minister?

36% Netanyahu, 14% Don’t know, 12% None of the above, 11% Gantz, 6% Saar, 6% Lapid, 5% Livni, 4% Bennett, 3% Gabbai, 2% Liberman

Was the Prime Minister correct for keeping Defense Minister for himself and not giving it to Naftali Bennett?

44% Yes, 31% No, 31% Don’t know

Was Naftali Bennett correct in his decision not to resign and avoid early elections?

54% Yes, 25% No, 21% Don’t know

Do you support early elections?

46% No, 40% Yes, 14% Don’t know

Note: The polling average HAS BEEN UPDATED at this link: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

Army Radio conducted a poll for Midgam that was broadcast on Nov 20 2018.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud
18 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [24] Zionist Union
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [10] Kulanu
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [07] Shas
06 [01] Orly Levy
04 [05] Meretz
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

68 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
52 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Additional Questions:

The main objective of Netanyahu’s speech was political or national security interests?

58% Political interests, 31% National security interests, 11% Don’t know

Center-left voters: 80% Political interests

Will Netanyahu as Defense Minister do a better job than Liberman in regards to the situation in the south?

52% No difference, 19% Yes, 16% No, 13% Don’t know

Right wing voters: 30% Yes

Note: The polling average HAS BEEN UPDATED at this link: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

Poll #1: Midgam/Channel 13 Poll

Midgam conducted a poll of 539 people for Channel 13 that was broadcast on Nov 19 2018.

Who do you want to see as Defense Minister?

28% Gantz, 20% Don’t know, 13% None of the above, 11% Ashkenazi, 10% Bennett, 7% Netanyahu, 6% Galant, 5% Barak

Do the recent political developments justify or not justify early elections?

46% Justify, 40% Don’t Justify, 14% Don’t know

 

Poll #2: Panel HaMidgam Project/Channel 10 Poll

Panel HaMidgam Project conducted a poll of 701 people for Channel 10 that was broadcast on Nov 19 2018.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [30] Likud
17 [11] Yesh Atid
14 [24] Zionist Union
14 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [05] Meretz
07 [01] Orly Levy
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [10] Kulanu
04 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

61 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
59 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Scenario Poll: With new Gantz Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

27 [30] Likud
15 [–] Gantz Party
14 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [11] Yesh Atid
10 [24] Zionist Union
09 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Meretz
05 [01] Orly Levy
04 [10] Kulanu
04 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

58 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
62 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Note: The polling average HAS BEEN UPDATED at this link: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

Poll #1: Midgam/Channel 13 Poll

Midgam conducted a poll for Channel 13 that was broadcast on Nov 17 2018.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud
18 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [24] Zionist Union
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [10] Kulanu
07 [07] Shas
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [01] Orly Levy
05 [05] Meretz
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

67 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
53 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Scenario Poll: With Gantz as part of Zionist Union

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

26 [30] Likud
24 [24] Zionist Union with Gantz
14 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
09 [08] Bayit Yehudi
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [07] Shas
06 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [01] Orly Levy
04 [05] Meretz
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

61 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
59 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Additional Questions:

Was Liberman’s decision to resign the correct move?

59% Yes, 26% No, 15% Don’t know

What is the main motive behind Liberman’s resignation?

49% Disagreement with cabinet decision, 36% Personal political reasons, 11% Don’t know, 4% Disagreements with the IDF

Is it the right move to appoint Minister Naftali Bennett as Defense Minister?

51% No, 25% Don’t know, 24% Yes

Have recent political developments justified the call for early elections?

53% Yes, 32% No, 15% Don’t know

 

Poll #2: Panels/Maariv Poll

Panels conducted a poll of 586 people with a 4.3% margin of error for Maariv that was published on Nov 16 2018.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

30 [30] Likud
17 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [08] Bayit Yehudi
11 [24] Zionist Union
11 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [05] Meretz
06 [01] Orly Levy
05 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

69 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
51 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Scenario Poll: With Saar leading Likud

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [30] Likud led by Saar
16 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [08] Bayit Yehudi
11 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [24] Zionist Union
08 [10] Kulanu
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [01] Orly Levy
06 [05] Meretz
05 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

70 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
50 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Additional Questions:

Are you pleased or not pleased with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s conduct during the latest round with Hamas?

70% No, 19% Yes, 11% Don’t know

Likud voters: 50% Yes, 44% No, 6% Don’t know

Are you pleased or not pleased with Defense Minister Liberman’s conduct during the latest round with Hamas?

66% No, 20% Yes, 14% Don’t know

Yisrael Beitenu voters: 50% Yes, 41% No, 9% Don’t know

Did Liberman do the right thing by resigning as Defense Minister?

55% Yes, 23% Don’t know, 22% No

Yisrael Beitenu voters: 68% Yes, 23% No, 9% Don’t know

Do you support Liberman’s call for early elections?

43% Yes, 34% No, 23% Don’t know

Who won in the latest round?

Hamas 50%, Don’t know 31%, Israel 19%

Who should replace Liberman as Defense Minister?

None 27%, Galant 23%, Bennett 20%, Erdan 3%, Y.Katz 2%

 

Poll #3: Smith/Channel 20 Poll

Smith conducted a poll of 600 people with a 4 margin of error for Channel 20 that was broadcast on Nov 15 2018.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [30] Likud
16 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [24] Zionist Union
11 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
08 [10] Kulanu
08 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [05] Meretz
06 [01] Orly Levy
05 [07] Shas
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

69 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
51 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Additional Questions:

Who of the following people is most suited to serve as Defense Minister?

30% Netanyahu, 29% No Opinion, 15% Gantz, 9% Lapid, 8% Bennett, 5% Liberman, 4% Gabbai

Likud voters: 60% Netanyahu, 23% Other person, 17% No opinion
Zionist Union voters: 36% Gantz, 15% Gabbai
Yesh Atid voters: 33% Lapid, 16% Gantz, 10% Netanyahu
Bayit Yehudi voters: 31% Bennett, 29% Netanyahu
Yisrael Beitenu voters: 30% Liberman, 20% Netanyahu, 10% Bennett
Kulanu voters: 39% No opinion, 28% Gantz, 18% Netanyahu, 15% Others

Additional note: Netanyahu leads among Haredim, religious and traditional voters. Among secular voters 22% chose Gantz and 18% chose Netanyahu.

Do you agree or disagree with the argument that the ceasefire agreement with Hamas is an act of giving in to terror?

75% Agree, 25% Disagree

Note: The polling average HAS BEEN UPDATED at this link: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

 

 

Midgam conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.4% margin of error for Channel 13 that was broadcast on Nov 15 2018.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

29 [30] Likud
18 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [24] Zionist Union
11 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [07] Shas
06 [05] Meretz
05 [01] Orly Levy
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

68 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
52 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Scenario Poll: With new Gantz Party

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

24 [30] Likud
15 [–] New Gantz Party
13 [11] Yesh Atid
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
10 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [24] Zionist Union
08 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [05] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [07] Shas
05 [05] Meretz
05 [01] Orly Levy
00 [–-] Zehut, Yaalon, Yachad (as other) under 3.25% threshold

62 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition
58 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

Note: The polling average has been updated at: https://knessetjeremy.com/knessetjeremy-polling-average-the-israeli-poll-of-polls/

 

Additional Questions:

Are you pleased with the conduct of PM Netanyahu during the security escalation?

74% No, 17% Yes, 9% Don’t know

Are you pleased with the conduct of DM Liberman during the security escalation?

69% No, 19% Yes, 12% Don’t know

Are you pleased with the conduct of IDF COS Eizenkot during the security escalation?

51% No, 35% Yes, 14% Don’t know

Snapshot on Nov 5 2018, one year before the scheduled Nov 5 2019 Elections:

KnessetJeremy Polling Average – The Israeli Poll of Polls

Current update: Nov 5 2018.

Notes: The KnessetJeremy Polling Average tracks the most recent polling numbers. This page is updated as new polls are added to the site and the KnessetJeremy poll database.

Party KnessetJeremy Polling Average (5 Polls of last 3 months) 2018 AVG (41 Polls) 2017 AVG (44 Polls) 2016 AVG (33 Polls) All Polls (118 Polls from 2015-2018) 2015 Election
Likud 32.4 31 25.9 25.7 27.6 30
Yesh Atid 18 20.6 22.7 20.5 21.4 11
Joint List 12.2 11.6 11.8 12.8 12 13
Zionist Union 11.6 12.4 15 13.6 13.7 24
Bayit Yehudi 10.8 10.5 12 12.2 11.5 8
UTJ 7 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.4 6
Kulanu 6.4 6.8 7.3 6.6 6.9 10
Meretz 6.2 6.5 6 6 6.2 5
Yisrael Beitenu 5.6 5.8 6.5 8.6 6.8 6
Orly Levy/Others 5.4 3.3 0.3 0 1.3 0
Shas 4.4 4.2 5.1 6.5 5.2 7
Current Right-Religious Coalition 66.6 65.6 64.5 67.1 65.6 67
Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition 53.4 54.4 55.5 52.9 54.4 53
Party 118 Poll Avg 118 Poll Placing Avg 2015 Election 2015 Placing Up/Down
Likud 27.6 1st 30 1st 0
Yesh Atid 21.4 2nd 11 4th 2
Zionist Union 13.7 3rd 24 2nd -1
Joint List 12 4th 13 3rd -1
Bayit Yehudi 11.5 5th 8 6th 1
UTJ 7.4 6th 6 9th 3
Kulanu 6.9 7th 10 5th -2
Yisrael Beitenu 6.8 8th 6 8th 0
Meretz 6.2 9th 5 10th 1
Shas 5.2 10th 7 7th -3
Others 1.3 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Current Right-Religious Coalition 65.6 n/a 67 n/a n/a
Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition 54.4 n/a 53 n/a n/a

The current KJPA is currently averaging the 5 most recent polls from the months of August, September & October 2018. It is being compared to an average of 41 polls conducted in 2018, an average of 44 polls conducted in 2017, an average of the 33 polls (32 conducted in 2016 and one 2015 poll), an average of 118 polls conducted since the 2015 election and the 2015 election results.

To provide additional context there is a 118-poll average that presents the average for the entire term in comparison to their ranking in the 2015 election. Coalition vs Opposition numbers include parties that do not pass the threshold such as Yachad, Yaalon and Zehut.

There have been 118 opinion polls released by the top polling companies to the public over the last 43 months since the last election in March 2015.

The 2016 average is of 7 Smith, 6 Panels, 5 Midgam, 5 Geocartography, 4 HaMidgam Project, 3 Maagar Mochot, 2 Teleseker & 1 202 Strategies poll.

The 2017 average is of 11 HaMidgam Project, 8 Panels, 8 Midgam, 8 Geocartography, 4 Maagar Mochot, 3 Smith, 1 Teleseker & 1 Shavkim Panorama poll.

The 2018 average is of 13 Panels, 9 Midgam, 7 HaMidgam Project, 5 Geocartography, 4 Smith and 2 Maagar Mochot poll.