Smith conducted a poll of 500 people with a margin of error of 4.5% for the Jerusalem Post that was published on September 1 2016. The poll was taken on Aug 31.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
27 [30] Likud
20 [11] Yesh Atid
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [24] Zionist Union
12 [08] Bayit Yehudi
09 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Meretz
69 [67] Current Right-Religious Coalition
51 [53] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition
Scenario Poll: New Party of Yaalon+Saar+Kahlon
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
25 [30] Likud
16 [11] Yesh Atid
16 [10] New Party (Yaalon, Saar, Kahlon)
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [24] Zionist Union
11 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Meretz
74 [67] Right-Religious
46 [53] Center-Left-Arab
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Surely Zionist Union won’t do as badly in a real election. I can see Livini jumping ship to join the new party if it happened. Shas votes will surely be soft if the Deri investigation raises it head election time.
ZU depends on who its leader is. Leadership election is next summer.
Although Livni is an ex-Likud MK like Saar, Yaalon and Kahlon, I’m not so sure she would mix in a Likud B type party.
Deri always does better when he is investigated. It brought him 17 seats in 1999.
Jeremy, very interesting insights. Thank you!
Which of the current contenders do you give the best chances to win the leadership elections for ZU and which one of them do you view as the most promising to do well in a general election?
Your welcome.
The elections are about 10 months away. It is too early to make a good guess.