Geocartographia conducted a poll of 500 people that was broadcast on Razi Baraki’s Army Radio Program on Aug 7 2016.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
25 [30] Likud
22 [11] Yesh Atid
16 [08] Bayit Yehudi
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
08 [24] Zionist Union
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [10] Kulanu
05 [05] Meretz
72 [67] Right-Religious
48 [53] Center-Left-Arab
KnessetJeremy Analysis: Last poll that came out was from the same pollster about two weeks ago. Here is the trend: Likud gained 4 seats, Shas 3, Yesh Atid 2 and Yisrael Beitenu 1. Meretz dropped 4 seats, Kulanu lost 3, Zionist Union decreased by 2 and UTJ fell by 1.
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
How is UTJ increasing so much? Supposedly they had a fixed electorate. Is it that more of the Shas vote than was originally though was from Ashkenazi Chareidim looking for an alternative, or solidly Chareidi Sephardim who don’t like Shas so much anymore? Or has the fact that their leader is the most popular (per previous poll) Knesset member in Israel finally done some good? Or does this poll always do this?
very simple, they have more babies than any other sector in Israel.
That’s nothing new, and if anything the birthrate has deceased. It hasn’t translated into this sort of increase in votes until now.
I don’t like Dagani’s methodology but top media outlets such as Army Radio keep paying him to show his results.
UTJ is in my opinion really at 8 seats. Giving UTJ 11 seats is still well within the margin of error of all polls. Their 24-poll-average is 7.5 so they are unlikely to just get 6 seats again.
Dagani actually claims that those extra 3 seats are secular voters that like his economic and social policies. If UTJ does reach double-digits based on that theory it will be an important lesson to pollsters and pundits that religion and state issues mean close to nothing for most non-religious people. As I said, I think they are really at 8 seats.
Shas is probably at 5-6. Polls that have them at 4 or 7 are also within the margin of error.
As I recommend to everyone – look at the poll average that will show you the trend instead of one particular poll. Luckily I do provide that service as well.