Panels conducted a poll for Maariv that was published on May 17 2016.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [30] Likud
18 [11] Yesh Atid
14 [08] Bayit Yehudi
13 [24] Zionist Union
11 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [05] Meretz
06 [10] Kulanu
71 [67] Right-Religious
49 [53] Center-Left-Arab
Scenario Poll #1: If Yaalon replaced Netanyahu as Likud’s leader – who would you vote for?
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
19 [30] Likud led by Yaalon
18 [11] Yesh Atid
17 [08] Bayit Yehudi
13 [24] Zionist Union
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
08 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [05] Meretz
07 [10] Kulanu
70 [67] Right-Religious
50 [53] Center-Left-Arab
Scenario Poll #2: If Yaalon replaced Herzog as the Zionist Union’s leader – who would you vote for?
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
27 [30] Likud
13 [11] Yesh Atid
14 [08] Bayit Yehudi
17 [24] Zionist Union led by Yaalon
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Meretz
06 [10] Kulanu
72 [67] Right-Religious
48 [53] Center-Left-Arab
Scenario Poll #3: If Yaalon ran on a joint list with Kahlon and Saar – who would you vote for?
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [30] Likud
17 [10] Kulanu
13 [08] Bayit Yehudi
12 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [11] Yesh Atid
11 [24] Zionist Union
09 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [07] Shas
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [05] Meretz
62 [57] Right-Religious without Kahlon
41 [53] Center-Left-Arab without Kahlon
17 [10] New Kahlon-Saar-Yaalon list
Netanyahu must be aware that Yaalon is no serious threat to him either within Likud or if he jumps ship to another party. This is probably one reason why he was able to pull the trigger on replacing him with Lieberman as Defense Minister. Even the Kahlon-Saar-Yaalon hypothetical party is a stretch to say the least. I’m surprised the pollsters didn’t add Gabi Ashkenazi to the hypothetical party as well since he was the centrist golden boy a few months ago.