Midgam conducted a poll of 500 people with a 4.5% margin of error for Chaanel 2 that was broadcast on March 5 2016
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [30] Likud
19 [11] Yesh Atid
18 [24] Zionist Union
13 [13] The Joint (Arab) List
11 [08] Bayit Yehudi
08 [06] Yisrael Beitenu
07 [10] Kulanu
07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
06 [07] Shas
05 [05] Meretz
65 [67] Right-Religious
55 [53] Center-Left-Arab
Jeremy's Knesset Insider 
Why isn’t Shas recovering the support lost to Yachad? Which party are the Yachad voters going to? I’d guess Bayit Yehudi, but it seems like all Bayit Yehudi has managed to do is regain support lost to Likud in 2015. By the way, great blog Jeremy.
Shas finished the 2015 Elections in single digits for the first time since 1992. There are many reasons why. Analysis of Yachad voters based on the geographic breakdown of the previous cycle shows that roughly there was a three-way-split where Yachad took 1 seat from Shas, 1 from Bayit Yehudi and 1 seat was former Otzma L’Yisrael voters.
Where do those three seats go today? I’d say they all probably go back to where they were were in 2013 but you would need more in-depth geographical polling to confirm that. Over the last few polls I’ve seen you do have a slight movement of a few 2015 Shas voters towards Likud and Bayit Yehudi. It remains to be seen how Deri keeps Shas going post-Rav Ovadia Yosef and the key is of course their educational system.
Bayit Yehudi went back to its 2013 levels almost immediately after the 2015 Election results and that has been pretty consistent the last year.
And thank you for your kind words. 🙂
Wouldn’t it make sense that part of Labor will split off and join a new party at the center with Kulanu and Yesh Atid building a bloc of 34 that defeats Likud for the premiership? The differences between right-Labor/Kulanu/Yesh Atid are very small and that as long as Yesh Atid is not larger than Likud, Likud will be able to hold on the way it always has.
It is possible Zionist Union splits. Livni might take her MKs somewhere else. Some combo of the losers of the next Labor Leader Primary – Herzog, Yachmovich, Margalit, Cabel, Peretz, Huldai, Bar-Lev or others could leave as well.
Labor has a history of splitting to provide a cushion for a Netanyahu government. The Third Way joined Netanyahu’s first government in the 1990s and of course in Netanyahu’s second government Barak’s Independence Party remained in the coalition after it was clear Labor wanted out. Former Labor Party Leaders Amir Peretz and Amram Mitzna were key members of Netanyahu’s third government as part of the Livni Party.
Even if a Lapid-Kahlon-Rebel Labor MK bloc is larger than Likud in Phase 1 & Phase 2, it remains very difficult for them to create a coalition in Phase 3. People who promote these scenarios usually have serious contradictions such as UTJ joining a government with Lapid, or the Arabs joining a Zionist government. I think there are many policy differences between the three groups of this potential bloc, but again their main obstacle is getting to 61 votes in Phase 3.
If you scroll down you will see my latest piece where I point out the Phase 1 winner (having more seats) is not what determines the next government. Netanyahu did not have the most seats in his first or second governments and during the third government, after the Likud-Yisrael Beitenu split, indeed Lapid had the largest party. So I’d stop reading so much into Phase 1 results. I think I was the only pundit of the last election that said even if Zionist Union won Phase 1 that Netanyahu would form a government because of the Phase 2 & Phase 3 dilemmas that his opposition faced at the time.