Geocartography conducted a poll that was taken out for i24news and released on March 8 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [18] Likud
21 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
13 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
08 [10] Shas
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
08 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
07 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
00 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel) – 3 seats but under 3.25% electoral threshold
70 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
50 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
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No way
Anything done by Avi Dgani should be taken with more salt than the average poll
Possible. The Left has been going nuts this week but I think this poll came out too early. Will be interesting to see if the left drops in the next week.
I think this is only the begining as by election day likud will climb to 30 seats only bibi can lead israel during these turbulent times now is not the time to start looking at a peace deal there is no pArtner and all around us is danger, we need to unite behind bibi and his strength will steer us during these times.
Obama is against bibi because bibi is not a liberial like him they have very diff views and we shouldn’t be scared of him..
I agree now is not the time for peace. If a Arab state was to be created in Judea and Samaria it would become swamped with Jihadis ready to fight against Israel. Any peace deal should involve security cooperation between Israel and the Arab state or Israel just controls the borders.
David,
there is never going to be a time for a peace deal involving a 2-state solution, such a deal would be the equivalence of national suicide!
I think we should differentiate between what we think should happen and what might actually happen.
BTW, The fact that we have no “partner” means that it doesn’t matter too much who gets in.
now is the perfect time for peace! International tensions and anti-semitism is growing against Israel and is hiding behind the guise of Pro-Palestinian activism; in france almost 50% of their hate crimes are against Jews and Jews represent a minuscule proportion of their population. In America, Jewish students are being verbally and physically attacked by Pro-Palestinian “activists”. As soon as there is peace, these perpetrating movements will be deflated and lose any further credibility and there will be an exponential increase in global support for Israel, which would be more than beneficial for Israeli economy, government, and in the event of a conflict with a palestinian state, militarily beneficial.
If Israel wants security, especially with respect to Iran, it needs international support. Herzog can deliver that more easily than Netanyahu, who seems to have gone out of his way to piss off every ally Israel has.
Being seen to want peace goes a long way, even if the actual peace agreement is unlikely to happen in the near future. Appearances matter.
Zach: I want peace too. We all do. How will you get it?
1. Abbas will not sign any reasonable agreement.
2. If he does, he will use his new state as a platform for terror and possibly war.
We are now at the closest to “peace” that we are likely to get for at least 50 years.
The most pro-Likud pollster delivers again.
Havent seen you be very snarky about the pro-Labor pollsters.
Such as? What poll has shown them with a 5 seat lead?
Maybe not a +5 poll but you’ve been near giddy when Labor has been up in polls.
Other than Likud polling well , let us consider the other startling polliing data. The previous 2 polls from this source had Shas at 4 and Yachad at 5. What do we have now, Shas at 8 and Yachad under the minimum. What is going on here? Is this at all believable?
Yeh man! That is really strange. But maybe it is because people (some who used to support BY or Shas) asked in this poll have “temporarily” returned to their former parties, BY and Shas, as they have been afraid that the power of BY/Shas is decreasing.
The fact that only they had Shas at 4 meant there was something wrong with their sample. I guess they fixed it and overcompensated.
How accurate was this pollster on the 2013 elections?
Not Accurate at all.
bhirot2013.co.il/%D7%A1%D7%A7%D7%A8%D7%99-%D7%91%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%AA-%D7%92%D7%99%D7%90%D7%95%D7%A7%D7%A8%D7%98%D7%95%D7%92%D7%A8%D7%A4%D7%99%D7%94.html
Their last poll was 12 days before the election, so it’s hard to say. Hey were closer than Maariv, but like most pollsters they underestimated Yesh Atid and overestimated Bayit Yehudi and Likud Beitenu. They probably would have been closer if they had released a later poll though.
Could be a bit of random noise combining with a real bump for Likud.
Maariv seems like it was the only pollster with clear evidence of a problem (at least more of a problem than the other pollsters).
Just don’t put too much weight on one single poll. Jeremy’s weekly averages will strip out most of the noise and do a better job of capturing any trend.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Israeli_legislative_election,_2013
The real power is in the center. Always. The center moves according to the will of the people. (We observers of political phenomena need to look to where the center actually is). This is always true over time, despite our cynicism about the democratic process. The naked rage of the (far) left was exposed by ranting old men at Rabin Square, the ranting (far) right is fading off into oblivion and irrelevance, as Bibi throws the Bar-Illan speech of 2009 into the garbage bin and we all grow up, sober up and move towards One State, Arab & Jew. These new poll numbers are indicative of a real long-term trend; think otherwise at your own peril, friends: The Two-State Solution and all other mutant offspring of partition-thinking, via the angry left or the angry right, are in their death-convulsions.
One state? Goodbye Jewish state. This right-wing head in the sand mentality that leaving things fester and they’ll get better is delusional.
Baruch David Widen,
if Netanyahu REALLY means that he is now (and in the future???) against a 2-state solution, then it is a great turn of events. BUT if this is now again just one of his tricks and he backtracks on this during the next term, then it is all the same.
I would hope that it is for real, but if it will not be then I think that likudniks like Danon, Elkin, Hotovely, … will all have a choice to make and must take that decision – are they going to stay in Likud and accept Netanyahu’s coat-turning or are they going to do something about it (change leadership or abandon ship in favor of BY).
Now: Terry levine
Excluding Gaza and taking into account that there are NOT really about 3 million arabs in Yesha, a 1-state solution could work. Of course arabs must have the opportunity to leave for an arab country or EU or … (in the framework of a Grand Bargain with the West).
As I said before, what difference does it make? The US will not put real pressure on Abbas, and Abbas will not agree to anything we can accept. And we still need a plebiscite.
In short, the numbers are believable.
The one state solution is the answer, and once we annexx the land we can start offering arabs compensation to leave we can absorb a million arabs only the ones who wany to be israeli and there are plenty of them, I am noy talking about gaza as we have rid ourself of gaza now gaza will become the problem of intl community since they love them so much and they can call gaza plaestine.
As for west bank numbers are way inflated of what the population really is. .
The left should start doing soul searching and come to grips that this whole oslo experiment has been a failiar and the should aploigize to all the jews who lost there lifes because of some bs dream…
This is our land and we want to keep it!
Do you support BY’s one state or would you rather absorb them all and call Area A & B Israel proper?
As I said above, I think the explanation is simple. They realized their Shas-oriented sample was messed up and they overcompensated. Everything else is a side effect.
From your keyboard to G-ds ear
Bennet is right. The only thing that will keep Bibi’s government from giving away Judea or Samaria is a strong Bayit Yehudi in the government. And for all of you still arguing that a 2 state solution is bad for security: this argument is obsolete and is creating more enemies than friends. Holding on to all parts of the Jewish homeland is a moral issue and moral only. Once you legitimize the a claim to your homeland, no one cares about the security obstacles.
How will he give it away if Abbas won’t sign?
Netanyahu is ALWAYS backtracking. He starts with all his hullaballoo about destroying Iran or destroying Hamas (how can he destroy Iran if he can’t destroy Hamas?). Then he backtracks like a wimp. And this is the only choice that is “better” than the rest? It’s rather pathetic because it proves that even the most “right wing” elements have NO solution at all to the survival of the Zionist ideology and state at all. Is anyone thinking about this? HOW LONG can this go on, for the survival of the state and ideology to based merely on the barrel of a gun? Guns cannot forever outdo several hundred million enemies. Is anyone actually paying attention anymore??!!
There is no solution. Deal with it.