Smith conducted a poll that was taken out for Reshet Bet Radio and released on March 6 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
23 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
23 [18] Likud
13 [11] The Joint (Arab) List
12 [20] Yesh Atid
12 [11] Bayit Yehudi
09 [10] Shas
08 [02] Kulanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
06 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
05 [06] Meretz
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
67 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
53 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating Netanyahu in Phase 2)
Bayit Yehudi must have lost some religious voters to Shas.
And UTJ, perhaps also did.
Meretz averaging 5 in the 4 polls, yahad 4. Bibi picking up a seat+ at the expense of the right. Undecided voters breaking to the center – common trend in Israeli elections. Will Bennett go on attack of Bibi over Yideot revelations on concessions to Palestinians? Will Rabin Square demonstration boost TA voter turnout? Will Yachad voters shift to BY or Shas?
What are the percentages of undecided voters? My hunch would be, if they are undecided within the Right or Left they would (I think), say to pollsters “Likud” or “ZU”, even if they may end up voting for another left or right party – because they intend to vote, they are just not sure exactly which party within the bloc to support.
Undecided voters are probably in the center. If they haven’t been sold on Herzog or Bibi at this point, will they go to Yesh Atid or Kulanu? Kulanu has been polling fewer seats than I would have expected but I would not be surprised if on election day it gets 10-11 seats, which could make a dramatic difference in who forms the next government.
There are undecided Shas voters out there; that I can tell you.
Would it be possible to show the changes from poll to poll from each firm? Some firms seem to have different house effects. I notice the previous Smith poll was 67/53 too.
Since people insist on making general political comments and in particular regarding the reaction of the speech, I thought I would mention following claim from the editor-in-chief of Artuz Sheva:
“Do not let anyone tell you stories. I was there. The Israeli media is simply lying; I have no other way to say it. In terms of most of the public in the United States, Binyamin Netanyahu was – and remains – the ultimate leader of the Jewish state. Any other definition of him is fudging the truth.”
http://www.israelnationalnews….
Disclaimer. I am no fan of Artuz Sheva nor Bibi. But the Israeli MSM is the bottom of the barrel.