Haaretz conducted a poll between the 15-17 of February with 458 Israeli Arabs and a 3.8% margin of error.
There are 825,000 Israeli Arab voters eligible to vote in this election.
If Elections were today who would you vote for?
66.9% The Joint (Arab) List (12.4 seats)
14.2% Undecided
5.7% Zionist Union
4.3% Meretz
2.4% Likud
1.7% Yisrael Beitenu
1.2% Other Arab List (led by former MK Asana)
1.2% Shas
1.2% Koolanu
0.7% Bayit Yehudi
0.5% Yesh Atid
0.2% Hope for Change (another Arab party)
0% UTJ
0% Yachad
Israeli Arab Voter Turnout:
19th Knesset: 56%
20th Knesset: (expected) 62.4%
What is more important for Israeli Arab voters?
70% improving economic situation
30% Solving Israeli-Palestinian conflict
Who should your party support to form the next government?
58% Herzog, 16% no one, 15% Don’t know, 11% Netanyahu
Among voters of 3 Arab lists: 62% Herzog, 17% no one, 13% Don’t know, 7% Netanyahu
Among voters of Jewish lists: 65% Herzog, 28% Netanyahu, 4% no one, 3% Don’t know
What is the determining factor for Israeli Arab voters to go out and vote in this election?
58% The Joint List unification
24% I would have voted anyways
11% Racist remarks of politicians
3.5% Jewish State Law
3.5% Other reasons
Should The Joint List join the coalition?
30% Yes, if Herzog is Prime Minister
28% Yes, no matter who is Prime Minister
22% No, to entering coalition but yes to joining a preventative bloc (to prevent Netanyahu)
14% No, to entering coalition and no to joining a preventative bloc
3% Don’t know
Are you pleased with the conduct of the Arab MKs?
35% Neutral
32% Not at all
16% Not really
9% Very much so
8% Mostly so
I think most of them will vote for UAL just because they are Arabs, but the Arabs dont seem to be that pleased with them. If we take this poll seriously most Arabs are worried about their economic situation and not the conflict, the Arab MK’s are worried about the conflict.
+1
Also 58% say that The Joint List should join the coalition with Herzog as PM, and even a 28% with Netanyahu as PM (when the position of this parties until now is do not join to any “zionist coalition”).
Also it seems that they are not very happy with the arab MK´s but the majority support the electoral coalition of the arab parties (this was also was showed by the polls before the rise the electoral threshold).
Very interesting.
Probably means there’s an opportunity for other parties to make inroads among Arab voters in the future. And that we should consider at least some of the 11-12 MKs expect for the Joint List to be “live” in coalition negotiations.
The displeasure at Arab MKs may mean that Arab Israelis are much less left wing than the parties in the Joint List too.
That only 14% totally reject any dialogue is very encouraging.
The integration of Israeli Arabs into the normal give and take of Israeli politics and the Knesset is a healthy development – even an existential imperative. Should a blocking left majority be possible, there are half in half out accommodations that can be made for UAL support…a major committee chairmanship on social and economic development issues. Both Jews and Arabs need to find their better angels of cooperation. For example, as widely attested to, Tibi’s speech on the Shoah was one of the greatest addresses ever given in the Knesset.
I assume this sample includes the Druze. I would have like to see them asked if they plan to vote.
0.2% for hope and change is very depressing.