Panels conducted a poll that was taken out for Maariv/Jerusalem Post and was released on Feb 12 2015.
Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
24 [18] Likud
23 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
13 [11] United Arab List
12 [20] Yesh Atid
11 [11] Bayit Yehudi
07 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
06 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
06 [10] Shas
06 [06] Meretz
05 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)
66 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out nominating a BB coalition)
54 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out nominating a BB coalition)
Any pollster who thinks they can predict either UTJ or UAL is deluding themselves. Both have a static voter base.
Regarding UTJ, as a UTJ voter myself I am getting convinced that the polls have some meaning. Regarding the Arabs, the main issue is that their base is not voting. Imagine if the Arabs in Israel voted in the same percentages as the Jews do? People would take treason a lot more seriously then,
Jeremy, I have some doubts.
Suppose that electoral results are like in this poll: Likud 24, HaMahane Hatzioni 23, United Arab List 13, Yesh Atid 12 and Bayit Yehudi 11.
Suppose also that is formed a unity government between Likud and HaMajane Hatzioni (with haredim parties for example, and the United Arab List, Yesh Atid and Bayit Yehudi are in the opposition). My questions:
1- If the Arab parties form a single faction in the Knesset (13MK´s), would be Ayman Odeh (the leader of Hadash and of the Joint List) the leader of the opposition?
2. If the Arab parties in the Knesset split into different factions (if it´s as in the previous Knesset would be Hadash (5), Raam-Taal (5) and Balad (3), although some positions would rotate ager). Yair Lapid would be then leader of the opposition?
3- Do you think it is likely that the Arab parties will split into diferent factions in the Knesset after the elections?
Todah rabah!
Correction: although some positions would rotate after, in this case MK´s 12th and 13th.
It is not clear that the Opposition Leader is the largest party in the Knesset opposition. That has always been the case but it is a cloudy legal issue. Technically, a majority of the opposition MKs can propose the Opposition Leader, even if that is not the leader of the largest party. When Opposition Leader Shaul Mofaz joined the coalition in 2012, there was talk of Meretz, Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad (14 seats) banding together to propose their own alternative, but in the end they allowed Labor Party Leader Shelly Yachmovich (8 seats) take over as Opposition Leader.
I expect the Arab parties to split after the next government is formed, but it possible they will find their own way to unity since a lot of the current MKs are retiring. BTW, in last Knesset they were 4-4-3.
Thanks Jeremy!
“BTW, in last Knesset they were 4-4-3.”
Yes, I know, but I said that if they got 13 MK´s like in this poll they will be Hadash (5), Raam-Taal (5) and Balad (3), although some positions would rotate after, in this case MK´s 12th and 13th.
Haha!!!
I do not agree entirely with the United Arab list, and I especially do not agree with communist and certain socially right-wing elements within it, but overall it represents a list of tolerance. And although I like Meretz more than the UAL, it is nice to see it overtake the fascist Jewish Home Party!!!!
In this poll
“but overall it represents a list of tolerance.”
A list of tolerance with Zoabi? Good joke!
They tolerate Zoabi. What more could you want? :3
I someone is extreme and cannot accept other opinions than their own, it is you for sure.
So in your language, “tolerance” means treason? In a sense you are correct. The treason of at least some of the Arab parties is tolerated because the Arabs do not vote in large enough numbers to be a threat, and it enables us to tell the world we are tolerant. If the Arab parties had 20 members, say, perhaps we would treat them like everyone else and start banning parties and individuals.
While I am no fan of JH (I used to be) I am not sure how the word “fascist” would apply. Have they proposed an economic system whereby the government controls the economy by giving orders to large corporations? BTW, it would seem the least fascist Knesset member of recent history was the libertarian Moshe Feiglin.